【摘要】：為了加深對(duì)城郊公路交通事故發(fā)生與相關(guān)因素之間關(guān)系的認(rèn)識(shí),針對(duì)上海市8條城郊公路的161個(gè)路段,利用統(tǒng)計(jì)模型分析公路宏觀特征、路段幾何設(shè)計(jì)、接入口特征、交通特征、區(qū)位特點(diǎn)和交通安全的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:由于選自同一公路的不同路段遵循相同的設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),具有相似交通特點(diǎn)而存在空間相關(guān)現(xiàn)象,違背了傳統(tǒng)模型樣本相互獨(dú)立的假設(shè),建立分層負(fù)二項(xiàng)模型進(jìn)行分析可以獲得準(zhǔn)確結(jié)果;位于近郊的路段相對(duì)于遠(yuǎn)郊更易發(fā)生交通事故;信控交叉口密度對(duì)簡(jiǎn)易事故、一般事故和事故總數(shù)均有顯著正相關(guān)影響,間距大且均衡對(duì)交通安全是最有利的;接入口密度對(duì)3類事故有顯著正相關(guān)影響;曲線路段容易導(dǎo)致一般事故的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:In order to deepen the understanding of the relationship between traffic accidents and related factors in suburban highway, the statistical model is used to analyze the macroscopic characteristics, geometric design and entrance characteristics of the highway, aiming at 161 sections of 8 suburban highways in Shanghai. The relationship between traffic characteristics, location characteristics and traffic safety. The results show that because different sections selected from the same highway follow the same design standards and have similar traffic characteristics, there exists a spatial correlation phenomenon, which violates the assumption that the traditional model samples are independent of each other. Accurate results can be obtained by establishing a stratified negative binomial model. The density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents, and the distance between them is the most favorable to traffic safety. The traffic accidents in the near suburbs are more likely to occur than those in the outer suburbs, and the density of signal-controlled intersections has a significant positive correlation with the total number of accidents. The density of entrance has a significant positive correlation with the three types of accidents, and the curve section can easily lead to the occurrence of general accidents.
【作者單位】： 同濟(jì)大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)院;湖南大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51008230) 教育部新世紀(jì)優(yōu)秀人才支持計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(NCET-11-0387) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(160021976)
【分類號(hào)】：U491

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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