【摘要】：洮河流域位于甘肅西南部,是黃河上游的重要支流。地勢南高北低,地形從青藏高原至黃土高原,特征差異明顯,上游濕潤多雨,下游干燥少雨。本文以該流域為研究對象,評價了流域自然環(huán)境狀況、社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況,水資源總量及開發(fā)利用狀況;利用洮河干流測站自建站至2015年實測月降水、徑流資料,運用Mann-Kendall檢驗法、小波分析法分析洮河流域水資源變化特征;利用國際主流的6種ENSO指數(shù),通過延時相關性分析方法,計算并分析了ENSO指數(shù)與流域降水、徑流的相關性;本文選取阿拉伯海、孟加拉灣、中國南海三處位于亞洲周邊海域的海表溫度數(shù)據(jù),通過延時相關性分析方法,計算并分析了其與洮河流域降水、徑流的相關性;最后利用國內(nèi)主流的幾種生態(tài)徑流計算方法計算了洮河干流最小生態(tài)徑流量。通過計算分析研究,主要結論如下:(1)當前流域水資源可利用量相對富裕,但流域用水量呈增長趨勢,2010年—2014年年用水量平均增長率為3%。上游生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化使流域產(chǎn)流區(qū)產(chǎn)流能力下降。洮河流域降水量的變化趨勢也顯示出下降的態(tài)勢。洮河徑流量的變化具有15年的典型周期,以及5—7年的不明顯周期。1989年以后,呈現(xiàn)出明顯的減少趨勢,1997年通過置信度為0.05顯著性檢驗,徑流量下降的趨勢更加顯著。(2)國際主流的ENSO指數(shù)中Nino1+2區(qū)海溫指數(shù)與洮河流域降水、徑流相關性最好,與各站降水量同期相關系數(shù)達到普遍在0.4以上,延時相關系數(shù)在0.7以上,達到中度相關水平;干流各站的徑流量具有一致性,僅計算與紅旗站徑流量的相關系數(shù),同期相關系數(shù)為-0.57,中度負相關。因此,Nino1+2指數(shù)相比其他ENSO指數(shù)能夠較好的反映ENSO事件對洮河流域的影響,該指數(shù)作為一種新的影響因子用于研究全球氣候對洮河水資源的演變影響。(3)洮河徑流量與阿拉伯海、孟加拉灣、中國南海三處海域海表溫度的相關性較低,但與孟加拉灣海溫相關性較好。而中國南海、孟加拉灣的海表溫度與洮河流域的降水量的相關性普遍較高,同期相關系數(shù)在0.5-0.7之間,延時相關系數(shù)最大值都出現(xiàn)在延時6個月,普遍在0.7以上,最大相關性是南海的海表溫度與碌曲站的的降水量,延時相關系數(shù)高達-0.81,達到高度相關水平,且延時月數(shù)為穩(wěn)定的6個月,對于洮河流域水資源可以進行6個月的預警期,意味著監(jiān)測每年年初的南海海溫狀況可以得知夏季降水量的大致狀況,這對于洮河水資源防汛、利用規(guī)劃具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。而阿拉伯海的海表溫度與洮河流域的降水量的相關性相對較低。因此孟加拉灣、中國南海的海表溫度可以作為亞洲季風對洮河流域的影響因子。海洋能夠儲存氣候信息,所以海洋溫度隨著氣候變暖而升高,本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),海溫與流域降水、徑流多呈現(xiàn)負相關,說明氣候變暖的趨勢下流域水資源量呈減少趨勢。(4)全球變暖導致洮河流域水資源具有減少的趨勢,流域上游因生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化產(chǎn)流能力具有下降的趨勢,而流域用水量呈現(xiàn)著增長的趨勢,因此,有必要劃定水資源開發(fā)的紅線,確定洮河應當具有的生態(tài)徑流。應用多種生態(tài)徑流計算方法計算比較分析后,確定以逐月最小徑流法確定的月徑流系列作為流域各測站監(jiān)測洮河徑流的預警值,該系列也可作為流域用水量的年內(nèi)分配參考,避免水資源季節(jié)性開發(fā)過度。
[Abstract]:Taohe River Basin is located in the southwest of Gansu Province and is an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.The topography is high in the South and low in the north.The topography is from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Loess Plateau.The characteristics of the Taohe River Basin are different obviously.The upper reaches are wet and rainy,the lower reaches are dry and rainless.This paper takes the Taohe River Basin as the research object,and evaluates the natural environment,the Using the data of monthly precipitation and runoff measured by Taohe main stream station from its establishment to 2015, using Mann-Kendall test method and wavelet analysis method to analyze the characteristics of water resources change in Taohe River basin, using six kinds of ENSO index of international mainstream, calculating and analyzing the correlation between ENSO index and basin precipitation and runoff through the method of delay correlation analysis. In this paper, the sea surface temperature data of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in the waters around Asia are selected, and the correlation between the sea surface temperature data and the precipitation and runoff in the Taohe River basin is calculated and analyzed by the method of delay correlation analysis. Through calculation and analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) At present, the available water resources in the basin are relatively abundant, but the water consumption in the basin shows an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 3% from 2010 to 2014. The deterioration of the upstream eco-environment makes the Runoff-Producing capacity of the basin decrease. The variation trend of precipitation in the Taohe basin also shows a downward trend. The variation of runoff in Taohe River has a typical period of 15 years and a non-obvious period of 5-7 years. After 1989, the trend of runoff decrease is obvious, and the trend of runoff decrease is more significant after the test of 0.05 significance of confidence in 1997. (2) The sea surface temperature index of Nino1+2 area in the ENSO index of the International mainstream, and the precipitation and runoff facies of Taohe River basin. The correlation coefficient is the best, and the correlation coefficients of precipitation synchronization with each station are generally above 0.4, and the delay correlation coefficients are above 0.7, reaching the moderate correlation level. As a new influencing factor, the index is used to study the effect of global climate on the evolution of water resources of Taohe River. (3) The correlation between the runoff of Taohe River and the sea surface temperature of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea is relatively low, but it has a good correlation with the sea surface temperature of the Bay of Bengal. In the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the correlation coefficient between the sea surface temperature and the precipitation in the Taohe River Basin is generally high, and the correlation coefficient is between 0.5 and 0.7 in the same period. The maximum value of the delay correlation coefficient appears in the delay of 6 months, which is generally above 0.7. The maximum correlation is between the sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the precipitation at Luqu Station. The delay correlation coefficient is as high as - 0.81. It is of great significance for flood control and utilization planning of Taohe River water resources. The correlation between SST and precipitation in the Taohe River Basin is relatively low. Therefore, SST in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea can be used as an impact factor of Asian monsoon on the Taohe River Basin. Negative correlation shows that the water resources in the basin are decreasing under the trend of climate warming. (4) The water resources in the Taohe River basin are decreasing due to global warming, and the runoff production capacity in the upper reaches of the basin is decreasing due to the deterioration of the ecological environment, while the water consumption in the basin is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to draw a red line for water resources development. The monthly runoff series determined by the monthly minimum runoff method can be used as the early warning value for monitoring the runoff of the Taohe River. The series can also be used as a reference for the annual distribution of water consumption in the basin to avoid the seasonal overdevelopment of water resources.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213

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