本文選題：城市道路 + 交通突發(fā)事件�。� 參考：《南京理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和人民生活水平的提高,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量日益劇增,交通突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生概率也隨之增加。交通突發(fā)事件不僅會(huì)造成人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,還會(huì)對(duì)城市路網(wǎng)交通造成重大影響。因此,如何根據(jù)事件現(xiàn)場(chǎng)反饋和提取的信息,做好突發(fā)事件下的交通態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估工作,為應(yīng)急部門(mén)的快速響應(yīng)和正確決策提供依據(jù),減小交通突發(fā)事件造成的影響和損失,是交通應(yīng)急管理急需研究的問(wèn)題。 首先,本文系統(tǒng)闡述了突發(fā)事件和城市道路交通突發(fā)事件相關(guān)理論,在對(duì)交通突發(fā)事件進(jìn)行單因素致因分析的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)工程理論和事故致因理論,構(gòu)建了“人-車-交通環(huán)境”三因素耦合致因模型。 其次,將軍事領(lǐng)域的態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估概念和技術(shù)引入智能交通領(lǐng)域,給出了城市道路交通突發(fā)事件態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估的定義；基于態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估的功能模型,構(gòu)建了交通突發(fā)事件態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)估的研究框架,評(píng)估流程分為態(tài)勢(shì)感知理解、交通態(tài)勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)和交通態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià)三個(gè)階段；綜合考慮事件要素、環(huán)境要素、路網(wǎng)要素和運(yùn)作要素等影響因素,建立了態(tài)勢(shì)要素和交通態(tài)勢(shì)指標(biāo)體系,為下步的交通態(tài)勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)和評(píng)價(jià)奠定基礎(chǔ)。 然后,在交通態(tài)勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)階段引入貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),以事件持續(xù)時(shí)間指標(biāo)為例,通過(guò)確定節(jié)點(diǎn)變量、網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)及條件概率分布,進(jìn)而建立了基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)的事件持續(xù)時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)模型,采用GeNIe2.0軟件進(jìn)行了案例仿真分析。最后,建立了交通態(tài)勢(shì)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,通過(guò)案例分析驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性和適應(yīng)性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the scale of cities is expanding, the number of motor vehicles is increasing rapidly, and the probability of traffic emergencies is also increasing. Traffic emergencies will not only cause casualties and property losses, but also have a significant impact on urban road network traffic. Therefore, according to the feedback and information extracted from the scene, how to do the traffic situation assessment under the emergency, provide the basis for the rapid response and correct decision of the emergency department, and reduce the impact and loss caused by the traffic emergency. It is an urgent problem in traffic emergency management. First of all, this paper systematically describes the emergency and urban road traffic emergencies related theories, on the basis of single-factor analysis of traffic emergencies, the use of system engineering theory and accident cause theory. A three-factor coupled cause model of man-car-traffic environment is constructed. Secondly, the concept and technology of situation assessment in military field is introduced into the field of intelligent transportation, and the definition of emergency situation assessment of urban road traffic is given, which is based on the functional model of situation assessment. The research framework of traffic emergency situation assessment is constructed. The evaluation process is divided into three stages: situation awareness understanding, traffic situation prediction and traffic situation evaluation. The influence factors, such as road network elements and operation factors, are established, and the index system of situation and traffic situation is established, which lays a foundation for the prediction and evaluation of traffic situation in the next step. Then, Bayesian network is introduced in the phase of traffic situation prediction. Taking the event duration index as an example, the node variables, network topology and conditional probability distribution are determined. Furthermore, the prediction model of event duration based on Bayesian network is established, and the case simulation analysis is carried out by using the software of Genie 2.0. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of traffic situation is established, and the feasibility and adaptability of the model are verified by case analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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