【摘要】：隨著我國社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,投資規(guī)模巨大、影響范圍寬廣、涉及技術(shù)復(fù)雜的大型建設(shè)工程項(xiàng)目層出不窮。越來越復(fù)雜的工程建設(shè),意味著工程質(zhì)量的影響因素也會(huì)越來越多,對施工的質(zhì)量管理工作的要求也變得越來越來高。如何應(yīng)對諸如鐵路隧道項(xiàng)目等建設(shè)項(xiàng)目施工過程中可能遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題,已經(jīng)成為工程項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作的重要挑戰(zhàn)。 本文以項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論框架為依據(jù),采用灰色理論與區(qū)間貝葉斯模型相結(jié)合的方式,通過風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究兩步走的研究思路,結(jié)合某鐵路建設(shè)中的隧道項(xiàng)目實(shí)例,對大型建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行研究。 針對目前我國建設(shè)項(xiàng)目數(shù)據(jù)缺乏,質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作復(fù)雜的特點(diǎn),論文通過將灰色理論以及區(qū)間貝葉斯模型應(yīng)用到工程的質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別以及評價(jià)決策工作中,運(yùn)用組合賦權(quán)的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法從具有貧信息的特征工程項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量問題中挖掘工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素并加以排序；將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別中得到的權(quán)重指標(biāo)與區(qū)間貝葉斯模型相結(jié)合,運(yùn)用區(qū)間值對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的描述能力以及貝葉斯概率的修正能力,完成對施工方案的質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)工作,為項(xiàng)目施工方案決策提供參考意見。本文采用了某鐵路隧道工程項(xiàng)目的質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理實(shí)例,證明了該方法模型的有效性,并依此為大型建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作提出建議和指導(dǎo)。 本文旨在引入從整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別到實(shí)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)的質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理思路,通過使用灰色理論與區(qū)間貝葉斯模型,組成一套可以應(yīng)用于諸如鐵路隧道等大型建設(shè)工程質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的方法。通過合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)識別幫助項(xiàng)目管理工作者有針對性地對可能造成質(zhì)量問題的因素采取合理的防范和管控措施,利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的評價(jià)提高施工方案的質(zhì)量控制,從而進(jìn)一步提升質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作的有效性和可操作性。期待本文使用的理論方法模型能夠在我國的建設(shè)工程質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作中發(fā)揮其指導(dǎo)效用。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's social economy, the investment scale is huge and the scope of influence is wide. The more and more complex project construction, means the engineering quality influence factor also will be more and more, to the construction quality management work request also becomes more and more high. How to deal with the possible risks in construction such as railway tunnel projects has become an important challenge in the quality risk management of engineering projects. Based on the theoretical framework of project risk management and the combination of grey theory and interval Bayesian model, this paper combines a tunnel project in a railway construction with a two-step approach to risk research. Research on quality risk management of large construction projects. In view of the lack of construction project data and the complexity of quality risk management in our country, this paper applies grey theory and interval Bayesian model to project quality risk identification and evaluation decision. The grey relation method of combinatorial weight is used to excavate the risk factors of engineering projects from the quality problems of characteristic engineering projects with poor information, and to combine the weights obtained in risk identification with the interval Bayes model. Using the ability of interval value to describe the risk and the ability of Bayesian probability to modify the risk, the quality risk evaluation of the construction scheme is completed, and the reference for the project construction scheme decision is provided. In this paper, an example of quality risk management in a railway tunnel project is used to prove the validity of the model and to provide advice and guidance for the risk management of large construction projects. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the idea of quality risk management from whole risk identification to actual risk evaluation, by using grey theory and interval Bayesian model. A set of methods can be applied to the quality risk management of large construction projects such as railway tunnels. Through the reasonable risk index identification, the project manager can take reasonable prevention and control measures to the factors that may cause the quality problem, and use the evaluation of the risk index to improve the quality control of the construction scheme. In order to further improve the effectiveness and operability of quality risk management. It is expected that the theoretical model used in this paper can play a guiding role in the quality risk management of construction projects in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U455.1

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