中國城市車輛密度對勞動生產(chǎn)率影響的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-21 21:43
【摘要】：空間集聚是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟活動的一個特征。城市車輛密度隨著經(jīng)濟活動的集聚而增加。在達到路網(wǎng)設(shè)計能力以前，交通密度的增長會降低道路建設(shè)平均成本、提高經(jīng)濟活動和人們交往的頻率、有利于提高要素生產(chǎn)率和溢出效應(yīng)，因此有利于提高城市集聚經(jīng)濟�？墒�，一旦城市車輛密度超出城市道路設(shè)計通過能力，增長的車輛非但自身難以達到正常速度，而且會降低其他車輛和出行者的速度，產(chǎn)生集聚非經(jīng)濟。從勞動生產(chǎn)率視角研究最佳車輛密度既有助于識別城市效率的影響途徑，也可為城市交通規(guī)劃和建設(shè)提供重要依據(jù)。 本文根據(jù)交通擁堵的外部性原理構(gòu)建了交通成本函數(shù)，分別分析了城市廠商和居民的最優(yōu)化問題，進而設(shè)置了城市經(jīng)濟一般均衡計量模型。本文利用我國268個地級及以上城市2003-2011年面板數(shù)據(jù)估計該模型，獲得一系列統(tǒng)計上顯著的分析結(jié)果。（1）中國城市的車輛密度與勞動生產(chǎn)率之間呈倒U型關(guān)系，大城市平均最佳車輛密度（2028輛/km2）低于小城市最佳密度（2849輛/km2），估計結(jié)果既表現(xiàn)出車輛行駛距離和時間隨城市規(guī)模的擴大而增加、大城市車輛平均所需路面大于小城市的一般規(guī)律，也反映了大城市道路同時服務(wù)于鄰近地區(qū)入城車輛以及政府用車和軍用車輛在大城市比較集中的現(xiàn)象。（2）我國城市交通擁堵現(xiàn)象日趨嚴重，從2003年10個城市的交通擁堵發(fā)展到2011年130個城市出現(xiàn)交通擁堵，同期這些城市擁堵造成的生產(chǎn)率損失從260億元上升到6600億元，其中6385億元源自77個出現(xiàn)擁堵的百萬人口以上的大城市。（3）城市道路橋梁建設(shè)有效地提高了道路通行能力和最佳車輛密度，如果道路資本存量從均值上升10%，城市道路通行能力增長17%，其中大城市平均最佳車輛密度從2028輛/平方公里增長到2378輛/平方公里，小城市的最佳密度從2849輛/平方公里增長到3339輛/平方公里。城市道路橋梁投資明顯降低了擁堵?lián)p失，如果在生產(chǎn)率高且擁堵嚴重的大城市增加路橋投資，其收益遠高于成本，，相反，由于小城市生產(chǎn)率較低且擁堵程度較低，路橋投資的收益不足以彌補小城市路橋投資的成本。
[Abstract]:Spatial agglomeration is a characteristic of modern economic activities. The density of urban vehicles increases with the agglomeration of economic activities. Before reaching the capacity of road network design, the increase of traffic density will reduce the average cost of road construction, increase the frequency of economic activities and people's communication, and help to increase factor productivity and spillover effect, so it will help to improve the urban agglomeration economy. However, once the density of urban vehicles exceeds the capacity of urban road design, the growth of vehicles will not only be difficult to achieve normal speed, but also will reduce the speed of other vehicles and travelers, resulting in the accumulation of non-economic. The study of optimal vehicle density from the perspective of labor productivity can not only help to identify the influence ways of urban efficiency, but also provide an important basis for urban traffic planning and construction. Based on the externality principle of traffic congestion, this paper constructs the traffic cost function, analyzes the optimization problems of the urban manufacturers and residents, and sets up the general equilibrium econometric model of urban economy. In this paper, the panel data of 268 cities in China from 2003 to 2011 are used to estimate the model, and a series of statistically significant results are obtained. (1) the relationship between vehicle density and labor productivity in Chinese cities is inversely U-shaped. The average optimum vehicle density (2028 vehicles / km2) in large cities is lower than that in small cities (2849 vehicles / km2). The general law that the average road needs of large cities are greater than that of small cities, It also reflects the phenomenon that the roads in big cities serve the vehicles entering the cities in the neighboring areas at the same time, as well as the concentration of government vehicles and military vehicles in large cities. (2) the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion in China is becoming more and more serious. From traffic jams in 10 cities in 2003 to 130 in 2011, the productivity loss from congestion in these cities rose from 26 billion yuan to 660 billion yuan in the same period. Of this amount, 638.5 billion yuan originates from 77 large cities with a congested population of more than one million people. (3) Urban road and bridge construction effectively improves road capacity and optimal vehicle density, if the stock of road capital increases by 10 percent from the average. The average optimum vehicle density in large cities has increased from 2028 to 2378 vehicles per square kilometer, and the optimum density in small cities has increased from 2849 to 3339 vehicles per square kilometer. Investment in urban roads and bridges significantly reduces congestion losses. If you increase investment in roads and bridges in large cities with high productivity and high congestion, the benefits are much higher than the costs, whereas smaller cities are less productive and congested. The return on road and bridge investment is not enough to cover the cost of road and bridge investment in small cities.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F572;F249.2
