本文關(guān)鍵詞： 云模型 單一影響因子 云標(biāo)尺 可能度 三角模糊數(shù) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)評(píng)估　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2016年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：為實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)武器研制項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的客觀精細(xì)化評(píng)估,采用模糊云模型的評(píng)估算法,首先計(jì)算單一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)影響因子對(duì)進(jìn)度、費(fèi)用和性能風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的影響大小;然后,通過加權(quán)求和的方式計(jì)算所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)影響因子產(chǎn)生的總影響;再基于可能度理論,給出三角模糊數(shù)互補(bǔ)判斷矩陣的排序方法,得到綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值;最后,結(jié)合X-51發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)項(xiàng)目研制實(shí)例,通過仿真運(yùn)算,得出單一影響因子對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響大小值和總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序值,明確需要加強(qiáng)監(jiān)控和管理的指標(biāo).仿真結(jié)果表明,驗(yàn)證了構(gòu)建的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)識(shí)別與評(píng)估方法的有效性和可行性,為武器裝備研制項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的管理者提供了決策參考.
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the risk transmission of weapon development project objectively and meticulously, the fuzzy cloud model is used to calculate the influence of single risk conduction factor on schedule, cost and performance risk. Then, the total effects of all risk conduction factors are calculated by weighted summation. Then, based on the possibility degree theory, the sorting method of triangular fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix is given, and the comprehensive risk value is obtained. Finally, combined with the X-51 engine project development example, through the simulation operation, the single influence factor to the risk magnitude value and the total risk ranking value are obtained. Clear the indicators that need to strengthen monitoring and management. The simulation results show that the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed risk conduction identification and evaluation method are verified. It provides a decision reference for the risk transmission manager of weapon equipment development project.
【作者單位】： 空軍工程大學(xué)防空反導(dǎo)學(xué)院;
【基金】：航空科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)資助(20120469801)
【分類號(hào)】：F407.48
【正文快照】： 武器裝備研制是一個(gè)龐大而復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程,包括從立項(xiàng)到定型研制的全過程,由于其規(guī)模大、周期長(zhǎng)、技術(shù)新等特點(diǎn),導(dǎo)致了武器裝備的研制過程充滿了不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性[1].目前,國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于武器裝備研制項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究也較多,Mavris等[2]提出了一種技術(shù)識(shí)別評(píng)估與選擇法(technologyi

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