城市公共交通合理發(fā)展水平研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-07 08:24
【摘要】：隨著城市化進程的不斷加快和私家車保有量的不斷增長,交通需求的急劇膨脹導致交通壓力大增,交通擁堵、停車困難和環(huán)境污染等問題日益突出,優(yōu)先發(fā)展公共交通成為解決這些問題的必由之路。在發(fā)展“公交都市”的大背景下,許多城市制定了公交規(guī)劃,大力發(fā)展公共交通；然而,受到各種因素的影響,許多城市在目標年公交的實際發(fā)展水平遠達不到公交規(guī)劃方案中制定的發(fā)展目標。為確定城市公交合理的發(fā)展目標,給各城市的公交規(guī)劃提供依據(jù),本文依托安徽省交通運輸廳科技計劃項目《城市公共交通評價指標體系研究》,對城市公交的合理發(fā)展水平及其評價展開研究。 首先,根據(jù)目的性、科學性、系統(tǒng)性和可操作性等原則,采用專家會議法,從運營能力、服務能力和發(fā)展能力三個方面的備選指標中選取評價指標,建立城市公交合理發(fā)展水平評價指標體系,并對指標進行了量化分析。其次,在分析城市公共交通現(xiàn)狀和傳統(tǒng)的“四階段”交通需求預測模型的基礎上,對城市公交發(fā)展的影響因素進行了分析；分別采用趨勢擬合法和殘差修正的GM(1,1)模型,對城市公交發(fā)展水平的指標進行預測,探討城市公共交通發(fā)展水平的預測方法。再次,制定了評價流程,采用結構熵權法計算指標權重,引入多屬性決策理論,運用基于改進TOPSIS法的灰色關聯(lián)度評價模型對城市公交合理發(fā)展水平進行縱向和橫向的評價。其中,縱向的評價是基于預測的結果,結合城市公交的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和規(guī)劃目標,對城市公交的合理發(fā)展水平進行綜合評價。橫向的評價是針對同類別的不同城市,考慮城市之間的差異性,對城市公交發(fā)展與城市發(fā)展間的協(xié)調(diào)性進行評價。最后,以安徽省部分城市為例,借助MATLAB和EXCEL等工具,進行模型的驗證和實例應用分析。結果表明,研究的成果實用性較強,對城市公共交通合理發(fā)展目標的確定具有一定的指導意義。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing number of private cars, the rapid expansion of traffic demand leads to traffic pressure, traffic congestion, parking difficulties and environmental pollution. Giving priority to the development of public transport is the only way to solve these problems. Under the background of the development of "public transportation city", many cities have formulated public transport plans and vigorously developed public transport. However, under the influence of various factors, the actual development level of public transport in many cities in the target year is far from the development goal set in the public transport planning plan. In order to determine the reasonable development goal of urban public transport and provide the basis for the public transport planning of each city, this paper relies on the scientific and technological plan project of Anhui Provincial Transportation Department < Research on the Evaluation Index system of Urban Public Transport]. The reasonable development level of urban public transport and its evaluation are studied. First of all, according to the principles of purpose, science, systematicness and maneuverability, the expert meeting method is used to select the evaluation index from three aspects of operation ability, service ability and development ability. The evaluation index system of reasonable development level of urban public transport is established, and the quantitative analysis of the index is carried out. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of urban public transport and the traditional "four-stage" traffic demand forecasting model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban public transport development. The trend fitting method and the residual modified GM (1 / 1) model are used to predict the development level of urban public transport and the prediction method of the development level of urban public transportation is discussed. Thirdly, the evaluation flow is established, the index weight is calculated by using the structure entropy weight method, the multi-attribute decision theory is introduced, and the grey relational degree evaluation model based on the improved TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the reasonable development level of urban public transport vertically and horizontally. Among them, the longitudinal evaluation is based on the prediction results, combined with the development status of urban public transport and planning objectives, the reasonable level of urban public transport development is comprehensively evaluated. The horizontal evaluation is to evaluate the coordination between urban public transport development and urban development considering the differences between different cities. Finally, taking some cities in Anhui Province as an example, the model verification and application analysis are carried out by means of MATLAB and EXCEL. The results show that the results of the study are practical and have a certain guiding significance for the determination of the reasonable development goal of urban public transport.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing number of private cars, the rapid expansion of traffic demand leads to traffic pressure, traffic congestion, parking difficulties and environmental pollution. Giving priority to the development of public transport is the only way to solve these problems. Under the background of the development of "public transportation city", many cities have formulated public transport plans and vigorously developed public transport. However, under the influence of various factors, the actual development level of public transport in many cities in the target year is far from the development goal set in the public transport planning plan. In order to determine the reasonable development goal of urban public transport and provide the basis for the public transport planning of each city, this paper relies on the scientific and technological plan project of Anhui Provincial Transportation Department < Research on the Evaluation Index system of Urban Public Transport]. The reasonable development level of urban public transport and its evaluation are studied. First of all, according to the principles of purpose, science, systematicness and maneuverability, the expert meeting method is used to select the evaluation index from three aspects of operation ability, service ability and development ability. The evaluation index system of reasonable development level of urban public transport is established, and the quantitative analysis of the index is carried out. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of urban public transport and the traditional "four-stage" traffic demand forecasting model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban public transport development. The trend fitting method and the residual modified GM (1 / 1) model are used to predict the development level of urban public transport and the prediction method of the development level of urban public transportation is discussed. Thirdly, the evaluation flow is established, the index weight is calculated by using the structure entropy weight method, the multi-attribute decision theory is introduced, and the grey relational degree evaluation model based on the improved TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the reasonable development level of urban public transport vertically and horizontally. Among them, the longitudinal evaluation is based on the prediction results, combined with the development status of urban public transport and planning objectives, the reasonable level of urban public transport development is comprehensively evaluated. The horizontal evaluation is to evaluate the coordination between urban public transport development and urban development considering the differences between different cities. Finally, taking some cities in Anhui Province as an example, the model verification and application analysis are carried out by means of MATLAB and EXCEL. The results show that the results of the study are practical and have a certain guiding significance for the determination of the reasonable development goal of urban public transport.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 陳啟新;城市公共交通現(xiàn)狀分析與評價[J];城市公共交通;2001年03期
2 陸建,胡剛;常規(guī)公交線網(wǎng)布局層次規(guī)劃法及其應用[J];城市交通;2004年04期
3 陳國宏,陳衍泰,李美娟;組合評價系統(tǒng)綜合研究[J];復旦學報(自然科學版);2003年05期
4 遲國泰;蘆丹;孫秀峰;;基于城市差異系數(shù)的城市商業(yè)銀行效率評價模型及實證研究[J];管理工程學報;2007年03期
5 王小君;王新民;白永平;;基于主成分分析的資源型城市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展綜合評價研究——以嘉峪關市為例[J];甘肅聯(lián)合大學學報(自然科學版);2007年01期
6 張玉璽;李振;王建群;;城市公共交通需求預測研究[J];佛山科學技術學院學報(自然科學版);2013年03期
7 李煜華,孫凱,孫彩;基于灰色聚類方法的城市公交發(fā)展水平綜合評價[J];哈爾濱理工大學學報;2004年06期
8 呂香亭;;綜合評價指標篩選方法綜述[J];合作經(jīng)濟與科技;2009年06期
9 陳衍泰,陳國宏,李美娟;綜合評價方法分類及研究進展[J];管理科學學報;2004年02期
10 陳新,楊雪,楊s，
本文編號：2366903
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/jiaotonggongchenglunwen/2366903.html
教材專著
