發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-11 14:39

【摘要】：Box-Cox變換和正態(tài)分布有機(jī)結(jié)合構(gòu)建新的Box-Cox正態(tài)分布,可以用來(lái)研究降水極值分布擬合問(wèn)題,采用極大似然估計(jì)方法估計(jì)Box-CoX正態(tài)分布的參數(shù),并基于1951-2010年河北省21個(gè)氣象站逐日降水觀測(cè)資料,擬合逐年日最大降水量序列,借助K-S與A-D方法進(jìn)行擬合優(yōu)度的比較,結(jié)果表明BoX-Cox正態(tài)分布能適應(yīng)不同站點(diǎn)的降雨極值分布的擬合,且大部分優(yōu)于降雨極值分布擬合中常用的廣義極值(GEV)分布、Weibull分布、Gamma分布,因而對(duì)掌握降雨極值分布規(guī)律,分析降水極值重現(xiàn)期、時(shí)空特征和變化趨勢(shì)具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Box-Cox transform and normal distribution are combined to construct new Box-Cox normal distribution, which can be used to study the fitting problem of precipitation extremum distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of Box-CoX normal distribution. Based on the daily precipitation observation data of 21 meteorological stations in Hebei Province from 1951 to 2010, the daily maximum precipitation series was fitted, and the goodness of fit was compared with K-S and A-D methods. The results show that the BoX-Cox normal distribution can fit the rainfall extreme value distribution at different stations, and most of them are better than the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution, which are commonly used in the fitting of rainfall extreme value distribution. Therefore, it is of great significance to master the distribution law of rainfall extremum and analyze the recurrence period, space-time characteristics and variation trend of precipitation extremum.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)與管理學(xué)院;首都師范大學(xué)資源環(huán)境與旅游學(xué)院;首都師范大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(No.11231010,11471223) 北京市教委重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(No.KZ201410028030) BCMIIS項(xiàng)目的資助
【分類號(hào)】：O213

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