本文選題：廣義要素成本上漲 + 馬爾可夫鏈�。� 參考：《數(shù)理統(tǒng)計與管理》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文在近年來廣義要素成本上漲的背景下,利用HS98章商品2010-2014年的月度數(shù)據(jù),對我國出口商品的國際市場競爭力進行中長期動態(tài)預測。文中選取顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)(RCA)作為表征貿(mào)易商品競爭力的度量指標,結合要素成本上漲的背景,利用馬爾可夫鏈動態(tài)模型,對我國外貿(mào)的中長期趨勢進行預測。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):短期內(nèi)在廣義要素成本上升的背景下,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的大部分商品及第二產(chǎn)業(yè)中紡織原料及紡織品受到較大沖擊;從長期趨勢來看,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)維持了穩(wěn)定的比較優(yōu)勢,而對于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)其影響效應分化,紡織原料及紡織品、輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品、陶瓷及玻璃制品的國際競爭優(yōu)勢呈明顯下跌趨勢,而礦產(chǎn)品、普通和精密機械、木制品和紙制品的國際市場競爭力并無明顯變化,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)受到的長期影響要比短期更顯著。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the rise of generalized factor cost in recent years, this paper makes a long-term dynamic prediction of the international market competitiveness of China's export commodities by using the monthly data from 2010-2014 of HS98 chapter. In this paper, the index of comparative advantage (RCA) is chosen as the index to measure the competitiveness of trade commodities, and the dynamic model of Markov chain is used to predict the long-term trend of China's foreign trade. It is found that in the short term, most of the commodities in the primary industry and textile raw materials and textiles in the secondary industry have been greatly impacted under the background of rising broad factor costs, and the first industry has maintained a stable comparative advantage in view of the long-term trend. For the secondary industry, the international competitive advantage of textile raw materials and textiles, light industrial products, ceramics and glass products showed a marked decline, while mineral products, ordinary and precision machinery, There is no obvious change in the competitiveness of wood and paper products in the international market, and the long-term impact on the secondary industry is more significant than in the short term.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學經(jīng)濟學院國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易系;廈門大學兩岸和平發(fā)展協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;北京大學經(jīng)濟學院國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易系;香港中文大學經(jīng)濟系;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項目的階段性成果(15CJL052) 教育部哲學社會科學研究重大課題攻關項目(13JZD010),教育部人文社會科學重點研究基地重大項目(16JJD790036)的資助
【分類號】：O211.62
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本文編號：1904320