發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-23 18:27

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的高速發(fā)展,各地區(qū)交通量迅速增長,對(duì)于道路建設(shè)的需求日趨強(qiáng)烈。但由于新建公路投資大、耗時(shí)長、占用土地資源多等原因,較多地區(qū)更傾向于對(duì)原有公路進(jìn)行改擴(kuò)建。交通量預(yù)測結(jié)果是決定公路技術(shù)等級(jí)、建設(shè)規(guī)模以及進(jìn)行國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)的基本依據(jù)。在公路項(xiàng)目后評(píng)價(jià)報(bào)告的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),很多高速公路以及一、二級(jí)改擴(kuò)建公路在工程可行性研究階段所預(yù)測的交通量與實(shí)際運(yùn)營交通量存在較大誤差。本文旨在結(jié)合黑龍江省省道建興至碾子山二級(jí)公路明林段改擴(kuò)建工程交通量實(shí)際預(yù)測,提取影響交通量預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確度的敏感性因素,分析其對(duì)交通量預(yù)測的影響程度并提出相應(yīng)建議及對(duì)策。 本文首先介紹了改擴(kuò)建公路交通量預(yù)測應(yīng)用最為廣泛的兩個(gè)方法：“四階段”法和基于運(yùn)輸通道法,對(duì)兩種預(yù)測方法的理論和預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行研究；并對(duì)兩種方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)及適用范圍作出比較分析。 其次,結(jié)合黑龍江省省道建興至碾子山二級(jí)公路明林段,基于“四階段”法,利用TransCAD軟件對(duì)改擴(kuò)建公路進(jìn)行交通量預(yù)測。重點(diǎn)包括未來社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢預(yù)測、交通小區(qū)的劃分及路網(wǎng)的構(gòu)建、基年OD矩陣反推、未來出行產(chǎn)生、吸引總量預(yù)測、未來出行分布預(yù)測和交通量分配。 再次,基于“四階段”法,對(duì)四個(gè)階段中影響交通量預(yù)測的因素逐一進(jìn)行分析。并運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法提取出影響交通量預(yù)測的敏感性因素。 最后,以黑龍江省省道建興至碾子山二級(jí)公路明林段改擴(kuò)建工程交通量預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),將遠(yuǎn)景年擬改擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目交通分配量作為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),基于“四階段”法和TransCAD軟件相關(guān)模型,利用單因素敏感性分析法,對(duì)敏感性因素進(jìn)行敏感性分析,研究其對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的影響程度。并結(jié)合研究分析結(jié)果及實(shí)際預(yù)測中的問題,提出提高交通量預(yù)測結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確性的相關(guān)建議及對(duì)策,希望為今后的交通量預(yù)測工作提供參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and transportation in China, the traffic volume in various regions is increasing rapidly, and the demand for road construction is becoming more and more intense. However, due to the large investment of new highway, the time consuming and the occupation of land resources, more regions tend to rebuild and expand the existing highway. The result of traffic volume prediction is the basic basis for determining highway technical grade, construction scale and national economic evaluation. In the study of the post-evaluation report of highway project, it is found that there is a big error between the traffic volume predicted in the stage of feasibility study of engineering and the actual traffic volume of many freeways and the first and second grade reconstruction and extension highway. The purpose of this paper is to extract the sensitive factors that affect the accuracy of traffic volume prediction based on the actual forecast of traffic volume in the reconstruction and expansion project of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province. The influence degree of traffic volume prediction is analyzed, and the corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forward. This paper first introduces two most widely used methods of highway traffic volume prediction: "four-stage" method and "transportation passage method", and studies the theory and prediction model of the two forecasting methods. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and their scope of application are compared and analyzed. Secondly, combining the Minglin section of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province, based on the "four stages" method, the traffic volume of the reconstructed and expanded highway is forecasted by using TransCAD software. It mainly includes the forecast of the future social and economic development trend, the division of the traffic district and the construction of the road network, the base year OD matrix backstepping, the future trip generation, the total attraction forecast, the future travel distribution forecast and the traffic volume distribution. Thirdly, based on the four-stage method, the factors affecting traffic volume prediction are analyzed one by one. The sensitivity factors of traffic volume prediction are extracted by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, based on the forecast data of traffic volume of the reconstruction and extension project of the second class highway of Jianxing to Yanchishan in Heilongjiang Province, the traffic allocation of the project is regarded as the evaluation index. Based on the "four-stage" method and the TransCAD software model, the sensitivity analysis of the sensitivity factors was carried out by using the single factor sensitivity analysis method, and the degree of its influence on the evaluation index was studied. Combined with the research and analysis results and the problems in the actual forecast, the paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures to improve the accuracy of the traffic volume prediction results, hoping to provide a reference for the future traffic volume prediction work.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.14

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本文編號(hào)：2390083