【摘要】：以船舶火災(zāi)為背景,建立了適用于船舶艙室火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的方法。首先確定了艙室起火頻率模型以及主要消防措施的可靠性,然后采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)建立了火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景發(fā)生概率模型。其次對(duì)船舶艙室火災(zāi)的不確定性參數(shù)進(jìn)行了分析,并將蒙特卡洛模擬與雙區(qū)火災(zāi)模型結(jié)合對(duì)場(chǎng)景發(fā)生危險(xiǎn)的概率進(jìn)行計(jì)算。最后,對(duì)實(shí)船典型結(jié)構(gòu)艙室進(jìn)行了算例。結(jié)果表明:艙室人員發(fā)生火災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)的概率(2.011×10-3)大于設(shè)備發(fā)生火災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)的概率(7.155×10-4);當(dāng)艙室起火時(shí),噴淋對(duì)艙室人員安全幾乎沒(méi)有影響,無(wú)論有無(wú)噴淋,煙氣沉降到危險(xiǎn)臨界高度的時(shí)間都很短,均值約為9 s;噴淋對(duì)艙室設(shè)備有很好的保護(hù)作用,無(wú)噴淋的艙室最高溫度均值為292℃,有噴淋的艙室最高溫度均值為141℃。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of ship fire, a method for fire risk analysis of ship compartment is established. First, the fire frequency model and the reliability of the main fire prevention measures are determined, and then the probability model of fire scene is established by using Bayesian network. Secondly, the uncertain parameters of ship compartment fire are analyzed, and the probability of scene hazard is calculated by combining Monte Carlo simulation with two-zone fire model. Finally, an example is given for the typical structural compartment of a ship. The results show that the probability of fire hazard to cabin personnel (2.011 脳 10 ~ (-3) is higher than that of equipment (7.155 脳 10 ~ (-4), and that spraying has little effect on the safety of cabin personnel when the compartment is on fire, regardless of whether it is sprayed or not. The time of smoke deposition to the critical height of danger is very short, the average value is about 9 s, the spraying has a good protective effect on the cabin equipment, the average maximum temperature of the room without spraying is 292 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：2221898