河北省道路交通事故灰色預測模型的構建與應用
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-08 12:56
【摘要】：道路交通事故預測與預防是減少交通事故，提高道理交通安全水平的主要手段之一，逐漸發(fā)展成為道路交通安全研究的熱點問題。道路交通系統(tǒng)是一個動態(tài)的不確定的系統(tǒng)，交通事故的發(fā)生具有隨機性。針對道路交通系統(tǒng)“部分信息已知，部分信息未知”的特性，采用灰色系統(tǒng)理論，著重研究“小樣本、貧信息”的不確定問題及“外延明確、內涵不明確”的隨機對象，實現(xiàn)“少數(shù)據(jù)建�！�。 本文著重研究道路交通事故宏觀影響因素對死亡人數(shù)的影響，利用灰色關聯(lián)分析方法確定主要影響因子，建立預測指標體系。通過構建基于灰色關聯(lián)分析的多因子灰色預測模型MGM(1, N)，利用灰色生成算子的作用弱化隨機性，分析道路交通系統(tǒng)內在聯(lián)系，挖掘潛在規(guī)律，經(jīng)過灰色灰色差分方程與灰色微分方程之間的互換實現(xiàn)了利用離散數(shù)據(jù)序列建立連續(xù)動態(tài)的微分方程，，對河北省道路交通事故進行預測。利用河北省2000年至2011年的道路交通事故統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進行死亡人數(shù)的預測與精度檢驗。實證結果表明，基于灰色關聯(lián)分析的多因子灰色預測模型是可行、有效的。相較于GM(1,1)預測模型，此方法能夠更加合理、科學、準確地預測交通事故的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，可以為交通相關部門提供管理與決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The prediction and prevention of road traffic accidents is one of the main means to reduce traffic accidents and improve the level of traffic safety. It has gradually developed into a hot topic in the research of road traffic safety. Road traffic system is a dynamic and uncertain system, and the occurrence of traffic accidents is random. In view of the characteristic of "part information is known, part information is unknown" of road traffic system, the grey system theory is adopted to study the uncertain problem of "small sample, poor information" and the random object with "explicit extension and unclear connotation". Implement "less data modeling". This paper focuses on the study of the influence of macro factors of road traffic accidents on the number of deaths. The grey correlation analysis method is used to determine the main influencing factors and to establish a prediction index system. By constructing the grey prediction model MGM (1) based on grey relation analysis, N), weakens randomness by using the function of grey generating operator, analyzes the inherent relation of road traffic system, and excavates the latent law. Through the exchange between grey difference equation and grey differential equation, the continuous dynamic differential equation is established by using discrete data sequence, and the road traffic accident in Hebei Province is forecasted. Based on the statistics of road traffic accidents from 2000 to 2011 in Hebei Province, the death toll was predicted and the accuracy was tested. The empirical results show that the multi-factor grey prediction model based on grey correlation analysis is feasible and effective. Compared with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model, this method can predict the development situation of traffic accidents more reasonably, scientifically and accurately, and can provide management and decision-making basis for traffic related departments.
【學位授予單位】：河北科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.31
本文編號：2318570
[Abstract]:The prediction and prevention of road traffic accidents is one of the main means to reduce traffic accidents and improve the level of traffic safety. It has gradually developed into a hot topic in the research of road traffic safety. Road traffic system is a dynamic and uncertain system, and the occurrence of traffic accidents is random. In view of the characteristic of "part information is known, part information is unknown" of road traffic system, the grey system theory is adopted to study the uncertain problem of "small sample, poor information" and the random object with "explicit extension and unclear connotation". Implement "less data modeling". This paper focuses on the study of the influence of macro factors of road traffic accidents on the number of deaths. The grey correlation analysis method is used to determine the main influencing factors and to establish a prediction index system. By constructing the grey prediction model MGM (1) based on grey relation analysis, N), weakens randomness by using the function of grey generating operator, analyzes the inherent relation of road traffic system, and excavates the latent law. Through the exchange between grey difference equation and grey differential equation, the continuous dynamic differential equation is established by using discrete data sequence, and the road traffic accident in Hebei Province is forecasted. Based on the statistics of road traffic accidents from 2000 to 2011 in Hebei Province, the death toll was predicted and the accuracy was tested. The empirical results show that the multi-factor grey prediction model based on grey correlation analysis is feasible and effective. Compared with the GM (1 / 1) prediction model, this method can predict the development situation of traffic accidents more reasonably, scientifically and accurately, and can provide management and decision-making basis for traffic related departments.
【學位授予單位】：河北科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.31
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