【摘要】：航道的通航條件按照通航時間的長短劃分可分為常年通航航道和季節(jié)通航航道。常年通航的航道,即為船舶全年提供通航的航道;季節(jié)通航的航道,即只能在特定時間(如非封凍季節(jié))或水位期(如中洪水期或中枯水期)內(nèi)通航的航道。云南省由于地形和水資源空間分布不均勻,受各種因素的限制,導致內(nèi)河航運發(fā)展相對落后,未能得到充分發(fā)揮內(nèi)河航運的潛力。本文對云南全省和六大水系降水徑流進行了趨勢性分析及周期性分析。根據(jù)水資源量的分布特征,劃分潛在的水源區(qū)和受水區(qū),采用統(tǒng)計方法對水源區(qū)和各受水區(qū)進行豐枯遭遇分析,并利用貝葉斯仿真模型模擬設定情景下水源區(qū)與各受水區(qū)的豐枯組合狀態(tài),計算在此情景下對調(diào)水有利和不利的風險概率,為內(nèi)河航運管理部門建立水系連通提供依據(jù)和參考。主要研究內(nèi)容及結(jié)論如下:(1)采用Mann-Kendall秩次相關檢驗法和五點滑動平均法分析了云南省全省和六大水系的降水及徑流特征、變化趨勢。研究得出云南全省的年降水量和徑流量有減小的趨勢,但減小的趨勢并不顯著。六大流域年降水都有下降趨勢,其中紅河流域和珠江流域年降水量有明顯的減小趨勢,瀾滄江流域、怒江流域、伊洛瓦底江流域、長江流域的年降水量減小趨勢并不顯著;而六大流域的年徑流量均呈下降趨勢,且下降趨勢均不顯著。(2)采用小波分析方法對云南省全省的降水及徑流進行了周期性分析,得到了全省和六大流域降水及徑流的主周期和次周期。對于云南省全省,降水存在著23年和30年大尺度的周期過程,主周期為30年;徑流存在著23年的周期過程。對于六大水系,紅河流域、瀾滄江流域降水存在著23年和30年大尺度周期,主周期為30年;怒江流域、伊洛瓦底江流域降水存在著29年大尺度周期;長江流域、珠江流域降水存在著23年和30年的大尺度周期;主周期為23年。紅河流域、瀾滄江流域、長江流域、珠江流域徑流存在著23年的大尺度周期;怒江流域、伊洛瓦底江流域徑流存在著29年大尺度周期。(3)采用統(tǒng)計方法分析了潛在水源區(qū)和受水區(qū)豐枯異步、豐枯同步的概率,滇西北、滇西、滇南作為滇中地區(qū)的三個水源區(qū),滇西北水源區(qū)和滇中受水區(qū)之間豐枯異步性頻率最大,而滇西水源區(qū)和滇中受水區(qū)之間調(diào)水有利頻率最大。滇中受水區(qū)之間豐枯遭遇分析可以發(fā)現(xiàn)相隔較遠的兩個受水區(qū)之間豐枯異步頻率較大,有利于調(diào)水;相鄰兩個受水區(qū)之間豐枯異步頻率較小,不利于調(diào)水。(4)建立了貝葉斯仿真模型,分析了基于歷史數(shù)據(jù)和假定不同情境條件下的調(diào)水風險,闡述了三大源區(qū)與三大受水區(qū)之間復雜的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,直觀定量地反映水源區(qū)與受水區(qū)之間豐枯遭遇概率變化規(guī)律,得出了不同水源區(qū)和受水區(qū)的豐水年、平水年、枯水年的概率情況,以及調(diào)水有利和調(diào)水不利的頻率。
[Abstract]:The navigable conditions can be divided into perennial navigable channel and seasonal navigable channel according to the length of navigation time. A channel for navigation all year round, that is, a channel that provides navigation for ships throughout the year, or a channel that is navigable only at a particular time (such as during a non-frozen season) or in a period of water level (such as a mid-flood period or a mid-dry season). Due to the uneven distribution of topography and water resources, and limited by various factors, inland water shipping development in Yunnan Province is relatively backward, and the potential of inland water shipping has not been fully developed. In this paper, the trend and periodicity of precipitation runoff in Yunnan Province and six major water systems are analyzed. According to the distribution characteristics of water resources, the potential water source area and the water receiving area are divided, and the bumping and withering encounter of the water source area and the water receiving area are analyzed by statistical method. The Bayesian simulation model is used to simulate the combination states of water source and each water area in the given scenario, and the risk probability of favorable or unfavorable water transfer in this scenario is calculated, which provides the basis and reference for the inland river shipping management department to establish the water system connection. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) the characteristics and trends of precipitation and runoff in Yunnan Province and six major water systems were analyzed by Mann-Kendall rank correlation test and five-point moving average method. The results show that the annual precipitation and runoff in Yunnan Province are decreasing, but the decreasing trend is not significant. The annual precipitation in the six major river basins has a downward trend, among which the annual precipitation in the Red River Basin and the Pearl River Basin has a significant decreasing trend, while the annual precipitation in the Lancang River Basin, the Nujiang River Basin, the Irrawaddy River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin is not significant. However, the annual runoff of the six major watersheds shows a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend is not significant. (2) the precipitation and runoff of Yunnan Province are analyzed periodically by using wavelet analysis method. The main and secondary periods of precipitation and runoff in the whole province and six major watersheds have been obtained. For Yunnan Province, there are 23 years and 30 years of large-scale periodic processes of precipitation, the main period is 30 years, and runoff exists 23 years of cycle process. For the six major water systems, the red river basin, the Lancang river basin and the Lancang river basin precipitation has 23 years and 30 years large scale period, the main period is 30 years, the Nujiang river basin, the Ilowaddy river basin precipitation has 29 years large scale period, the Yangtze river basin, The precipitation in the Pearl River basin has a large scale period of 23 years and 30 years, and the main period is 23 years. The runoff in the Red River Basin, Lancang River Basin, Yangtze River Basin and Pearl River Basin has a large scale cycle of 23 years. The runoff of the Irrawaddy River basin has a large scale period of 29 years. (3) the probability of synchronism between the potential water source region and the water receiving area is analyzed by statistical method. The northwest, western and southern Yunnan are the three water source regions in the middle of Yunnan. The asynchronous frequency between the source region of northwest Yunnan and the water receiving area of central Yunnan is the largest, while the favorable frequency of water transfer between the source region of western Yunnan and the receiving area of central Yunnan is the largest. From the analysis of the occurrence of abundant and withered water between the two water-receiving areas in central Yunnan, it can be found that the asynchronous frequency between the two water-receiving areas is higher, which is favorable to water transfer, and the asynchronous frequency between the two adjacent water-receiving areas is relatively small. (4) the Bayesian simulation model is established, the risk of water transfer based on historical data and different scenarios is analyzed, and the complex internal relations between the three major source areas and the three major water receiving areas are expounded. The probability change law of abundant and dry encounter between source region and water receiving area is reflected intuitively and quantitatively, and the probability of abundant water year, average water year, dry water year and the frequency of favorable and unfavorable water transfer are obtained in different water source areas and water receiving areas.
【學位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV68;TV213.4

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