【摘要】：系統(tǒng)由元件組成，因此元件的可靠性必然直接決定系統(tǒng)的可靠性。在對(duì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行可靠性試驗(yàn)時(shí)，通常要收集系統(tǒng)壽命和系統(tǒng)失效原因這兩項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)，來(lái)對(duì)系統(tǒng)的可靠性進(jìn)行分析。然而在實(shí)際的試驗(yàn)過(guò)程中，往往由于設(shè)備或記錄等客觀因素，可能無(wú)法確切地觀測(cè)到系統(tǒng)失效的原因，即造成系統(tǒng)失效的元件不能確定，而只能得到系統(tǒng)壽命數(shù)據(jù)和可能造成系統(tǒng)失效的元件的集合，這類(lèi)試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)稱(chēng)為屏蔽數(shù)據(jù)。 另外，也可能受試驗(yàn)成本等客觀因素的限制，只能有少量的樣本參與試驗(yàn)，這時(shí)由于樣本信息較少，通常采用Bayes方法進(jìn)行分析。目前利用Bayes方法對(duì)一般的由最小路徑描述的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)可靠性進(jìn)行的研究分析并不多見(jiàn)。 本文基于屏蔽數(shù)據(jù)，在假定元件壽命服從幾何分布的情況下，利用極大似然方法與Bayes方法，對(duì)由最小路徑描述且元件相互獨(dú)立的一般復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的可靠性進(jìn)行了研究。得到如下結(jié)果： 1.基于屏蔽數(shù)據(jù)，針對(duì)由最小路徑描述的一般復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，在元件相互獨(dú)立且服從幾何分布的假定下，給出了元件參數(shù)的極大似然估計(jì)，，進(jìn)而得到元件可靠度的估計(jì)，以及平方損失下系統(tǒng)可靠度的估計(jì)。 2.在逐步增加II型截尾樣本下，結(jié)合一般復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)在元件壽命服從相同及不同參數(shù)幾何分布下的可靠度表達(dá)式，利用Bayes方法，得到平方損失下系統(tǒng)的可靠度Bayes估計(jì)及EB估計(jì)。
[Abstract]:The system is composed of components, so the reliability of the components must directly determine the reliability of the system. In the reliability test of the system, it is usually necessary to collect the data of system life and system failure to analyze the reliability of the system. However, in the actual test process, it may not be possible to accurately observe the causes of system failure due to objective factors such as equipment or records, that is, the components that cause the system failure can not be determined. However, only the system life data and the set of components that may cause system failure can be obtained, and this kind of test data is called shielded data. In addition, it may also be limited by objective factors such as test cost, and only a small number of samples can participate in the experiment. At this time, because of the lack of sample information, Bayes method is usually used for analysis. At present, it is rare to use Bayes method to study and analyze the reliability of complex systems described by the minimum path. Based on shielded data and assuming that the life of components obeys geometric distribution, the reliability of general complex systems described by minimum path and independent of components is studied by using maximum likelihood method and Bayes method. The following results are obtained: 1. Based on the shielded data, for the general complex system described by the minimum path, the maximum likelihood estimation of the component parameters is given under the assumption that the components are independent of each other and subject to the geometric distribution, and then the estimation of the component reliability is obtained. And the estimation of system reliability under square loss. 2. Under the condition of increasing the type II truncated sample step by step, combined with the reliability expression of the general complex system under the same component life and different parameter geometric distribution, the reliability Bayes estimation and EB estimation of the system under square loss are obtained by using Bayes method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：O212.1;N941.4

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