本文選題：用水結(jié)構(gòu) + 驅(qū)動力�。� 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水是生命之泉，生產(chǎn)之要，生態(tài)之基。短缺的水資源導(dǎo)致各個用水部門不能享有應(yīng)有的水量配置。準(zhǔn)確合理的預(yù)測用水結(jié)構(gòu)可更好地為水資源開發(fā)利用和最嚴(yán)格水資源模擬調(diào)控提供服務(wù)和幫助，對于區(qū)域水資源配置和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展具有重要意義。而區(qū)域用水結(jié)構(gòu)演變規(guī)律是個復(fù)雜過程，驅(qū)動因素對用水結(jié)構(gòu)的影響有時十分活躍。論文以安徽省為研究區(qū)域，運(yùn)用多種理論與方法模型對區(qū)域用水結(jié)構(gòu)演變規(guī)律及驅(qū)動因子進(jìn)行研究分析。取得的主要研究成果是： （1）利用信息熵的方法分析探討了安徽省用水結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展趨勢。結(jié)果表明：安徽省用水結(jié)構(gòu)的主要特點(diǎn)是農(nóng)業(yè)用水占主導(dǎo)關(guān)鍵作用，工業(yè)及生活用水比例所占份額很小，用水結(jié)構(gòu)信息熵總體呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,這符合所在長江中游標(biāo)準(zhǔn)水平。 （2）根據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)用水系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性特征，應(yīng)用現(xiàn)代復(fù)合系統(tǒng)和協(xié)同學(xué)的原理和方法，構(gòu)造了水資源產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)同度模型。實(shí)證研究得出安徽省水資源產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)協(xié)同度不高，給出了縮小農(nóng)業(yè)用水比例，提倡節(jié)約用水，大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)等產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整建議。 （3）在安徽省用水結(jié)構(gòu)驅(qū)動力分析中，選取影響水資源利用結(jié)構(gòu)變化的14個驅(qū)動因子，采用主成分分析方法，篩選出三個主成分。歸納總結(jié)為人口增長、科技進(jìn)步、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r三類。篩選出了影響安徽省用水構(gòu)成變化較為重要的的驅(qū)動力因子是工業(yè)比重、節(jié)水灌溉面積、GDP城鎮(zhèn)消費(fèi)水平和有效灌溉面及人均綠化面積等。歸納總結(jié)為人口增長、科技進(jìn)步、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r三類。 （4）采用驅(qū)動力指數(shù)計算水資源利用結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜性綜合驅(qū)動力指數(shù)，確定各區(qū)域的影響程度，并運(yùn)用ArcGIS軟件將計算結(jié)果可視化。結(jié)果表明：合肥、亳州、宿州、巢湖、淮南等地用水結(jié)構(gòu)驅(qū)動因子較為復(fù)雜，，用水結(jié)構(gòu)變化趨勢較為良好。馬鞍山、宣城、蕪湖、銅陵用水結(jié)構(gòu)向合理方向演的速度變較慢。
[Abstract]:Water is the spring of life, production, ecological basis. The shortage of water resources leads to the lack of water allocation in various water sectors. Accurate and reasonable water structure prediction can provide better service and help for the development and utilization of water resources and the strictest regulation and control of water resources. It is of great significance for the regional water resources allocation and the coordinated development of social economy. The evolution of regional water structure is a complex process, and the influence of driving factors on water structure is very active. Taking Anhui Province as the research area, this paper studies and analyzes the evolution law and driving factor of regional water use structure by using various theory and method models. The main findings of the study are: 1) the development trend of water use structure in Anhui Province is analyzed by using the method of information entropy. The results show that the main characteristics of water use structure in Anhui Province are that agricultural water use plays a leading and key role, the proportion of industrial and domestic water consumption is very small, and the information entropy of water use structure is on the whole rising, which accords with the standard level of the middle reaches of Yangtze River. 2) according to the complex characteristics of industrial water use system and the principles and methods of modern composite system and Synergetics, a water resources industrial structure synergy degree model is constructed. The empirical study shows that the coordination degree of water resources industry system in Anhui Province is not high, and puts forward some suggestions for the adjustment of industrial structure, such as reducing the proportion of agricultural water use, advocating water saving and vigorously developing the tertiary industry. 3) in the driving force analysis of water use structure in Anhui Province, 14 driving factors affecting the change of water use structure were selected, and three principal components were selected by principal component analysis (PCA). Summarized for population growth, scientific and technological progress, economic development of three types. The most important driving factors influencing the change of water use composition in Anhui Province are industrial proportion, water saving irrigation area, GDP consumption level, effective irrigation area and per capita green area, etc. Summarized for population growth, scientific and technological progress, economic development of three types. The driving force index is used to calculate the structural complexity of water resources utilization, and the influence degree of each region is determined, and the calculation results are visualized by ArcGIS software. The results show that the driving factors of water use structure in Hefei, Bozhou, Suzhou, Chaohu and Huainan are more complex, and the trend of water use structure is better. Ma'anshan, Xuancheng, Wuhu, Tongling water structure to the reasonable direction of the speed becomes slower.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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