【摘要】：以淮河紫羅山子流域出口日平均流量數(shù)據(jù)為研究對(duì)象,基于超閾值(POT)模型,采用最大似然法估計(jì)廣義Pareto(GP)分布參數(shù)并計(jì)算出重現(xiàn)期水平和相應(yīng)的置信區(qū)間范圍。擬合優(yōu)度檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示POT模型在擴(kuò)大洪水樣本提高使用效率的同時(shí),對(duì)樣本經(jīng)驗(yàn)點(diǎn)據(jù)的適線性也較好。通過對(duì)5種時(shí)段長(zhǎng)度的水文實(shí)測(cè)流量數(shù)據(jù)重現(xiàn)期計(jì)算發(fā)現(xiàn):實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)長(zhǎng)度對(duì)重現(xiàn)期計(jì)算結(jié)果不確定性有重要影響,在工程水文中推薦選取恰當(dāng)?shù)闹眯艆^(qū)間上界作為設(shè)計(jì)值加以解決。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of daily average discharge at the outlet of Ziluoshanzi basin of Huaihe River, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution parameters based on the super-threshold (POT) model, and the level of recurrence period and the corresponding confidence interval range are calculated. The results of goodness of fit test show that the POT model not only expands the flood sample to improve the efficiency, but also has a good linearity for the sample experience points. It is found that the length of the measured data has an important effect on the uncertainty of the calculated results through the calculation of the recurrence period of the hydrological measured discharge data of five periods of time. In engineering hydrology, it is recommended to select the appropriate upper bound of confidence interval as the design value to solve the problem.
【作者單位】： 環(huán)境保護(hù)部核與輻射安全中心;
【基金】：科技部國(guó)家軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃(2013GXS4B075) 環(huán)保部公益性行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)(201309056)
【分類號(hào)】：TV122

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1 E·賴尼斯 ,宋萌勃;用置信區(qū)間進(jìn)行極值洪水的統(tǒng)計(jì)估算[J];長(zhǎng)江水利教育;1991年04期

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