運(yùn)輸航空公司能耗監(jiān)測方法研究與框架設(shè)計(jì)
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-17 17:07
【摘要】：隨著航空運(yùn)輸規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大,民航業(yè)對能源需求的壓力日益增大。“十三五”規(guī)劃提出綠色發(fā)展的理念,民航節(jié)能減排的任務(wù)更加繁重。航空公司的能源消耗占全民航業(yè)的90%以上,因此航空公司的節(jié)能工作是行業(yè)節(jié)能減排的重中之重。航空公司能耗監(jiān)測體系的建設(shè)使得能源消耗情況透明化,能為節(jié)能減排工作的開展提供一定的決策支持。本文以某航空公司的能耗數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),從航空公司能耗結(jié)構(gòu)的角度出發(fā),分析能耗的影響因素,選定監(jiān)測指標(biāo)。先獲取能耗數(shù)據(jù),再分事前和事后對監(jiān)測到的能耗數(shù)據(jù)分析比較,逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)對能耗的合理監(jiān)測。從節(jié)能減排工作的管理層面和執(zhí)行層面兩方面考慮,實(shí)現(xiàn)能耗監(jiān)測框架的設(shè)計(jì)。本文的研究能為航空公司的能耗監(jiān)測工作提供參考。本文的主要研究工作有:首先,分析運(yùn)輸航空公司能耗結(jié)構(gòu),并按照空側(cè)和地側(cè)將航空公司的能耗分為飛行能耗和地面能耗,再考慮其各自的影響因素并提出節(jié)約用能的措施。參考中國民航節(jié)能減排的指標(biāo),從航空公司的角度出發(fā),建立能耗監(jiān)測指標(biāo)體系。其次,提出航空公司能耗監(jiān)測方法并分析其意義。飛行能耗按照航線、航段、機(jī)型劃分;地面能耗分別劃分為電力、天然氣、外購熱力等分類能耗,由用能的系統(tǒng)或區(qū)域不同再進(jìn)一步將分類能耗數(shù)據(jù)分解為分項(xiàng)能耗。再從時(shí)間維度和空間維度不同的角度考慮,分別提出相應(yīng)的監(jiān)測方法,如果能耗出現(xiàn)異常,能準(zhǔn)確快速地分析出具體出現(xiàn)能耗異常的點(diǎn)源。再次,從節(jié)能減排的管理層面考慮,區(qū)分不同部門扮演的角色,設(shè)計(jì)能耗監(jiān)測組織結(jié)構(gòu)的框架。從航空運(yùn)輸過程分析入手,設(shè)計(jì)監(jiān)測的具體流程,并分析監(jiān)測的技術(shù)手段。監(jiān)測框架的重點(diǎn)是分事前和事后將能耗數(shù)據(jù)與基準(zhǔn)值的比較,找出航空公司的能耗水平與指標(biāo)的差距,并深入分析其原因,提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對措施以達(dá)到節(jié)能的目的。最后,根據(jù)監(jiān)測到的歷史數(shù)據(jù),建立合適的預(yù)測模型,便于節(jié)能進(jìn)展的預(yù)判與決策、能源需求的科學(xué)規(guī)劃。選用ARIMA模型、灰色馬爾科夫、GM-ARMA組合模型、灰色馬爾科夫-ARMA組合模型分別預(yù)測航空公司的月度綜合能耗,并分析每個(gè)預(yù)測模型適用的數(shù)據(jù)特征。預(yù)測模型的特點(diǎn)是滑動(dòng)預(yù)測。結(jié)果顯示,灰色馬爾科夫-ARMA組合模型能較好地描述對航空公司能耗序列。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of the scale of air transportation, the pressure on energy demand of civil aviation industry is increasing day by day. The third five-year Plan put forward the concept of green development, civil aviation energy-saving and emission reduction tasks are more arduous. The energy consumption of airlines accounts for more than 90% of the total civil aviation industry, so the energy saving work of airlines is the top priority of energy saving and emission reduction. The construction of energy consumption monitoring system of airlines makes energy consumption transparent and can provide decision support for energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the energy consumption data of a certain airline, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of energy consumption and selects the monitoring index from the point of view of the energy consumption structure of the airline. The energy consumption data are obtained first and then analyzed and compared before and after the monitoring to realize the reasonable monitoring of energy consumption step by step. The design of energy consumption monitoring framework is realized from the aspects of management and implementation of energy saving and emission reduction. The research in this paper can provide a reference for the energy consumption monitoring of airlines. The main research work of this paper is as follows: firstly, the energy consumption structure of transport airlines is analyzed, and the energy consumption of airlines is divided into flight energy consumption and ground energy consumption according to the air side and ground side, then considering their respective influence factors and putting forward the measures to save energy. According to the index of energy saving and emission reduction of CAAC, the energy consumption monitoring index system is established from the point of view of airline. Secondly, the monitoring method of airline energy consumption is put forward and its significance is analyzed. Flight energy consumption is divided according to route, section and type; ground energy consumption is divided into electric power, natural gas, outsourced heat consumption and so on. The classified energy consumption data are further decomposed into itemized energy consumption by different energy consuming systems or regions. Considering the difference of time dimension and space dimension, the corresponding monitoring methods are put forward. If the energy consumption is abnormal, the point source of the energy consumption anomaly can be analyzed accurately and quickly. Thirdly, from the management level of energy saving and emission reduction, the role of different departments is distinguished, and the framework of energy consumption monitoring organization structure is designed. Starting with the analysis of air transportation process, the monitoring process is designed and the technical means of monitoring are analyzed. The focus of the monitoring framework is to compare the energy consumption data with the reference value in advance and afterwards, to find out the gap between the energy consumption level and the index of the airline company, and to analyze the reasons and put forward the corresponding countermeasures to achieve the purpose of energy saving. Finally, according to the monitored historical data, a suitable prediction model is established, which is convenient for the prediction and decision of energy conservation progress and the scientific planning of energy demand. The ARIMA model, the grey Markov GM-ARMA combined model and the grey Markov ARMA combination model are used to predict the monthly comprehensive energy consumption of the airlines, respectively, and the data characteristics applicable to each prediction model are analyzed. The prediction model is characterized by sliding prediction. The results show that the grey Markov-ARMA combined model can describe the energy consumption sequence of airlines.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國民航大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：V35;TP274
