青海省公路橋涵設(shè)計流量公式的回歸分析研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-26 08:31
【摘要】：青海全省境內(nèi)目前僅設(shè)置新舊水文站43個,且分布不均,具有較長統(tǒng)計資料的水文站數(shù)量更少,屬于水文資料稀缺地區(qū),這種狀況制約了省內(nèi)公路橋涵水文計算的發(fā)展水平。自1979年至2012年期間,省內(nèi)公路部門一直使用原交通部規(guī)劃設(shè)計院1979年科研成果,全省被分為6個水文分區(qū),但沒有相應(yīng)的區(qū)劃范圍圖。而用于設(shè)計流量公式回歸分析的原始數(shù)據(jù)多為1979年觀測統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),這些數(shù)據(jù)年代久遠,未考慮近年來的水情變化。在1991年,青海省公路科研勘測設(shè)計院使用“適線法”對流量公式進行了提高修正,但所使用的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)仍為1979年數(shù)據(jù),水文計算的安全性雖有所提高,但基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)年久而缺乏可信性,必將對計算結(jié)果、計算精度產(chǎn)生不利影響。2008年12月,由青海交通職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院承擔(dān)的廳級課題《青海省公路橋涵水文分區(qū)的修正及應(yīng)用研究》(合同編號:2008-09)正式立項。經(jīng)過3年多的研究,采用適合當(dāng)?shù)貙嶋H的、具有一定先進性的分區(qū)方法,依據(jù)最新的水文統(tǒng)計資料,將全省原有的6個分區(qū),重新劃分為7個產(chǎn)流區(qū)和1個季節(jié)性產(chǎn)流區(qū),得到了具體明確的分區(qū)圖和最新的設(shè)計流量計算公式,對本省公路橋涵建設(shè)起到了較好的指導(dǎo)作用。本次研究依托《青海省公路橋涵水文分區(qū)的修正及應(yīng)用研究》科研課題,系統(tǒng)地介紹了青海省地理及水文概況、青海省公路橋涵水文分區(qū)概況和設(shè)計流量公式的確定,重點是流量公式的回歸分析和誤差分析。研究表明:以實測水文站數(shù)據(jù)回歸后得到的流量公式,其計算精度高于原分區(qū)精度,表明現(xiàn)分區(qū)一致性優(yōu)于原分區(qū)。本次研究的主要內(nèi)容及成果有:(1)通過水文分區(qū)論證,將青海省原有的6個公路橋涵水文分區(qū),細劃為7個產(chǎn)流區(qū)和1個非產(chǎn)流區(qū),首次繪制了青海省公路橋涵水文分區(qū)圖及對應(yīng)的水系圖。(2)利用matlab軟件,對修正后的公路橋涵水文分區(qū)內(nèi)水文數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸分析,確定了流量計算公式中的參數(shù),修正了流量計算公式,可推算任意頻率的設(shè)計流量,填補了省內(nèi)空白。本次研究也存在一些不足之處。如祁連山區(qū)目前無任何水文站,導(dǎo)致無法對其進行分區(qū)細化;區(qū)域面積較大的柴達木區(qū)、玉樹區(qū)水文站數(shù)量偏少且水情復(fù)雜,觀測資料偏少,影響了分區(qū)細劃;省內(nèi)海西州部分地區(qū)頻頻發(fā)生水毀,本次所得的“柴達木區(qū)”經(jīng)驗公式,對“水毀”這一特殊水文現(xiàn)象仍不適用。
[Abstract]:At present, only 43 new and old hydrologic stations are set up in Qinghai Province, and the distribution is uneven, and the number of hydrologic stations with long statistical data is even smaller, which belongs to the area where hydrological data are scarce, which restricts the development level of hydrological calculation of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province. From 1979 to 2012, the highway departments in the province have been using the scientific research results of the original Planning and Design Institute of the Ministry of Communications in 1979. The province has been divided into six hydrological regions, but there is no corresponding zoning scope map. However, most of the original data used in regression analysis of design flow formula are 1979 observation statistics, which are old and do not take into account the changes of water regime in recent years. In 1991, Qinghai Provincial Highway Research and Survey and Design Institute used the "fitting method" to improve the flow formula, but the basic data used are still 1979 data. Although the safety of hydrological calculation has been improved, the basic data are long and lack of credibility, which will have a negative impact on the calculation results and calculation accuracy. December 2008, The department-level project "revision and Application Research of Qinghai Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrology Division" (contract No.: 2008 / 09), which is undertaken by Qinghai Institute of Communications Vocational and Technical College, has been formally established. After more than three years of research, using the zoning method which is suitable for the local reality and advanced to a certain extent, according to the latest hydrological statistical data, the original six divisions of the province are redivided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 seasonal runoff producing area, and the specific zoning map and the latest design flow calculation formula are obtained, which play a good guiding role in the construction of highway bridges and culverts in this province. Based on the scientific research topic of "revision and Application Research of Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrological Division in Qinghai Province", this paper systematically introduces the geography and hydrological situation of Qinghai Province, the general situation of Qinghai highway bridge and culvert hydrological zoning and the determination of design flow formula, with emphasis on the regression analysis and error analysis of the flow formula. The results show that the calculation accuracy of the flow formula obtained from the regression of the measured hydrologic station data is higher than that of the original partition, which shows that the consistency of the current partition is better than that of the original partition. The main contents and achievements of this study are as follows: (1) through the demonstration of hydrological zoning, the original six highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are divided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 non-runoff producing area, and the hydrological zoning maps and corresponding water system maps of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are drawn for the first time. (2) by using matlab software, the hydrological data in the modified