【摘要】：考慮一個煤炭勘探開采企業(yè)和一個煤炭銷售運輸企業(yè)組成的兩級煤炭供應(yīng)鏈,建立了煤炭市場需求服從SARMA時間序列過程,煤炭銷售運輸企業(yè)采用MA技術(shù)預(yù)測市場需求和Orderup-to庫存策略的煤炭供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)量化模型,并對該模型的影響因素進行理論分析和算例驗證。研究表明:0ρ1,0θ1時,煤炭供應(yīng)鏈必會產(chǎn)生牛鞭效應(yīng);L≤k≤S時,牛鞭效應(yīng)值較小;季節(jié)性自回歸系數(shù)、季節(jié)性移動平均系數(shù)、季節(jié)性循環(huán)周期、訂貨提前期和歷史數(shù)據(jù)個數(shù)5個參數(shù)對煤炭供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)有直接影響。具體而言,季節(jié)性循環(huán)周期的增大有助于減少煤炭供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng),季節(jié)性自回歸系數(shù)的增大并不總是能減少煤炭供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng),而季節(jié)性移動平均系數(shù)和訂貨提前期的減少有助于減少煤炭供應(yīng)鏈牛鞭效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Considering a two-level coal supply chain composed of a coal exploration and mining enterprise and a coal sales and transportation enterprise, the process of coal market demand from SARMA time series is established. The bullwhip effect quantitative model of coal supply chain using MA technology to predict market demand and Orderup-to inventory strategy is used in coal sales and transportation enterprises. The influencing factors of this model are theoretically analyzed and verified by an example. The results show that when the bullwhip effect is L 鈮，

本文編號：2219396