在日益激烈的市場競爭環(huán)境中,很多因素可以影響一個公司發(fā)展的穩(wěn)健性,但是其中最為公司管理者所重視的因素主要集中在以下幾個方面:銷售、潛在客戶、實際客戶、市場內(nèi)部的銷售渠道、不同銷售渠道的庫存以及生產(chǎn)-分銷系統(tǒng)的整合。本文的研究目的是使用仿真的手段,來模擬制造企業(yè)生產(chǎn)-分銷系統(tǒng)中這些因素的影響,進而幫助制造商管理者做出更好地運營決策。在大多數(shù)情況下,制造商會有大量的潛在客戶,這一類客戶對公司產(chǎn)品存在需求且具備購買能力這類客戶與企業(yè)存在著銷售合作機會。經(jīng)過企業(yè)及銷售人員的努力,可以把潛在客戶轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實客戶。而作為客戶本身,其購物滿意度是其是否會從企業(yè)的潛在客戶轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閷嶋H客戶的主要決定因素。而客戶滿意度的高低則是由很多因素共同決定的,比如企業(yè)的缺貨率、營銷水平、送貨提前期等。比如,企業(yè)的潛在客戶會在銷售期開始時對制造商下訂單進行訂貨,但是如果制造商的初試庫存無法滿足其所收到的訂單,則會相應出現(xiàn)缺貨現(xiàn)象,進而造成訂單的丟失和延遲。丟失的訂單會直接影響制造商銷售的市場份額,而延遲訂單則會隨著時間的推移逐步影響企業(yè)的市場份額。此外,對于制造商下游的經(jīng)銷商來說,制造商供貨能力的不足,也會極大地影響經(jīng)銷... 

【文章來源】：北京交通大學北京市 211工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁數(shù)】：93 頁

【學位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
Acknowledgement
摘要
ABSTRACT
1 INTRODUCTION
    1.1 MOTIVATION
    1.2 SYSTEM THINKING
    1.3 GENERALITY OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC APPROACH
    1.4 STOCK AND FLOW DIAGRAM
    1.5 TYPES OF STOCK AND FLOWS
    1.6 INFORMATION FLOW IN MODELING
    1.7 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
    1.8 RESEARCH PROBLEMS
    1.9 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND BOUNDARIES
    1.10 RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE AND MODEL VALIDATION
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS OVERVIEWS
    2.2 BUSINESS PROCESS IMPROVEMENT （COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS）
    2.3 SYSTEM DYNAMICS OVERVIEW
    2.4 THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
    2.5 FEEDBACK THINKING
    2.6 THE ENDOGENOUS POINT OF VIEW
    2.7 SYSTEM STRUCTURE
    2.8 LEVELS AND RATES
    2.9 SIGNIFICANCE OF SYSTEM STRUCTURE BEHAVIOR
3 SIMULATION AND METHODOLOGY
    3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
    3.2 CUSTOMER-ORIENTED BUSINESS PROCESS SYSTEM
        3.2.1 Dynamics Modeling Approach
        3.2.2 Defining Core Elements in Methodology
            3.2.2.1 Stock and Flows
            3.2.2.2 Equations for Stocks
            3.2.2.3 Equations for Flows
    3.3 CUSTOMER-ORIENTED BUSINESS PROCESS INITIAL STAGE MODEL
        3.3.1 Initial Stage Model Overview
        3.3.2 Explaining the Initial Stage Vensim Equations
    3.4 CUSTOMER-ORIENTED BUSINESS PROCESS INTERMEDIATE STAGE MODEL
        3.4.1 Intermediate Stage Model Overview
        3.4.2 Explaining the Intermediate stage Vensim Equations
    3.5 CUSTOMER-ORIENTED BUSINESS PROCESS FINAL STAGE MODEL
        3.5.1 Final Stage Model Overview
        3.5.2 Explaining the Final Stage Vensim Equations
    3.6 PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELING
    3.7 DEFINING CORE ELEMENTS IN METHODOLOGY
        3.7.1 Company Production
        3.7.2 Market Outlet Orders
        3.7.3 Input Testing
    3.8 FIRST PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
        3.8.1 First Model Overview
        3.8.2 Explaining the First Model Vensim Equations
    3.9 SECOND PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
        3.9.1 Second Model Overview
        3.9.2 Explaining the Second Model Vensim Equations
    3.10 THIRD PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
        3.10.1 Third Model Overview
        3.10.2 Explaining the Third Model Vensim Equations
    3.11 FOURTH PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
        3.11.1 Fourth Model Overview
        3.11.2 Explaining the Fourth Model Vensim Equations
    3.12 FIFTH PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MODELING
        3.12.1 Fifth Model Overview
        3.12.2 Explaining the Fifth Model Vensim Equations
4 RESULT ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
    4.1 SYSTEM DYNAMICS IMPLICATION:
        4.1.1 Case Study:AUTOMOBILE LEASING STRATEGY
    4.2 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER-ORIENTED BUSINESS PROCESS
        4.2.1 Initial Stage Model
            4.2.1.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.2.2 Intermediate Stage Model
            4.2.2.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.2.3 Final Stage Model
            4.2.3.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
    4.3 CONCLUDING COMMENTS
    4.4 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION-DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
        4.4.1 Performance Analysis of First Model
            4.4.1.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.4.2 Performance Analysis of Second Model
            4.4.2.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.4.3 Performance Analysis of Third Model
            4.4.3.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.4.4 Performance Analysis of Fourth Model
            4.4.4.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
        4.4.5 Performance Analysis of Fifth Model
            4.4.5.1 Performance Graphs of Simulation
    4.5 CONCLUDING COMMENTS
    4.6 RANDOM ORDER TESTING PATTERNS
        4.6.1 Performance Analysis of Random Orders Testing
            4.6.1.1 Performance Graphs of Random Orders Simulation
5 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS
    5.1 CONCLUSION
    5.2 FUTURE RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS
6 REFERENCES
8 DATASET FOR THE MASTER'S THESIS



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