highway bridges and culverts are analyzed by regression analysis. The parameters in the flow calculation formula are determined, the flow calculation formula is modified, the design flow at any frequency can be calculated, and the blank in the province can be filled. There are also some shortcomings in this study. For example, there are no hydrologic stations in Qilian Mountains at present, which makes it impossible to divide and refine them. In the Chaidamu area with a large area, the number of hydrologic stations in Yushu District is small and the observation data are too small, which affects the zoning. The empirical formula of "Chaidamu area" is still not applicable to the special hydrological phenomenon of "water destruction" in some areas of Haixi Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U442.5
本文編號：2506060
[Abstract]:At present, only 43 new and old hydrologic stations are set up in Qinghai Province, and the distribution is uneven, and the number of hydrologic stations with long statistical data is even smaller, which belongs to the area where hydrological data are scarce, which restricts the development level of hydrological calculation of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province. From 1979 to 2012, the highway departments in the province have been using the scientific research results of the original Planning and Design Institute of the Ministry of Communications in 1979. The province has been divided into six hydrological regions, but there is no corresponding zoning scope map. However, most of the original data used in regression analysis of design flow formula are 1979 observation statistics, which are old and do not take into account the changes of water regime in recent years. In 1991, Qinghai Provincial Highway Research and Survey and Design Institute used the "fitting method" to improve the flow formula, but the basic data used are still 1979 data. Although the safety of hydrological calculation has been improved, the basic data are long and lack of credibility, which will have a negative impact on the calculation results and calculation accuracy. December 2008, The department-level project "revision and Application Research of Qinghai Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrology Division" (contract No.: 2008 / 09), which is undertaken by Qinghai Institute of Communications Vocational and Technical College, has been formally established. After more than three years of research, using the zoning method which is suitable for the local reality and advanced to a certain extent, according to the latest hydrological statistical data, the original six divisions of the province are redivided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 seasonal runoff producing area, and the specific zoning map and the latest design flow calculation formula are obtained, which play a good guiding role in the construction of highway bridges and culverts in this province. Based on the scientific research topic of "revision and Application Research of Highway Bridge and culvert Hydrological Division in Qinghai Province", this paper systematically introduces the geography and hydrological situation of Qinghai Province, the general situation of Qinghai highway bridge and culvert hydrological zoning and the determination of design flow formula, with emphasis on the regression analysis and error analysis of the flow formula. The results show that the calculation accuracy of the flow formula obtained from the regression of the measured hydrologic station data is higher than that of the original partition, which shows that the consistency of the current partition is better than that of the original partition. The main contents and achievements of this study are as follows: (1) through the demonstration of hydrological zoning, the original six highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are divided into 7 runoff producing areas and 1 non-runoff producing area, and the hydrological zoning maps and corresponding water system maps of highway bridges and culverts in Qinghai Province are drawn for the first time. (2) by using matlab software, the hydrological data in the modified highway bridges and culverts are analyzed by regression analysis. The parameters in the flow calculation formula are determined, the flow calculation formula is modified, the design flow at any frequency can be calculated, and the blank in the province can be filled. There are also some shortcomings in this study. For example, there are no hydrologic stations in Qilian Mountains at present, which makes it impossible to divide and refine them. In the Chaidamu area with a large area, the number of hydrologic stations in Yushu District is small and the observation data are too small, which affects the zoning. The empirical formula of "Chaidamu area" is still not applicable to the special hydrological phenomenon of "water destruction" in some areas of Haixi Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U442.5
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