本文編號(hào)：2246564
[Abstract]:With the expansion of the scale of air transportation, the pressure on energy demand of civil aviation industry is increasing day by day. The third five-year Plan put forward the concept of green development, civil aviation energy-saving and emission reduction tasks are more arduous. The energy consumption of airlines accounts for more than 90% of the total civil aviation industry, so the energy saving work of airlines is the top priority of energy saving and emission reduction. The construction of energy consumption monitoring system of airlines makes energy consumption transparent and can provide decision support for energy saving and emission reduction. Based on the energy consumption data of a certain airline, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of energy consumption and selects the monitoring index from the point of view of the energy consumption structure of the airline. The energy consumption data are obtained first and then analyzed and compared before and after the monitoring to realize the reasonable monitoring of energy consumption step by step. The design of energy consumption monitoring framework is realized from the aspects of management and implementation of energy saving and emission reduction. The research in this paper can provide a reference for the energy consumption monitoring of airlines. The main research work of this paper is as follows: firstly, the energy consumption structure of transport airlines is analyzed, and the energy consumption of airlines is divided into flight energy consumption and ground energy consumption according to the air side and ground side, then considering their respective influence factors and putting forward the measures to save energy. According to the index of energy saving and emission reduction of CAAC, the energy consumption monitoring index system is established from the point of view of airline. Secondly, the monitoring method of airline energy consumption is put forward and its significance is analyzed. Flight energy consumption is divided according to route, section and type; ground energy consumption is divided into electric power, natural gas, outsourced heat consumption and so on. The classified energy consumption data are further decomposed into itemized energy consumption by different energy consuming systems or regions. Considering the difference of time dimension and space dimension, the corresponding monitoring methods are put forward. If the energy consumption is abnormal, the point source of the energy consumption anomaly can be analyzed accurately and quickly. Thirdly, from the management level of energy saving and emission reduction, the role of different departments is distinguished, and the framework of energy consumption monitoring organization structure is designed. Starting with the analysis of air transportation process, the monitoring process is designed and the technical means of monitoring are analyzed. The focus of the monitoring framework is to compare the energy consumption data with the reference value in advance and afterwards, to find out the gap between the energy consumption level and the index of the airline company, and to analyze the reasons and put forward the corresponding countermeasures to achieve the purpose of energy saving. Finally, according to the monitored historical data, a suitable prediction model is established, which is convenient for the prediction and decision of energy conservation progress and the scientific planning of energy demand. The ARIMA model, the grey Markov GM-ARMA combined model and the grey Markov ARMA combination model are used to predict the monthly comprehensive energy consumption of the airlines, respectively, and the data characteristics applicable to each prediction model are analyzed. The prediction model is characterized by sliding prediction. The results show that the grey Markov-ARMA combined model can describe the energy consumption sequence of airlines.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國民航大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：V35;TP274
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 曹鵬;蔣濟(jì)友;;公共建筑節(jié)能改造的設(shè)計(jì)和分析[J];自動(dòng)化與儀器儀表;2017年02期
2 姚麗麗;余曉龍;朱峰;萬玉建;談美蘭;;一種基于GA-BP自優(yōu)化的建筑能耗預(yù)測方法研究[J];智能建筑;2016年02期
3 羅鳳娥;陳海川;;基于多因素分析的運(yùn)輸飛機(jī)節(jié)油方法研究[J];中國西部科技;2015年11期
4 孫鵬;張強(qiáng);白云崗;張江輝;鄧曉宇;劉劍宇;;基于馬爾科夫模型的新疆水文氣象干旱研究[J];地理研究;2014年09期
5 李莉娜;楊富強(qiáng);;共贏才是目的——談國際民航組織應(yīng)對氣候變化的市場方案談判[J];世界環(huán)境;2013年05期
6 陳立波;;灰色馬爾科夫法在企業(yè)價(jià)值評估中的應(yīng)用[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2013年15期
7 韓敏;許美玲;;一種基于誤差補(bǔ)償?shù)亩嘣煦鐣r(shí)間序列混合預(yù)測模型[J];物理學(xué)報(bào);2013年12期
8 滕竹;;淺談天然氣的地位及有效利用[J];科技信息;2012年14期
9 郭湘勇;劉宏立;周平;江艷;梁來朋;;基于ZigBee技術(shù)的建筑能耗監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)[J];計(jì)算機(jī)測量與控制;2011年03期
10 顧阿倫;滕飛;王宇;;我國部門減排行動(dòng)可測量、可報(bào)告、可核實(shí)現(xiàn)狀分析[J];氣候變化研究進(jìn)展;2010年06期
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條
1 韓曉;基于熵權(quán)理論的省域二氧化碳排放配額研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2015年
2 張芮;鐵路運(yùn)輸企業(yè)能耗指標(biāo)監(jiān)測與評價(jià)方法研究[D];西南交通大學(xué);2012年
3 劉婧;基于飛行數(shù)據(jù)分析的飛機(jī)燃油估計(jì)模型[D];南京航空航天大學(xué);2010年
，本文編號(hào)：2246564
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/zidonghuakongzhilunwen/2246564.html
最近更新
教材專著
