本文選題：有源重要用戶 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在未來智能電網(wǎng)中,配有獨(dú)立電源的重要用戶(亦稱有源重要用戶)會(huì)扮演著雙重角色,既是二次能源和用電服務(wù)的使用者,也會(huì)在與電力公司進(jìn)行交易時(shí)利用自備電源接入變成電力的提供者。電力公司原有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理制度將不足以應(yīng)對(duì)有源用戶變化帶來的新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。為了切實(shí)保障用戶和電力公司的利益,針對(duì)有源用戶發(fā)用電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究就顯得十分必要了。本文以未來有源用戶帶來的新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為切入點(diǎn),從用戶投資建設(shè)自備電源決策與經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)、有源用戶發(fā)電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和有源用戶用電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三個(gè)方面展開研究。(1)以分布式電源作為用戶建立自備電源的投資方案,以經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和環(huán)境效益設(shè)立指標(biāo)構(gòu)建基于灰色累積前景理論的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策模型,求出最優(yōu)方案。借鑒風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞思想,以經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元,建立最優(yōu)方案經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞模型,分析經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。(2)提出直線型和層次型兩種有源用戶發(fā)電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞路徑,分別采用馬爾科夫鏈和改進(jìn)的蟻群算法模擬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞過程,計(jì)算由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞帶來的損失,并從不同角度給出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。(3)解析了有源用戶用電雙向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞模式。在滿足激勵(lì)相容理論的基礎(chǔ)上,基于用戶用電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)建了可以適合不同目標(biāo)的負(fù)荷中斷最優(yōu)化分配模型。采用蒙特卡洛模擬了負(fù)荷中斷時(shí),供電公司根據(jù)用戶風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最優(yōu)分配負(fù)荷中斷量的過程,證明了用戶上報(bào)真實(shí)用電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)才可獲得期望最大利潤(rùn)。
[Abstract]:In the future smart grid, important users with independent power sources (also known as active important users) will play a dual role as users of secondary energy and electricity services. They also use their own power access to become power providers when dealing with power companies. The existing risk management system of power companies will not be sufficient to cope with the new risks caused by the change of active users. In order to protect the interests of users and power companies, it is necessary to study the risk of active users. Based on the new risks brought by active users in the future, this paper makes a decision and economic evaluation on the investment and construction of self-provided power supply. Research on three aspects of active users' power generation risk and active user's power consumption risk. (1) using distributed power source as the investment scheme to establish their own power supply, The risk decision model based on the grey cumulative foreground theory is constructed by setting up the indexes of economic and environmental benefit, and the optimal scheme is obtained. Using the idea of risk element transfer for reference, taking economic evaluation index as risk element, establishing the transmission model of risk element for economic evaluation of optimal scheme, and analyzing economic benefits, the paper puts forward two kinds of transmission paths of risk of active users: linear type and hierarchical type. Markov chain and improved ant colony algorithm are used to simulate the process of risk transfer, and the loss caused by risk transmission is calculated, and the risk coping strategy is given from different angles. On the basis of the theory of incentive compatibility, the optimal load interruption allocation model is constructed based on the user's power consumption risk. When Monte Carlo is used to simulate the load interruption, the power supply company distributes the load interruption according to the risk of the user, and proves that the expected maximum profit can be obtained only when the user reports the real power risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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