本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人獸共患病 自然宿主 中間宿主 跨物種傳播模型 有效政策措施　出處：《北京建筑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：人獸共患病是指由同一種病原體引起,且能夠在人類與動物之間進(jìn)行自然傳播的疫病.人類與動物越來越頻繁的接觸增加了人類患人獸共患病的概率.而人獸共患病的爆發(fā),不僅威脅著人類身體健康,重創(chuàng)養(yǎng)殖業(yè)發(fā)展,同時也會造成巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,對人類生產(chǎn)生活產(chǎn)生極大影響.目前,我們還不能對人獸共患病病原體傳播機(jī)制完全掌控,也沒有制定出對其進(jìn)行有效干預(yù)的防控措施.了解人獸共患病的傳播機(jī)理,將有利于其防治工作的進(jìn)一步展開.人獸共患病是一種能夠在不同物種間進(jìn)行傳播的傳染性疾病.大多數(shù)人獸共患病是動物源的,人類能夠直接地從自然宿主感染疾病或間接地通過中間宿主感染疾病.不同物種在人獸共患病傳播過程中起到不同作用.本文構(gòu)建三種常見類型的跨物種人獸共患病傳播模型,分別為自然宿主—人類模型(TYPE 1),自然宿主—中間宿主—人類模型(TYPE 2),自然宿主—中間宿主(變異)—人類模型(TYPE 3).對于三種傳播形式,當(dāng)沒有中間宿主介入時(TYPE 1),自然宿主決定疾病爆發(fā)與否,以及爆發(fā)后的流行趨勢.當(dāng)RN01時(RN0指自然宿主中疾病傳播基本再生數(shù)),人獸共患病能夠在人群中爆發(fā);而隨著自然宿主種群規(guī)模增大,疾病流行程度也會增強(qiáng).但如果有中間宿主介入(TYPE 2、TYPE 3),當(dāng)RN01時,人獸共患病同樣能夠在人群中爆發(fā),并不受RI0(RI0指中間宿主中疾病傳播基本再生數(shù))是否大于1的影響;但中間宿主介入后,自然宿主對人獸共患病流行趨勢的影響降低,而中間宿主對疾病流行趨勢的影響反而更強(qiáng),隨著中間宿主種群規(guī)模的增大,疾病流行程度會增強(qiáng).為應(yīng)對突發(fā)人獸共患病危機(jī),本文還在原有模型基礎(chǔ)上,針對不同物種構(gòu)建相應(yīng)政策措施模型,并對不同措施效果進(jìn)行分析.三種政策措施均可以對人獸共患病流行產(chǎn)生抑制作用,降低基本再生數(shù).無論是否采取政策措施,疾病爆發(fā)的條件均是自然宿主基本再生數(shù)大于1;而疾病消亡的條件是各物種種群中的基本再生數(shù)均小于1.同時,飼養(yǎng)動物(中間宿主)的介入,使得在疾病流行時,對飼養(yǎng)動物的防控效果優(yōu)于對野生動物(自然宿主)的防控.最后,本文選取幾類常見的甲型流感傳播類型,用以補(bǔ)充說明無人際傳播人獸共患病模型.四種模型分別為無中間宿主且具有人際傳播模型(TYPE 1-1)、無中間宿主且無人際傳播模型(TYPE 1-2)、有中間宿主且具有人際傳播模型(TYPE 2-1)、有中間宿主且無人際傳播模型(TYPE 2-2).其中,TYPE 1-2、TYPE 2-2因病原體無人際傳播能力,在相同條件下,疾病流行程度較其他兩種低.
[Abstract]:Zoonosis is a disease that is caused by the same pathogen and can spread naturally between humans and animals. More frequent contact between humans and animals increases the probability of zoonosis in humans. Not only does it threaten human health and damage the development of aquaculture, but it also causes huge economic losses and has a great impact on human production and life. At present, we cannot fully control the transmission mechanism of zoonotic pathogens. There is no effective intervention to prevent and control the disease. Understand the transmission mechanism of zoonosis. Zoonosis is an infectious disease that can spread between different species. Most zoonosis is animal origin. Human beings can infect diseases directly from natural hosts or indirectly through intermediate hosts. Different species play different roles in the transmission of zoonosis. They are natural host human model TYPE 1, natural host intermediate host human model TYPE 2, natural host human model TYPE 3, respectively. When there is no intermediate host intervention, the natural host determines the disease outbreak or not, and the epidemic trend after the outbreak. But if an intermediate host is involved in TYPE2TYPE3, when RN01 occurs, zoonosis can also erupt in people. It was not affected by whether the number of basic regeneration of disease transmission in intermediate host of RI0(RI0 was greater than 1, but the influence of natural host on epidemic trend of zoonosis was decreased after intervention of intermediate host. However, the intermediate host has a stronger effect on the epidemic trend. With the increase of the population size of the intermediate host, the epidemic degree of the disease will increase. In order to deal with the crisis of zoonotic disease, this paper is still based on the original model. The corresponding models of policies and measures were constructed for different species and the effects of different measures were analyzed. The three kinds of policies and measures can inhibit the prevalence of zoonosis and reduce the number of basic regeneration. The condition of disease outbreak is that the basic regeneration number of natural host is greater than 1, and the condition of disease extinction is that the number of basic regeneration in each species population is less than 1. At the same time, the intervention of breeding animals (intermediate host) makes the disease prevalent. The control effect of breeding animals is better than that of wild animals (natural hosts). Finally, this paper selects several common types of influenza A transmission. The four models are non-intermediate host and interpersonal transmission model (TYPE 1-1), no intermediate host and no interpersonal transmission model (TYPE 1-2), with intermediate host and interpersonal transmission model. TYPE 2-1, with intermediate host and no interpersonal transmission model, TYPE 2-2. TYPE 1-2 TYPE 2-2 is not capable of interpersonal transmission due to pathogens. Under the same conditions, the prevalence of the disease was lower than that of the other two.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：O175

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本文編號：1550909