基于Copula函數(shù)的洪峰流量與洪水歷時聯(lián)合分布研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-17 08:04
【摘要】：基于Copula函數(shù)分析了oV江河大廟峽流域洪峰流量與洪水歷時的聯(lián)合頻率分布特征,得出GumbelHougaard Copula函數(shù)可較好地擬合2者的相關(guān)關(guān)系,以及反映2變量在"且"和"或"組合情況下的發(fā)生頻率和重現(xiàn)期。在同頻率設(shè)計情況下,2變量發(fā)生組合受災(zāi)風(fēng)險的概率很低。在同一重現(xiàn)期下的歷時與不同重現(xiàn)期下的洪峰組合頻率隨重現(xiàn)期的減小而增大,5 a一遇洪峰對應(yīng)的歷時在31.7~40.2 h的可能性較大,10 a一遇的洪峰歷時在45 h以上的概率較小。另外,當(dāng)歷時重現(xiàn)期低于200 a一遇時,流域遭遇200 a一遇以上洪峰的概率極低。
[Abstract]:Based on the Copula function, the joint frequency distribution characteristics of Hong Feng discharge and flood duration in the Damiaoxia basin of the oV River are analyzed. It is concluded that the GumbelHougaard Copula function can better fit the correlation between Hong Feng discharge and flood duration. It also reflects the occurrence frequency and recurrence period of the two variables under the combination of "and" or ". In the case of the same frequency design, the probability of combination disaster risk of 2 variables is very low. The frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period under the same recurrence period and different recurrence period, and the probability of the corresponding duration of 5 a encounter with Hong Feng was 31.7 ~ 40.2 h, and the frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period. The probability of Hong Feng lasting more than 45 hours in 10 a was smaller. In addition, when the duration of recurrence period is less than 200 a, the probability of encountered more than Hong Feng in 200 a is very low.
【作者單位】： 天津大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院;廣東省水利水電科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：廣東省水利科技創(chuàng)新項目(2015-12)
【分類號】：TV122
[Abstract]:Based on the Copula function, the joint frequency distribution characteristics of Hong Feng discharge and flood duration in the Damiaoxia basin of the oV River are analyzed. It is concluded that the GumbelHougaard Copula function can better fit the correlation between Hong Feng discharge and flood duration. It also reflects the occurrence frequency and recurrence period of the two variables under the combination of "and" or ". In the case of the same frequency design, the probability of combination disaster risk of 2 variables is very low. The frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period under the same recurrence period and different recurrence period, and the probability of the corresponding duration of 5 a encounter with Hong Feng was 31.7 ~ 40.2 h, and the frequency of Hong Feng combination increased with the decrease of recurrence period. The probability of Hong Feng lasting more than 45 hours in 10 a was smaller. In addition, when the duration of recurrence period is less than 200 a, the probability of encountered more than Hong Feng in 200 a is very low.
【作者單位】： 天津大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院;廣東省水利水電科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：廣東省水利科技創(chuàng)新項目(2015-12)
【分類號】：TV122
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
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