本文關(guān)鍵詞： 土石壩 漫壩 壩坡 綜合評估　出處：《南昌大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：安全評估是土石壩工程中一個有難度且富有挑戰(zhàn)性的重點研究領(lǐng)域。統(tǒng)計資料表明土石壩漫壩、滲流以及壩坡失穩(wěn)是土石壩安全評估的主要因素。為此本文分析研究三種主要土石壩風(fēng)險類型:漫壩風(fēng)險、滲透破壞和壩坡穩(wěn)定,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,將土石壩工程作為一個整體,綜合考慮各因素,對其進行安全綜合評估。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容有:(1)探討了土石壩服役風(fēng)險的成因,并利用故障樹分析法,發(fā)展了土石壩風(fēng)險成因辨識分析方法;基于故障樹分析成果,運用粗集理論,提出土石壩服役風(fēng)險成因數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法。(2)分析了大壩漫壩風(fēng)險定量評價方法,在求得漫壩概率的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合危險度轉(zhuǎn)換賦值函數(shù),將漫壩概率轉(zhuǎn)換為漫壩危險度,并綜合考慮大壩下游生命損失、經(jīng)濟損失及社會環(huán)境損失,計算大壩漫頂風(fēng)險損失度;最后構(gòu)建了漫壩風(fēng)險指數(shù)的定量評價等級,為漫壩風(fēng)險評價提供依據(jù)。(3)結(jié)合Geo-Studio分析軟件中Seep/w滲流分析模塊,對大壩進行滲流分析,分析大壩滲流的三種工況,即校核水位、正常蓄水位以及死水位工況,求得三種工況下的單寬滲流量、出逸比降及滲流逸出高程,并模擬得到不同工況下的浸潤線。(4)提出了運用云模型和組合定權(quán)的二維評價模型對土石壩壩坡穩(wěn)定性進行綜合評價。結(jié)合層次分析與熵值法,提出了能同時顧及主客觀權(quán)重的層次-熵耦合定權(quán)分析方法;依據(jù)云理論,利用云模型實現(xiàn)了定性定量不確定轉(zhuǎn)換,能夠反映評價過程中存在隨機性與模糊性等不確定性難題;以模糊熵E作為輔助參評量,結(jié)合等級評價共同構(gòu)建了土石壩壩坡穩(wěn)定性的二維評價模型。(5)在分析整個土石壩安全系統(tǒng)的基礎(chǔ)上,并從安全評估的角度,綜合考慮了工程質(zhì)量、運行管理、防洪安全、結(jié)構(gòu)安全、滲流安全、地震安全以及金屬結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)因素,構(gòu)建了土石壩安全綜合評價指標(biāo)體系;確立了指標(biāo)體系中定性與定量指標(biāo)的等級量化標(biāo)準;綜合運用層次分析法與模糊分析理論,提出了基于系統(tǒng)多層次的土石壩安全模糊綜合評價方法。
[Abstract]:Safety assessment is a difficult and challenging research field in earth-rock dam engineering. Seepage and dam slope instability are the main factors in the safety assessment of earth-rock dam. Therefore, this paper analyzes and studies three main risk types of earth-rock dam: dam overrun risk, seepage failure and dam slope stability, and on this basis. The earth-rock dam project as a whole is considered synthetically and the safety comprehensive evaluation is carried out. The main research content of this paper is: 1) the cause of the earth-rock dam service risk is discussed and the fault tree analysis method is used. The identification and analysis method of earth-rock dam risk is developed. Based on the results of fault tree analysis and using rough set theory, this paper puts forward the method of data mining for the cause of service risk of earth-rock dam, and analyzes the quantitative evaluation method of dam overrun risk, which is based on the calculation of dam overrun probability. Combined with the risk conversion assignment function, the probability of overtopping is converted to the risk of overtopping, and the risk loss degree of overtopping is calculated by taking into account the loss of life, economy and social environment in the downstream of the dam. Finally, the quantitative evaluation grade of risk index is constructed, which provides the basis for risk assessment of overfill dam. It is combined with Seep/w seepage analysis module in Geo-Studio analysis software. The seepage analysis of the dam is carried out, and the three working conditions of the dam seepage are analyzed, that is, check water level, normal storage water level and dead water level. The single wide seepage discharge, escape ratio drop and seepage escape height are obtained under three conditions. At the same time, the infiltration line under different working conditions is simulated. (4) A comprehensive evaluation of slope stability of earth-rockfill dam is proposed by using cloud model and two-dimensional evaluation model with combined weight, combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method. A hierarchy entropy coupled weight analysis method is proposed, which can take into account the subjective and objective weights at the same time. According to the cloud theory, the qualitative and quantitative uncertain transformation is realized by using cloud model, which can reflect the uncertainty problems such as randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process. Taking the fuzzy entropy E as the auxiliary evaluation quantity and combining the grade evaluation, the two-dimensional evaluation model of the slope stability of earth-rock dam is constructed. (5) based on the analysis of the whole safety system of the earth-rock dam, and from the point of view of safety assessment. The comprehensive evaluation index system of earth-rock dam safety is constructed considering the relevant factors of engineering quality, operation management, flood control safety, structure safety, seepage safety, earthquake safety and metal structure. The quantitative criteria of qualitative and quantitative indexes in the index system are established. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy analysis theory, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for earth-rock dam safety is proposed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV641;TV698.2

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