本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水資源安全 突變理論 突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià) 水資源管理　出處：《中國(guó)農(nóng)村水利水電》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷發(fā)展的大背景下,水資源安全的重要性日益突顯,水資源短缺已成為北京市經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展的主要制約因素之一。鑒于水資源系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性和突跳性,基于突變理論,建立水資源安全尖點(diǎn)突變模型,利用突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)模型變量進(jìn)行量化歸一計(jì)算,尋求表征北京市水資源安全狀態(tài)的變量(水資源與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)度)與其兩類控制變量(水量和水質(zhì))的關(guān)系,得出了保障北京市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的水量供需差值的安全下限,并對(duì)遠(yuǎn)景年份(2020、2030年)的水資源安全狀況進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,為北京市水資源可持續(xù)管理提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the continuous development of social economy, the importance of water resources security is becoming increasingly prominent. Water shortage has become one of the main restricting factors of economic and social development in Beijing. In view of the complexity and sudden jump of water resources system, a cusp catastrophe model of water resources safety is established based on catastrophe theory. The catastrophe evaluation method is used to calculate the model variables. To explore the relationship between the variables (coordination degree of water resources and social and economic development) and two kinds of control variables (water quantity and water quality) which represent the safety of water resources in Beijing. The safety lower limit of water supply and demand difference for social and economic development in Beijing is obtained, and the water resources security situation is evaluated in the prospective year of 2020, 2030. To provide the basis for sustainable management of water resources in Beijing.
【作者單位】： 華北電力大學(xué)可再生能源學(xué)院;
【基金】：“水資源高效開發(fā)利用”國(guó)家重點(diǎn)專項(xiàng)(2016YFC0402200) 長(zhǎng)江科學(xué)院開放研究基金資助項(xiàng)目(CKWV2015232/KY)
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4
【正文快照】： 0引言水資源是人類社會(huì)賴以生存和發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)資源。隨著人口增長(zhǎng)和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷發(fā)展,水資源短缺形勢(shì)越發(fā)嚴(yán)峻,水資源安全問題日益成為人類社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問題之一。廣義的水資源安全,是指水資源對(duì)國(guó)家的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有良好的支撐和保障能力[1]。具體到某一區(qū)域,則指可供水，

本文編號(hào)：1456463