發(fā)布時間：2018-11-13 14:28

【摘要】：行程時間可靠性越來越成為城市交通規(guī)劃與管理的重要評價指標(biāo)，出行者如何評價行程時間可靠性的價值，行程時間可靠性又對出行行為產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響，這些問題近年來逐漸受到國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的重視。研究出行者測度行程時間可靠性價值的規(guī)律有助于定量分析道路交通系統(tǒng)可靠性對出行決策的影響，為科學(xué)評價交通項目效益和制定有針對性的交通需求管理策略提供支持。本文系統(tǒng)總結(jié)測度行程時間可靠性價值的國內(nèi)外研究成果，全面剖析多種可靠性價值測度模型的應(yīng)用和不同調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)獲取方式的利弊，為合理測度行程時間可靠性價值提供完整的解決方案。同時設(shè)計基于出行者預(yù)置信息的SP問卷調(diào)查程序，以天津市區(qū)早高峰時段部分通勤者為研究對象，，采用直接和間接兩種測度方法，測度公交方式通勤者行程時間可靠性價值，應(yīng)用混合Logit模型標(biāo)定參數(shù)。結(jié)果不僅驗(yàn)證了公交通勤者行程時間可靠性價值的存在性，同時發(fā)現(xiàn)了通勤者測度可靠性價值不僅考慮行程時間波動幅度本身，而是更加注重時間波動可能引起的遲到延誤成本或早到機(jī)會成本。研究給出了調(diào)查樣本行程時間可靠性支付意愿的分布情況及不同社會經(jīng)濟(jì)屬性通勤者的偏好特征，為估算交通建設(shè)項目中行程時間可靠性改善帶來的效益和制定交通需求管理政策提供參考。
[Abstract]:Travel time reliability has become an important evaluation index of urban traffic planning and management. How to evaluate the value of travel time reliability and how does travel time reliability affect travel behavior? These problems have been paid more and more attention by scholars at home and abroad in recent years. The study of travelers' reliability value of travel time is helpful to the quantitative analysis of the impact of road traffic system reliability on travel decision-making and provides support for the scientific evaluation of traffic project benefits and the formulation of targeted traffic demand management strategies. This paper systematically summarizes the domestic and foreign research results of measuring the reliability value of travel time, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various reliability value measurement models and the advantages and disadvantages of different survey data acquisition methods. It provides a complete solution for measuring the reliability value of travel time reasonably. At the same time, the SP questionnaire program based on the preset information is designed to measure the reliability value of commuter's travel time by using direct and indirect measurement methods, taking some commuters in the early rush hours of Tianjin city as the research object. The mixed Logit model is used to calibrate the parameters. The results not only verify the existence of travel time reliability value of bus commuters, but also find that the reliability value of commuter measurement not only takes into account the range of travel time fluctuation. Instead, pay more attention to the cost of late delay or early arrival opportunity due to time fluctuations. The distribution of willingness to pay for reliability of travel time and preference characteristics of commuters with different socioeconomic attributes were given. It provides a reference for estimating the benefit of improving the reliability of travel time in traffic construction projects and formulating traffic demand management policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 高愛霞;陳艷艷;任福田;;基于蒙特卡羅模擬方法的快速路運(yùn)行時間可靠度研究[J];公路交通科技;2006年11期

2 趙勝川;王喜文;姚榮涵;張羽祥;;基于Mixed Logit模型的私家車通勤出行時間價值[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(工學(xué)版);2010年02期

3 姜乙甲;于雷;陳琨;余柳;滕懷龍;;基于可靠性的奧運(yùn)會開幕式交通管理與控制措施評價[J];交通與計算機(jī);2007年04期

4 余艷春;邵春福;郭鈺愫;熊志華;;基于實(shí)時數(shù)據(jù)的路網(wǎng)行程時間可靠度模型研究[J];現(xiàn)代交通技術(shù);2006年02期

5 許良;高自友;;基于出行時間可靠性的城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)計[J];系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報;2008年02期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 段鵬;離散選擇模型理論與應(yīng)用研究[D];南開大學(xué);2010年

2 趙貝;居民出行方式選擇與公交優(yōu)先政策協(xié)同研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

3 趙丹;綜合交通信息下通勤出行鏈重構(gòu)機(jī)理研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2013年

本文編號：2329434