發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-04 06:26

【摘要】：在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展中,國(guó)內(nèi)旅游業(yè)隨著人民生活水平的提高進(jìn)入高速發(fā)展的時(shí)期。但是由于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不均衡性,國(guó)內(nèi)各地區(qū)的旅游業(yè)發(fā)展也有快有慢。在西部地區(qū),旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展就大大滯后于全國(guó)平均水平。其中最重要的原因之一就是旅游交通發(fā)展的滯后,包括兩方面：旅游交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不足和旅游交通管理水平低下。為合理規(guī)劃旅游交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和提高旅游交通管理水平,及時(shí)、準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)域旅游交通量就顯得無(wú)比重要。 本文首先對(duì)旅游交通的特性進(jìn)行分析,以便后面研究中模型的構(gòu)建。由于區(qū)域旅游交通和傳統(tǒng)城市交通的交通特性存在很大的差別,需要對(duì)區(qū)域旅游交通小區(qū)劃分進(jìn)行重新研究。本文提出了旅游交通小區(qū)劃分中的原則、步驟和模糊聚類(lèi)分析的方法,并使用Matlab編程進(jìn)行實(shí)例的計(jì)算。在旅游交通生成預(yù)測(cè)中,采用旅游人次作為單位。由于傳統(tǒng)旅游學(xué)中旅游人次和旅游交通中人次的區(qū)別,需要建立模型對(duì)兩者進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換。本文通過(guò)雙約束重力模型對(duì)旅游交通分布進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),提出新的約束條件以符合旅游交通的特點(diǎn)。在交通方式劃分中,通過(guò)相關(guān)模型將旅游人次分布量轉(zhuǎn)化為旅游車(chē)輛分布量。由于旅游交通的時(shí)空不均衡性,最后根據(jù)交通分配的結(jié)果,使用季節(jié)分配模型對(duì)旅游交通線路上特定時(shí)期的旅游交通量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),以便于實(shí)際中的交通管理和調(diào)控。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and stable development of national economy, domestic tourism has entered a period of rapid development along with the improvement of people's living standard. However, due to the uneven development of regional economy, tourism development in various regions of China is also fast and slow. In the western region, tourism development lags behind the national average. One of the most important reasons is the lag of the development of tourism traffic, including two aspects: the lack of tourism transport infrastructure and the low level of tourism traffic management. In order to plan tourism traffic infrastructure construction and improve the level of tourism traffic management, it is very important to predict the regional traffic volume in time and accurately. In this paper, the characteristics of tourism traffic are analyzed in order to construct the model. Because of the great difference between the regional tourism traffic and the traditional urban traffic, it is necessary to re-study the division of the regional tourism traffic district. In this paper, the principles, steps and fuzzy clustering analysis method in the division of tourist traffic district are put forward, and the examples are calculated by using Matlab programming. In the forecast of tourism traffic generation, the tourist person-time is used as the unit. Because of the difference between the number of tourists in traditional tourism science and the number of people in tourism traffic, it is necessary to establish a model to convert the two. In this paper, the distribution of tourism traffic is predicted by double constrained gravity model, and a new constraint condition is proposed to meet the characteristics of tourism traffic. In the division of traffic modes, the distribution of tourist passengers is transformed into the distribution of tourist vehicles through the relevant model. Because of the spatial and temporal imbalance of tourism traffic, the seasonal distribution model is used to predict the traffic volume of tourism traffic in a specific period according to the result of traffic allocation, so as to facilitate the traffic management and regulation in practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U12

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本文編號(hào)：2221283