本文選題：老齡人口　切入點(diǎn)：養(yǎng)老模式　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自中國跨入老齡化社會以來,人口老齡化進(jìn)程不斷加快,老齡人群的規(guī)模不斷增大,以致對社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成很大的阻礙,老齡人的養(yǎng)老矛盾日漸突出,人口老齡化對社會經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的影響越來越受到人們的關(guān)注。河北省針對人口老齡化提出了一系列措施,石家莊市也積極應(yīng)對人口老齡化問題,加速推進(jìn)養(yǎng)老服務(wù)事業(yè)發(fā)展,加快全面建設(shè)小康社會建設(shè),在養(yǎng)老服務(wù)、全面協(xié)調(diào)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展方面提出了很多新思路,結(jié)合石家莊的實(shí)際情況,制定了養(yǎng)老服務(wù)體系的“第十三個五年”計(jì)劃,提出了一系列應(yīng)對人口老齡化的政策。然而,我們對石家莊市老齡人口的詳細(xì)狀況及其發(fā)展趨勢,養(yǎng)老模式及養(yǎng)老意愿等都詳細(xì)掌握的還不甚清楚。因此,分析研究石家莊市老齡人口狀況、養(yǎng)老模式及養(yǎng)老意愿,找出存在的問題及其成因,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出相應(yīng)的對策建議,對于市政府制定相關(guān)政策,保證社會和家庭的和諧穩(wěn)定、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展等具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文的研究,主要做了以下幾項(xiàng)工作:(1)基于石家莊市人口普查數(shù)據(jù),對本市老齡人口的數(shù)量、性別比、年齡構(gòu)成、職業(yè)、健康狀況、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平等要素進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)地分析研究,總結(jié)出石家莊市老齡人的現(xiàn)狀及特點(diǎn),發(fā)現(xiàn)規(guī)律與問題。(2)基于石家莊市歷年的統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和人口普查數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用ARIMA模型對石家莊市老齡人口數(shù)量進(jìn)行了趨勢預(yù)測。為避免石家莊市的人口數(shù)據(jù)不足造成失真,首先采用指數(shù)平滑模型對石家莊市老齡人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測,可知預(yù)測模型較好,得出石家莊市未來幾年的老齡人口數(shù)據(jù),然后再用ARIMA模型對石家莊市老齡人口數(shù)量做趨勢預(yù)測,根據(jù)預(yù)測曲線圖可以看出,未來老齡人口的規(guī)模將持續(xù)擴(kuò)大,呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長的態(tài)勢,但老齡人口的增速放緩。(3)根據(jù)對石家莊市老齡人口的問卷調(diào)查,詳細(xì)地分析有關(guān)人口老齡化的各個因素,對男女性別的比例、年齡、職業(yè)、健康狀況、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,用相關(guān)分析方法,從年齡、收入、健康狀況來分析老齡人口對養(yǎng)老模式的選擇及未來養(yǎng)老意愿。(4)基于對石家莊市老齡人口養(yǎng)老模式及其養(yǎng)老意愿的分析研究,找出存在的問題,并提出了可行性的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since China stepped into an aging society, the aging process of the population has been speeding up and the size of the elderly has been increasing, which has caused great obstacles to the social and economic development, and the contradiction between the aged and the aged has become increasingly prominent. People are paying more and more attention to the impact of population aging on social and economic life. Hebei Province has put forward a series of measures aimed at population aging. Shijiazhuang City has also actively responded to the problem of population aging and accelerated the development of pension services. Speeding up the construction of a well-off society in an all-round way, putting forward many new ideas in providing for the aged and coordinating the economic and social development of the city in an all-round way. In light of the actual situation in Shijiazhuang, we have formulated the 13th five-year plan for the pension service system. A series of policies are proposed to deal with the aging population. However, we do not have a clear understanding of the detailed situation of the elderly population in Shijiazhuang and its development trend, the pattern of the aged and the willingness to provide for the aged. This paper analyzes and studies the situation of the aged population in Shijiazhuang City, the old-age model and the old-age willingness, finds out the existing problems and their causes, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the basis of which, the relevant policies are formulated for the municipal government. It is of great practical significance to ensure the harmony and stability of society and family, the sustainable development of social economy, etc. In this paper, we mainly do the following work: 1) based on the census data of Shijiazhuang City, the number of the aged population in this city is analyzed. The factors such as sex ratio, age composition, occupation, health status and economic level were analyzed and studied in detail, and the present situation and characteristics of the elderly people in Shijiazhuang City were summarized. Based on the statistical yearbooks and census data of Shijiazhuang over the years, this paper uses ARIMA model to forecast the trend of the aging population in Shijiazhuang City, in order to avoid distortion caused by insufficient population data in Shijiazhuang City. First, the index smoothing model is used to predict the aging population in Shijiazhuang city, and the prediction model is good. The data of the aging population in Shijiazhuang city in the next few years are obtained, and then the ARIMA model is used to forecast the trend of the aging population in Shijiazhuang city. According to the forecast curve, we can see that the size of the aged population will continue to expand in the future, showing a steady growth trend, but the growth rate of the elderly population will slow down. (3) according to the questionnaire survey of the elderly population in Shijiazhuang City, Detailed analysis of factors related to population ageing, gender ratio, age, occupation, health status, level of economic development, use of relevant analysis methods, from age, income, Based on the analysis of the old-age pension model and its pension intention in Shijiazhuang City, the existing problems are found out, and the feasible countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D669.6

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