【摘要】：美國頁巖革命極大地改變了世界能源格局,頁巖油產(chǎn)量快速增長成為2014年6月以來油價斷崖式下跌的直接推動力量。以沙特為首的歐佩克面對形勢驟變,放棄傳統(tǒng)的限產(chǎn)保價策略,俄羅斯等非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國也加入到市場份額戰(zhàn)爭,競相大幅增產(chǎn),導(dǎo)致油價持續(xù)走低。美國頁巖油的韌性遠(yuǎn)超歐佩克預(yù)期,活躍鉆機(jī)數(shù)量下降的同時適應(yīng)市場的能力不斷增強(qiáng),盈虧平衡油價不斷創(chuàng)歷史新低,形成了以沙特為首的歐佩克、以俄羅斯為首的非歐佩克傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)油國和美國三足鼎立,互相合作、競爭和博弈的新原油市場格局。在量與價的平衡中,歐佩克國家不得不重回談判桌。本文結(jié)合減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的背景,分析了減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的動因、分配原則、可能的執(zhí)行結(jié)果,預(yù)判此次協(xié)議的實(shí)際凈減產(chǎn)規(guī)模在70萬~150萬桶/日,2017年布倫特均價將比2016年提高5~10美元/桶。
[Abstract]:The U.S. shale revolution has dramatically changed the world's energy landscape, with rapid growth in shale oil production as a direct driver of the precipitous drop in oil prices since June 2014. In the face of sudden changes in the situation, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, abandoned the traditional strategy of limiting production and keeping prices. Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers also joined the market share war, competing to increase production by a large margin, leading to a continued decline in oil prices. The toughness of US shale oil far exceeds OPEC's expectation that while the number of active drilling rigs is declining and the ability to adapt to the market is constantly increasing, the break-even oil prices are constantly setting new lows, and OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, has formed. Russia led by the traditional oil producers of non-OPEC and the United States tripod, mutual cooperation, competition and game of the new crude oil market pattern. In the balance between volume and price, OPEC countries have to return to the negotiating table. Based on the background of the reduction agreement, this paper analyzes the motivation, distribution principle and possible implementation result of the reduction agreement, predicts that the actual net reduction in this agreement is between 700000 and 1.5 million b / d, and that the average Brent price in 2017 will be $510 / b higher than that in 2016.
【作者單位】： 中國石油天然氣集團(tuán)政策研究室;迪拜石油公司;
【分類號】：F416.22
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本文編號：2207097