本文選題：煤層氣　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險因素　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：煤層氣作為清潔的新能源,受到國家的高度重視。在我國“煤、電、油”荒不斷的當(dāng)下,煤層氣的綜合開發(fā)和利用對我國能源業(yè)將產(chǎn)生重大影響意義。煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)將是我國政府未來大力扶持的產(chǎn)業(yè),其規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大勢在必行。然而,目前煤層氣產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國尚屬發(fā)展初期,其開發(fā)項目的風(fēng)險評價分析都不夠成熟和完善,所以從多個角度對開發(fā)生產(chǎn)、管理等方面可能存在的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行篩查與評估是十分重要的。利用對已有文獻(xiàn)及相關(guān)研究成果的分析,提出了從煤層氣項目開發(fā)自身特點(diǎn)中尋找影響因素,通過從地質(zhì)因素、工藝技術(shù)因素、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素和環(huán)境因素四個方面進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié),建立了煤層氣項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。然后通過問卷調(diào)查的方式收集到業(yè)內(nèi)專家對指標(biāo)的兩兩比較打分,運(yùn)用層次分析法與德爾菲法相互校對的方法,對所得數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析得出各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,確定了最能影響煤層氣項目開發(fā)的評價指標(biāo);最后運(yùn)用了模糊綜合評價和專家打分相結(jié)合的方法構(gòu)建了模糊綜合評估模型,并結(jié)合山西晉城潘莊煤層氣項目的問卷調(diào)查得到的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用模型進(jìn)行了實證研究,評估其風(fēng)險大小,并提出相應(yīng)的對策。通過本論文的研究,作者發(fā)現(xiàn)了煤層氣行業(yè)評價體系可以深入研究的許多方面。為今后煤層氣項目評價做了理論基礎(chǔ),取得了一定的研究成果價值。尤其是在評價體系的構(gòu)建方面,值得今后進(jìn)行拓展研究。
[Abstract]:Coal bed methane (CBM), as a clean new energy source, is highly valued by the state. The comprehensive development and utilization of CBM will have a great impact on the energy industry of our country. The CBM industry will be the industry supported by our government in the future, and the expansion of its scale is imperative. At present, the coal bed methane industry is still in the early stage of development in China, and the risk assessment and analysis of its development projects are not mature and perfect, so the development and production of the coal bed methane industry are carried out from a variety of angles. It is very important to screen and evaluate the possible risk factors in management and other aspects. Based on the analysis of the existing literature and related research results, this paper puts forward to seek the influencing factors from the characteristics of CBM project development, through the geological factors, In this paper, the process technical factors, economic factors and environmental factors are summarized and summarized, and the evaluation index system of coal bed methane project risk is established. Then, by means of questionnaire survey, experts in the industry are collected to compare and score the indicators. By using the method of mutual proofreading of AHP and Delphi method, the weight of each index is obtained by analyzing the obtained data, and the evaluation index which can affect the development of CBM project is determined. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and expert scoring, and the data obtained from the survey of Panzhuang coalbed methane project in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, are studied empirically. Through the research of this paper, the author finds out that the evaluation system of coalbed methane industry can be deeply studied in many aspects, and makes a theoretical foundation for the evaluation of CBM projects in the future. Some research results have been obtained, especially in the construction of evaluation system, which is worthy of further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.2

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