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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對電力需求的影響及其模型構(gòu)建　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 電力需求 結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 協(xié)整分析 因素分解 高耗能行業(yè)

【摘要】：電力工業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),電力的生產(chǎn)及充足供給是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會進步以及人民生活水平提高的必要條件。改革開放以來,中國的經(jīng)濟增長方式發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷調(diào)整,導(dǎo)致電力供需關(guān)系隨之變化。隨著可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的實施以及經(jīng)濟新常態(tài)的出現(xiàn),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整必將對電力需求造成重要影響。因此,研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對電力需求的影響對一個地區(qū)社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展以及電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃都具有實際意義。本文將定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合,分別從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)、八大行業(yè)以及高耗能行業(yè)三個層面層層遞進地分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對各行業(yè)電力需求的影響。首先,分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對三次產(chǎn)業(yè)電力需求及其結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)理論篩選對電力需求影響較大的指標,并在此基礎(chǔ)上運用協(xié)整理論構(gòu)建產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和電力需求的關(guān)系模型；然后,根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局對國民經(jīng)濟活動的劃分將三次產(chǎn)業(yè)細分為八大行業(yè),分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對八大行業(yè)的電力需求及結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,并運用對數(shù)平均迪式指數(shù)分解法(Log-Mean Divisia Index Method, LMDI)分析影響八大行業(yè)電力需求及其電力強度變化的規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)和效率等因素,找出關(guān)鍵影響因素；最后,進一步研究八大行業(yè)中的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)——工業(yè),根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局對工業(yè)內(nèi)部高耗能行業(yè)的劃分,分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對高耗能行業(yè)的電力需求及結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,運用LMDI分解法找出對高耗能行業(yè)整體的電力需求及其電力強度變化影響較大的關(guān)鍵因素,并運用Panel Data面板數(shù)據(jù)理論分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對各高耗能行業(yè)電力需求的影響。本文以山西省改革開放以來的經(jīng)濟增長和電力需求相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進行實證研究,構(gòu)建了山西省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、經(jīng)濟增長與電力需求的協(xié)整關(guān)系模型,證明了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對電力需求的影響；對山西省八大行業(yè)電力需求及電力強度的因素分解結(jié)果顯示,工業(yè)是影響八大行業(yè)電力需求和電力強度的關(guān)鍵行業(yè)；進一步對工業(yè)內(nèi)部的高耗能行業(yè)電力需求和電力強度進行因素分解,結(jié)果顯示以有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)為代表的高耗能行業(yè)是影響整體電力消費和電力強度的關(guān)鍵行業(yè),因素分解的結(jié)果證實了山西省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對各行業(yè)的電力需求及結(jié)構(gòu)組成有明顯的影響；構(gòu)建了山西省七大高耗能行業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長、電力利用效率與電力需求關(guān)系的面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,結(jié)果顯示對以有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)為代表的電力強度仍然較高的行業(yè)進行結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,降低其電力強度,能夠有效降低電力需求,是山西省未來產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的重點方向。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is the basic industry of the national economy. The production and adequate supply of electric power is a necessary condition for economic development, social progress and the improvement of people's living standard. With the implementation of the sustainable development strategy and the emergence of a new normal economy, China's economic growth mode has changed and the industrial structure has been constantly adjusted, resulting in a change in the power supply and demand relationship along with the implementation of the sustainable development strategy. The adjustment of industrial structure will have an important impact on the power demand. It is of practical significance to study the influence of industrial structure adjustment on power demand for the development of social economy and power network planning in a region. This paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, respectively from three industries. Eight industries and three levels of high energy consumption industry layer by layer analysis of the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand of each industry. First, the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the third industrial electricity demand and its structure. The grey relational theory is used to screen the indexes which have a great influence on the power demand, and on this basis, the relationship model between the industrial structure adjustment and the power demand is constructed by using the co-arrangement theory. Then, according to the division of national economic activities of the National Bureau of Statistics, the three industries are divided into eight industries, and the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the electricity demand and structure of the eight industries is analyzed. Log-Mean Divisia Index Method was used in this paper. LMDI) analyzes the scale, structure and efficiency of power demand and power intensity change in eight industries, and finds out the key factors. Finally, the paper further studies the pillar industry of the eight major industries-industry, according to the division of high-energy industries within the industry by the National Bureau of Statistics, and analyzes the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand and structure of high-energy consuming industries. The LMDI decomposition method is used to find out the key factors that have a great influence on the overall power demand and the change of the power intensity of the high energy consuming industry. And use Panel. Data panel data theory analyzes the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand of high energy-consuming industries. This paper based on the economic growth and power demand related data of Shanxi Province since the reform and opening to the outside world. The cointegration model of industrial structure adjustment, economic growth and power demand in Shanxi Province is constructed, which proves the influence of industrial structure adjustment on power demand. The results of factor decomposition of power demand and power intensity in eight major industries in Shanxi Province show that industry is the key industry affecting power demand and power intensity in eight major industries. Further factor decomposition of power demand and power intensity of high energy consuming industry is carried out. The results show that the high energy consumption industry, represented by non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry, is the key industry affecting the overall power consumption and power intensity. The result of factor decomposition proves that the adjustment of industrial structure in Shanxi Province has obvious influence on the power demand and structure composition of each industry. The panel data model of economic growth, power utilization efficiency and power demand of seven major energy-consuming industries in Shanxi Province is constructed. The results show that the structure adjustment and the reduction of electric power intensity can effectively reduce the power demand in industries represented by non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry. Shanxi Province in the future industrial structure adjustment of the key direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.61;F121.3

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