本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于區(qū)間規(guī)劃的能源系統(tǒng)模型研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源系統(tǒng) 不確定性 能源規(guī)劃 碳減排 區(qū)間算法

【摘要】：能源系統(tǒng)涉及社會經(jīng)濟、能源、環(huán)境等領(lǐng)域,包括能源開發(fā)、供應(yīng)、調(diào)度、消費等環(huán)節(jié),研究與分析能源系統(tǒng)、合理規(guī)劃能源結(jié)構(gòu)可對國家、地區(qū)和部門等不同層次能源的需求、供應(yīng)、轉(zhuǎn)換以及新技術(shù)開發(fā)提供科學(xué)以及實用的技術(shù)手段。而分析及優(yōu)化能源系統(tǒng)問題,必然要面臨各種涉及因素的大量不確定性,時間上的長周期性,空間上與周圍環(huán)境的密切聯(lián)系性,能源及能載體流動過程中錯綜復(fù)雜的相互影響關(guān)系；因此,將能源系統(tǒng)中的各類因素數(shù)字化、關(guān)系公式化,采用一定的優(yōu)化方法來處理能源系統(tǒng)中的不確定性,建立合理、有效的能源系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃模型是必要的,也是我們目前所迫切需要的。本文針對中國國家具體的能源背景,開發(fā)了一個針對中國能源系統(tǒng)的“模擬預(yù)測+優(yōu)化”的兩階段的規(guī)劃模型,前端預(yù)測子過程主要介紹了需電量預(yù)測采用的時間序列方法的自回歸移動平均(ARMA)模型；而后以系統(tǒng)成本為最小目標(biāo),充分考慮能源生產(chǎn)、加工、轉(zhuǎn)換、能源中間消費及終端消費、輸配電、進出口以及污染物處理排放等環(huán)節(jié),建立中國能源系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化子模型,優(yōu)化子模型求解基于模擬預(yù)測結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)。模型規(guī)劃期為未來10年,規(guī)劃區(qū)域為全中國,屬于中期大尺度‘經(jīng)濟-能源-電力-環(huán)境’規(guī)劃模型；模型求解采用區(qū)間規(guī)劃方法,系統(tǒng)中的不確定性可得到較好處理；另外,模型還能與國家政策(如碳減排政策)充分結(jié)合。模型對我國一次能源和終端能源的供需結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),污染物排放和綜合成本核算、碳減排等方面綜合分析,對決策者在未來能源規(guī)劃方面有較實際的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The energy system relates to the social economy, energy, environment and other fields, including energy development, supply, scheduling, consumption and other aspects of research and analysis, energy system, reasonable planning of national energy structure, regions and departments at different levels of energy demand, supply, transformation and development of new technologies to provide technical means of scientific and practical. The analysis and optimization of energy system, must face the various factors involved in a large number of uncertainties, long period of time, space and environment are closely interrelated, interaction between the energy and the carrier mobility in the process of perplexing relations; therefore, the energy system in the various factors, digital formula. Some optimized methods to deal with the uncertainty in the energy system, establish a reasonable and effective model of energy system planning is necessary, and we are in urgent need of. In this paper China country specific energy background, planning model is developed for a China energy system "simulation + optimization" is the two stage of the front end sub process mainly introduces the prediction of time series prediction method of the electricity needs of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model; and then to the cost of the system is the minimum target, give full consideration to energy production, processing, conversion, energy consumption and intermediate terminal consumption, transmission and distribution, import and export and processing of pollutants emissions, establish the model of optimal China energy system optimization model based on the data of simulation results. Model of the planning period of the next 10 years, regional planning for the whole China, belonging to mid large scale "economy - energy - power - environment" planning model; the model is solved using interval programming method, the uncertainty of system can get better treatment; in addition, the model also with national policies (such as carbon emission reduction policies) combined with. The comprehensive analysis of China's primary and secondary energy supply and demand structure, power generation industry structure, pollutant emissions and comprehensive cost accounting, carbon emission reduction and other aspects has practical guiding significance for policymakers in future energy planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.2

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