本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國制造業(yè)企業(yè)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變動(dòng)及影響因素分析　出處：《延邊大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 財(cái)務(wù)因素 KMV模型 制造業(yè)企業(yè)

【摘要】：對我國制造業(yè)行業(yè)而言,信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題是所有經(jīng)營管理者關(guān)心的問題。特別是2008年的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),使得信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)注主體從銀行轉(zhuǎn)移到企業(yè),信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的高低不僅關(guān)乎企業(yè)的未來的信用借貸,甚至通過種種影響,進(jìn)而影響到企業(yè)的盈利,最終影響企業(yè)的命運(yùn)。制造業(yè)是我國的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ),也是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的重要保障,然而由于受到2008年的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的影響,我國的制造業(yè)、船舶、鋼鐵貿(mào)易等均被列入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)行業(yè),而且由于我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢趨緩、成本上升、出口疲軟等原因,使得制造業(yè)未來的發(fā)展面臨較大的挑戰(zhàn),信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題開始暴露并日益嚴(yán)重。當(dāng)然,并不是所有的制造業(yè)企業(yè)都是問題重重,有部分企業(yè)一直保持較低的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有部分企業(yè)經(jīng)歷了較高的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),但通過種種努力,最終摘ST(被特別處理的帽子),成功轉(zhuǎn)型；也有一部分企業(yè)在經(jīng)歷了較高的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)后,一蹶不振,最終走向退市。在這種情況下,研究企業(yè)的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)及其影響因素,具有較大的意義。本文首先梳理了有關(guān)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,匯總整理了有關(guān)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的文獻(xiàn),歸納了學(xué)者們的研究成果以及對本文的啟發(fā)。然后闡述了關(guān)于信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)理論以及我國信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)狀,并從償債能力、營運(yùn)能力、盈利能力、發(fā)展能力的角度對信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素進(jìn)行初步分析。之后,利用SPSS軟件對初始指標(biāo)進(jìn)行因子分析,對初始指標(biāo)進(jìn)行降維,得出信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素。最后,通過實(shí)證分析的判別分析法,得出信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變動(dòng)的影響因素。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,流動(dòng)比率、銷售利潤率、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、資產(chǎn)增長率是影響信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變動(dòng)的主要因素。
[Abstract]:For the manufacturing industry in our country, the credit risk problem is all business managers concerned. Especially the 2008 economic crisis, credit risk transfer makes the main concerns from the bank to the enterprise credit risk level is not only related to the future of the enterprise credit, even by various effects, thereby affecting the profitability of enterprises finally, influence the fate of the enterprise. The manufacturing industry is the foundation of the national economy, and it is an important guarantee for the healthy development of our national economy, however, due to the impact of the economic crisis in 2008, China's manufacturing industry, shipbuilding, steel trade were included in the high risk industry, but because of China's macroeconomic trends slowed the reason, the rising cost of weak exports, the future development of the manufacturing industry is facing greater challenges, credit risk problems begin to emerge and become increasingly serious. Of course, not all manufacturing Enterprises are the problems, some enterprises have maintained low credit risk, some enterprises have experienced higher credit risk, but through the efforts, the final pick ST (special treatment hat), the successful transformation; there is also a part of the enterprise after high unable to get up after a fall of credit risk, and ultimately to withdraw from the market. In this case, the credit risk factors and their effect on the dynamic enterprise, has great significance. This paper reviews the research status quo of credit risk at home and abroad, summarized the related literatures on credit risk, summarizes the research achievements of scholars and the inspiration for this article. Then expounds the related theory about credit risk and credit risk situation of our country, and from the solvency, operating capacity, profitability, factors affecting the development ability of credit risk analysis, The factor analysis of the initial index by using the SPSS software, is used to reduce the dimensionality of the original index, influencing factors of the credit risk. Finally, the discriminant analysis method of empirical analysis, the effect of credit risk factors. The empirical results show that the liquidity ratio, profit rate, asset liability ratio, asset growth rate is the main influencing factors the credit risk changes.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：延邊大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F425;F406.7

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本文編號：1365529