【摘要】：石油和化工行業(yè)是我國的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)起著重要的作用。隨著我國石油和化工行業(yè)的發(fā)展,大型化工園區(qū)和儲(chǔ)罐區(qū)不斷出現(xiàn)。由于石油和化工行業(yè)的高危險(xiǎn)性,一旦發(fā)生火災(zāi)、爆炸事故,將產(chǎn)生非常嚴(yán)重的后果。多米諾效應(yīng)是指當(dāng)初始事故發(fā)生時(shí),引起臨近的其他單元發(fā)生事故,導(dǎo)致事故的后果大于初始事件。一旦化工園區(qū)或儲(chǔ)罐區(qū)發(fā)生多米諾效應(yīng),往往能造成災(zāi)難性的后果,所以對(duì)化工園區(qū)和儲(chǔ)罐區(qū)的多米諾效應(yīng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析十分重要。本文主要研究內(nèi)容如下：1、2011-2014我國危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品事故統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。2011-2014年我國共發(fā)生821起危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品事故,共造成死亡993人,受傷2960人。本文對(duì)821起事故,從事故發(fā)生的時(shí)間、地點(diǎn)、物理表象、環(huán)節(jié)和原因等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。此外,本文對(duì)2011-2014年我國發(fā)生的多米諾事故進(jìn)行了列舉分析,結(jié)果表明多米諾事故后果更加嚴(yán)重,并存在于我國危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品生產(chǎn)、儲(chǔ)存、運(yùn)輸?shù)拳h(huán)節(jié)。2、基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的多米諾效應(yīng)場景定量分析。運(yùn)用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)多米諾效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析,具有可以考慮多級(jí)多米諾效應(yīng)、多米諾效應(yīng)的協(xié)同效應(yīng)、多事故情景等優(yōu)勢,可以使得多米諾效應(yīng)的分析更加真實(shí)準(zhǔn)確。此外,貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的證據(jù)推理還可以準(zhǔn)確的識(shí)別多米諾效應(yīng)事故情景。本文通過實(shí)例,對(duì)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在多米諾效應(yīng)概率以及多米諾效應(yīng)場景上的應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了分析,并通過改變閾值,研究了閾值對(duì)多米諾效應(yīng)概率的影響。3、基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的多米諾效應(yīng)個(gè)人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。由于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的優(yōu)勢,在多米諾效應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估時(shí)運(yùn)用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)可以使評(píng)估結(jié)果更加真實(shí)。本文建立了基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的多米諾效應(yīng)個(gè)人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法。實(shí)例表明,運(yùn)用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)多米諾效應(yīng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,相同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等值曲線覆蓋范圍更大,評(píng)估結(jié)果更準(zhǔn)確。當(dāng)閾值改變時(shí),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的結(jié)果也會(huì)改變,所以閾值的選取在多米諾效應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估中十分重要。
[Abstract]:Petroleum and chemical industry is one of the pillar industries in China, which plays an important role in the national economy. With the development of petroleum and chemical industry in China, large-scale chemical parks and storage tanks are emerging. Because of the high risk of petroleum and chemical industry, once fire and explosion occur, it will have very serious consequences. Domino effect refers to that when the initial accident occurs, it causes the accident to happen in other adjacent units, and the consequence of the accident is greater than that of the initial event. Once the domino effect occurs in the chemical park or the storage area, it will often cause disastrous consequences, so it is very important to analyze the risk of the domino effect in the chemical park and the storage area. The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1: 1. Statistical analysis of dangerous chemical accidents in China in 2011-2014. There were 821 hazardous chemical accidents in China in 2011-2014, resulting in 993 deaths and 2960 injuries. This paper makes a statistical analysis of 821 accidents in terms of the time, place, physical appearance, links and causes of the accidents. In addition, this paper enumerates and analyzes the Domino accident in China from 2011-2014. The results show that the Domino accident has more serious consequences and exists in the production and storage of hazardous chemicals in China. Transportation and other links. 2, based on Bayesian network domino effect scene quantitative analysis. The application of Bayesian network to the analysis of domino effect has the advantages of considering the multi-stage domino effect, the synergic effect of domino effect and the multi-accident scenario, so that the analysis of domino effect can be more true and accurate. In addition, Bayesian network evidence reasoning can also accurately identify domino effect accident scenarios. In this paper, the application of Bayesian network in domino effect probability and domino effect scenario is analyzed, and the threshold is changed. The influence of threshold on the probability of domino effect. 3. The personal risk assessment of domino effect based on Bayesian network. Because of the advantage of Bayesian network, using Bayesian network in Domino effect risk assessment can make the evaluation results more true. In this paper, a Bayesian network based Domino effect personal risk assessment method is established. The example shows that using Bayesian network to evaluate the domino effect, the coverage of the same risk equivalent curve is larger and the evaluation result is more accurate. When the threshold value changes, the result of risk assessment will also change, so the selection of threshold value is very important in the risk assessment of domino effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京化工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22
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本文編號(hào)：2213862