智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型決策模型研究
本文選題:配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 + 配電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng) ; 參考:《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】:隨著能源危機(jī)和全球變暖問(wèn)題的加重,世界能源正在朝著清潔化、低碳化、高效化的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展,配電網(wǎng)也正在向著具有支持大規(guī)模清潔能源的接入、實(shí)現(xiàn)雙向互動(dòng)的供電、較強(qiáng)供電可靠性等特色智能電網(wǎng)的方向建設(shè)。然而,智能電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的開(kāi)展,必然會(huì)對(duì)配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃結(jié)構(gòu)和市場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響。因此,本文在考慮了智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下的各類(lèi)影響因素,結(jié)合多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化與多準(zhǔn)則決策理論對(duì)配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與運(yùn)營(yíng)進(jìn)行研究是一個(gè)具有意義的課題,其該課題的主要內(nèi)容及成果體現(xiàn)在以下三個(gè)方面:(1)針對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃決策的問(wèn)題,考慮到分布式電源和電動(dòng)汽車(chē)接入對(duì)配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的影響,通過(guò)構(gòu)建定性與定量相結(jié)合混合型指標(biāo)體系,同時(shí)結(jié)合專(zhuān)家對(duì)定性指標(biāo)采用語(yǔ)言評(píng)價(jià)值的模糊性與決策者面對(duì)收益和損失時(shí)不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度,提出了一種基于累積前景理論與云模型的群決策方法。(2)針對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下配電網(wǎng)多市場(chǎng)購(gòu)電的多目標(biāo)決策問(wèn)題,本文在對(duì)配電網(wǎng)面臨多購(gòu)電市場(chǎng)、購(gòu)電流程進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)介的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了不同購(gòu)電方案下配電網(wǎng)收益、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和可靠性這三個(gè)指標(biāo)的求解方法,并結(jié)合和聲搜索算法求最優(yōu)的過(guò)程與VIKOR方法依據(jù)“最大化群體效益、最小化個(gè)體遺憾”生成折衷解的優(yōu)勢(shì),提出一種基于VIKOR與和聲搜索算法的多目標(biāo)最優(yōu)決策方法,該方法既彌補(bǔ)了由多目標(biāo)直接加權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)化為單目標(biāo)信息可能產(chǎn)生丟失的劣勢(shì),又解決了決策方案集中初始方案的設(shè)定和新方案生成的難題。(3)針對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)環(huán)境下配電網(wǎng)售電問(wèn)題,本文以電力需求側(cè)管理——分時(shí)電價(jià)為求解配電網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)性、供電質(zhì)量和負(fù)荷特性這三個(gè)指標(biāo)值的依據(jù),提出了一種基于突變理論的配電網(wǎng)分時(shí)電價(jià)售電的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型多準(zhǔn)則決策方法,這減少了決策過(guò)程中決策者主觀影響因素和人為因素,使得決策更加客觀化和實(shí)際化。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the energy crisis and global warming, the world energy is developing towards cleanliness, low carbonization and high efficiency. The distribution network is also moving towards the power supply with the support of large-scale clean energy access and two-way interactive power supply.Strong power supply reliability and other characteristics of smart grid construction.However, the development of smart grid construction will inevitably have a great impact on the distribution network planning structure and market operation structure.Therefore, in this paper, considering all kinds of influence factors in smart grid environment, combining multi-objective optimization and multi-criteria decision theory to study distribution network planning and operation is a meaningful topic.The main contents and achievements of this project are as follows: 1) aiming at the problem of distribution network planning decision under the environment of smart grid, considering the influence of distributed generation and electric vehicle connection on distribution network planning,By constructing a mixed index system of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and combining the fuzziness of linguistic evaluation of qualitative indicators and the different risk attitudes of decision makers in the face of gains and losses,In this paper, a group decision method based on cumulative foreground theory and cloud model is proposed to solve the multi-objective decision-making problem of multi-market power purchase in smart grid environment. In this paper, the distribution network is faced with multi-purchase market.On the basis of brief introduction of power purchase flow, this paper constructs a method to solve the three indexes of distribution network income, risk and reliability under different power purchase schemes, and combines the harmony search algorithm to find the optimal process and the VIKOR method according to "maximize group benefit".This paper proposes a multi-objective optimal decision method based on VIKOR and harmonic search algorithm, which not only makes up for the disadvantage of losing information from multi-objective directly weighted to single-objective information, but also makes up for the advantages of tradeoff solution generated by minimizing individual regret.In order to solve the problem of distribution network sale under the environment of smart grid, the power demand side management (DSM) -time-sharing price is used to solve the economic problem of distribution network.On the basis of the three index values of power supply quality and load characteristic, this paper presents a risk-type multi-criteria decision method based on catastrophe theory, which reduces the subjective and human factors of decision makers in the decision-making process.Make the decision more objective and practical.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F426.61
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