本文編號：2389507
[Abstract]:Spatial agglomeration is a characteristic of modern economic activities. The density of urban vehicles increases with the agglomeration of economic activities. Before reaching the capacity of road network design, the increase of traffic density will reduce the average cost of road construction, increase the frequency of economic activities and people's communication, and help to increase factor productivity and spillover effect, so it will help to improve the urban agglomeration economy. However, once the density of urban vehicles exceeds the capacity of urban road design, the growth of vehicles will not only be difficult to achieve normal speed, but also will reduce the speed of other vehicles and travelers, resulting in the accumulation of non-economic. The study of optimal vehicle density from the perspective of labor productivity can not only help to identify the influence ways of urban efficiency, but also provide an important basis for urban traffic planning and construction. Based on the externality principle of traffic congestion, this paper constructs the traffic cost function, analyzes the optimization problems of the urban manufacturers and residents, and sets up the general equilibrium econometric model of urban economy. In this paper, the panel data of 268 cities in China from 2003 to 2011 are used to estimate the model, and a series of statistically significant results are obtained. (1) the relationship between vehicle density and labor productivity in Chinese cities is inversely U-shaped. The average optimum vehicle density (2028 vehicles / km2) in large cities is lower than that in small cities (2849 vehicles / km2). The general law that the average road needs of large cities are greater than that of small cities, It also reflects the phenomenon that the roads in big cities serve the vehicles entering the cities in the neighboring areas at the same time, as well as the concentration of government vehicles and military vehicles in large cities. (2) the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion in China is becoming more and more serious. From traffic jams in 10 cities in 2003 to 130 in 2011, the productivity loss from congestion in these cities rose from 26 billion yuan to 660 billion yuan in the same period. Of this amount, 638.5 billion yuan originates from 77 large cities with a congested population of more than one million people. (3) Urban road and bridge construction effectively improves road capacity and optimal vehicle density, if the stock of road capital increases by 10 percent from the average. The average optimum vehicle density in large cities has increased from 2028 to 2378 vehicles per square kilometer, and the optimum density in small cities has increased from 2849 to 3339 vehicles per square kilometer. Investment in urban roads and bridges significantly reduces congestion losses. If you increase investment in roads and bridges in large cities with high productivity and high congestion, the benefits are much higher than the costs, whereas smaller cities are less productive and congested. The return on road and bridge investment is not enough to cover the cost of road and bridge investment in small cities.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F572;F249.2
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