【摘要】：目前我國突發(fā)公共事件頻繁發(fā)生，這將在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)對城市管理者和城市居民生活帶來考驗(yàn)，突發(fā)事件的危害和影響越來越受到社會(huì)大眾的重視。合理準(zhǔn)確的應(yīng)急疏散需求預(yù)測和有效的應(yīng)急疏散方案實(shí)施，是使疏散時(shí)間最小，最大限度減少被困人員生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失的重要保障。其中，路徑選擇和交通流分配是應(yīng)急疏散方案的核心內(nèi)容。 本文以大型活動(dòng)突發(fā)事件下的交通應(yīng)急疏散為研究對象，通過參考相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，以及進(jìn)行實(shí)地?cái)?shù)據(jù)調(diào)查，分析了應(yīng)急疏散交通需求和交通特性，建立了疏散路徑的車輛行程時(shí)間模型，編寫了行程時(shí)間模型的應(yīng)用程序，利用最小費(fèi)用最大流理論建立了疏散路徑選擇的網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，并以通化市為對象進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。 本文共分七章，主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章，介紹了論文的研究背景及意義，對國內(nèi)外交通應(yīng)急疏散的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了概述。確定了論文主要研究內(nèi)容和難點(diǎn)，制定了論文技術(shù)路線。 第二章，確定了突發(fā)事件影響范圍，給出了避難場所容量的計(jì)算方法，對了活動(dòng)參與者分類方式進(jìn)行分析，提出了疏散需求總量及疏散車輛需求的預(yù)測方法，對疏散道路交通特性進(jìn)行了介紹。 第三章，對大型活動(dòng)的定義、分類以及特征進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，并結(jié)合大型活動(dòng)背景介紹了突發(fā)事件的定義及分類情況。分析了大型活動(dòng)應(yīng)急疏散特征，闡述了應(yīng)急交通疏散的原則及組織管理措施，制定了針對不同危害等級的應(yīng)急疏散方案。 第四章，根據(jù)基于道路的通行能力、交叉口延誤、ITS設(shè)施等影響因素的路阻函數(shù)，，建立了疏散路徑的車輛行駛時(shí)間模型。使用C語言編寫了行程時(shí)間模型的應(yīng)用程序，通過運(yùn)行程序，計(jì)算出了各條備選的疏散路徑上的疏散時(shí)間。 第五章，利用最小費(fèi)用最大流理論建立了疏散路徑選擇的網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。將應(yīng)急疏散路徑選擇問題轉(zhuǎn)變成最小費(fèi)用最大流的數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃問題。提出了模型的求解算法。對模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，確定了應(yīng)急疏散方案，并驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。 第六章歸納本文完成的內(nèi)容、新意之處及有待進(jìn)一步研究的問題。 通過研究，提出了適應(yīng)我國國情的基于公共交通的大型活動(dòng)交通應(yīng)急疏散方案，豐富了應(yīng)急疏散的理論和方法體系。有助于根據(jù)應(yīng)急疏散的特點(diǎn)，制定更為合理和有效的交通管理政策，為城市應(yīng)急疏散交通規(guī)劃與管理提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, public emergencies occur frequently in our country, which will bring the test to city administrators and urban residents' life for a long time. The harm and influence of unexpected events are paid more and more attention by the public. Reasonable and accurate emergency evacuation demand prediction and effective emergency evacuation plan are the important guarantee to minimize evacuation time and minimize the loss of life and property of trapped persons. Among them, route selection and traffic flow assignment are the core contents of emergency evacuation scheme. In this paper, traffic emergency evacuation under the emergency of large-scale activities as the research object, through reference to relevant literature and field data investigation, the traffic demand and traffic characteristics of emergency evacuation are analyzed. The vehicle travel time model of evacuation route is established, the application program of travel time model is compiled, the network model of evacuation path selection is established by using the minimum cost maximum flow theory, and the empirical analysis is carried out in Tonghua City. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The main contents are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the research status of traffic emergency evacuation at home and abroad. The main research contents and difficulties are determined, and the technical route of the thesis is established. In the second chapter, the influence range of emergency is determined, the method of calculating the capacity of shelter is given, the classification method of activity participant is analyzed, and the method of forecasting the total amount of evacuation demand and the demand of evacuation vehicle is put forward. The traffic characteristics of evacuation road are introduced. In the third chapter, the definition, classification and characteristics of large-scale activities are summarized, and the definition and classification of emergencies are introduced in combination with the background of large-scale activities. This paper analyzes the characteristics of emergency evacuation for large-scale activities, expounds the principles and organizational management measures of emergency traffic evacuation, and formulates emergency evacuation schemes for different hazard levels. In chapter 4, according to the road resistance function based on the road capacity, intersection delay and its facilities, the vehicle travel time model of the evacuation path is established. The application program of travel time model is written in C language, and the evacuation time on each alternative evacuation path is calculated by running program. In chapter 5, the network model of evacuation path selection is established by using the minimum cost maximum flow theory. The problem of emergency evacuation path selection is transformed into a mathematical programming problem of minimum cost and maximum flow. An algorithm for solving the model is proposed. The model is analyzed empirically, the emergency evacuation scheme is determined, and the validity of the model is verified. The sixth chapter summarizes the content of this paper, new ideas and problems to be further studied. Based on the research, the scheme of emergency evacuation based on public transportation is put forward, which enriches the theory and method system of emergency evacuation. It is helpful to formulate more reasonable and effective traffic management policies according to the characteristics of emergency evacuation and to provide decision basis for urban emergency evacuation traffic planning and management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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