【摘要】：隨著城市化進(jìn)程的不斷加快和私家車保有量的不斷增長,交通需求的急劇膨脹導(dǎo)致交通壓力大增,交通擁堵、停車?yán)щy和環(huán)境污染等問題日益突出,優(yōu)先發(fā)展公共交通成為解決這些問題的必由之路。在發(fā)展“公交都市”的大背景下,許多城市制定了公交規(guī)劃,大力發(fā)展公共交通；然而,受到各種因素的影響,許多城市在目標(biāo)年公交的實際發(fā)展水平遠(yuǎn)達(dá)不到公交規(guī)劃方案中制定的發(fā)展目標(biāo)。為確定城市公交合理的發(fā)展目標(biāo),給各城市的公交規(guī)劃提供依據(jù),本文依托安徽省交通運(yùn)輸廳科技計劃項目《城市公共交通評價指標(biāo)體系研究》,對城市公交的合理發(fā)展水平及其評價展開研究。 首先,根據(jù)目的性、科學(xué)性、系統(tǒng)性和可操作性等原則,采用專家會議法,從運(yùn)營能力、服務(wù)能力和發(fā)展能力三個方面的備選指標(biāo)中選取評價指標(biāo),建立城市公交合理發(fā)展水平評價指標(biāo)體系,并對指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了量化分析。其次,在分析城市公共交通現(xiàn)狀和傳統(tǒng)的“四階段”交通需求預(yù)測模型的基礎(chǔ)上,對城市公交發(fā)展的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析；分別采用趨勢擬合法和殘差修正的GM(1,1)模型,對城市公交發(fā)展水平的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測,探討城市公共交通發(fā)展水平的預(yù)測方法。再次,制定了評價流程,采用結(jié)構(gòu)熵權(quán)法計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,引入多屬性決策理論,運(yùn)用基于改進(jìn)TOPSIS法的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度評價模型對城市公交合理發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行縱向和橫向的評價。其中,縱向的評價是基于預(yù)測的結(jié)果,結(jié)合城市公交的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和規(guī)劃目標(biāo),對城市公交的合理發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行綜合評價。橫向的評價是針對同類別的不同城市,考慮城市之間的差異性,對城市公交發(fā)展與城市發(fā)展間的協(xié)調(diào)性進(jìn)行評價。最后,以安徽省部分城市為例,借助MATLAB和EXCEL等工具,進(jìn)行模型的驗證和實例應(yīng)用分析。結(jié)果表明,研究的成果實用性較強(qiáng),對城市公共交通合理發(fā)展目標(biāo)的確定具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing number of private cars, the rapid expansion of traffic demand leads to traffic pressure, traffic congestion, parking difficulties and environmental pollution. Giving priority to the development of public transport is the only way to solve these problems. Under the background of the development of "public transportation city", many cities have formulated public transport plans and vigorously developed public transport. However, under the influence of various factors, the actual development level of public transport in many cities in the target year is far from the development goal set in the public transport planning plan. In order to determine the reasonable development goal of urban public transport and provide the basis for the public transport planning of each city, this paper relies on the scientific and technological plan project of Anhui Provincial Transportation Department < Research on the Evaluation Index system of Urban Public Transport]. The reasonable development level of urban public transport and its evaluation are studied. First of all, according to the principles of purpose, science, systematicness and maneuverability, the expert meeting method is used to select the evaluation index from three aspects of operation ability, service ability and development ability. The evaluation index system of reasonable development level of urban public transport is established, and the quantitative analysis of the index is carried out. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of urban public transport and the traditional "four-stage" traffic demand forecasting model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban public transport development. The trend fitting method and the residual modified GM (1 / 1) model are used to predict the development level of urban public transport and the prediction method of the development level of urban public transportation is discussed. Thirdly, the evaluation flow is established, the index weight is calculated by using the structure entropy weight method, the multi-attribute decision theory is introduced, and the grey relational degree evaluation model based on the improved TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the reasonable development level of urban public transport vertically and horizontally. Among them, the longitudinal evaluation is based on the prediction results, combined with the development status of urban public transport and planning objectives, the reasonable level of urban public transport development is comprehensively evaluated. The horizontal evaluation is to evaluate the coordination between urban public transport development and urban development considering the differences between different cities. Finally, taking some cities in Anhui Province as an example, the model verification and application analysis are carried out by means of MATLAB and EXCEL. The results show that the results of the study are practical and have a certain guiding significance for the determination of the reasonable development goal of urban public transport.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12

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本文編號：2366903