【摘要】：電子產(chǎn)品型號類型多、更新速度快等特點導(dǎo)致了預(yù)測回收量的難度大,因此對第三方維修服務(wù)商而言,電子產(chǎn)品回收量預(yù)測的精度直接影響到企業(yè)的運營成本以及服務(wù)水平.通過企業(yè)真實數(shù)據(jù)的回歸分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品的累計銷售量與累計回收量之間存在顯著的線性相關(guān)性,由此設(shè)計了回歸預(yù)測方法與阻尼趨勢預(yù)測方法相結(jié)合的組合預(yù)測方法,并進行數(shù)值實驗.實驗結(jié)果表明該組合預(yù)測方法在電子產(chǎn)品回收預(yù)測量中能達到比使用單個模型更好的效果,實現(xiàn)了預(yù)測精度的顯著提升.
[Abstract]:Many types of electronic products and rapid renewal speed lead to the difficulty of predicting the amount of recovery, so for third-party maintenance service providers, the precision of forecasting the amount of recovery of electronic products has a direct impact on the operating costs and service level of enterprises. Through the regression analysis of the real data of the enterprise, it is found that there is a significant linear correlation between the cumulative sales volume and the cumulative recovery amount of the product. Therefore, a combined forecasting method combining regression forecasting method and damping trend forecasting method is designed. Numerical experiments were carried out. The experimental results show that the combined forecasting method can achieve better results than using a single model in the prediction of electronic product recovery, and achieve a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;廈門大學(xué)信息與網(wǎng)絡(luò)中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(71371158,71671151,71711530046)
【分類號】：F713.2;O212.1

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