本文選題：時間序列 + 線性回歸��； 參考：《復旦大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：上海盛明港務有限公司由于碼頭現場操作人員人數眾多、船期密集、作業(yè)箱量急劇上升,以往沒有相關參考數據的情況下,根據經驗來對人員進行調控的方式,給管理者帶來巨大的分配壓力,造成各班組作業(yè)工時差異較大,不能滿足港口現場人員管理的要求。因此,需要對現場工作人員科學合理進行調控。為了避免各班作業(yè)箱量差距增大,提高現場操作人員業(yè)務水平,以船舶的作業(yè)時長為輔助依據,通過時間序列預測給出每個班組未來作業(yè)箱量的發(fā)展趨勢。這樣,既能反映出每個班組現場工作的總體水平和現狀,又能表現出各班組業(yè)務完成情況的發(fā)展及變化規(guī)律,解決了以往很難合理安排作業(yè)人員出勤、工時不平衡、班組總體業(yè)務水平提高困難的問題。首先討論了上海盛明港務有限公司現場作業(yè)人員管理混亂的現狀以及對現場作業(yè)人員調控手段的不足,明確了應用時間序列預測法來分析數據的調控系統(tǒng)的開發(fā),對企業(yè)的生產和發(fā)展具有重要意義。在此基礎上討論安排出勤、出勤人員登記、作業(yè)箱量查詢等主要功能,分析了作業(yè)人員派工、作業(yè)箱量分類匯總等核心流程。然后對人員安排、統(tǒng)計分析等核心子系統(tǒng)進行詳細設計。重點討論了采用基于時間序列的數據挖掘分析方法給出各班作業(yè)箱量的趨勢,以及使用線性回歸法預測出船舶從開工到完工所需的時間,作為輔助調控依據的過程,達到平衡工時的目的。最后,對系統(tǒng)的擴展性、多效性以及投資效益和未來的前景進行簡要分析。
[Abstract]:Shanghai Sheng Ming Port Co., Ltd. has a large number of dock operators, dense shipping time and a sharp rise in the volume of operation boxes. In the past without relevant reference data, the way to regulate the personnel according to experience has brought great pressure on the managers, and the different work hours are different and can not meet the port. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the field staff scientifically and rationally. In order to avoid the large gap in the volume of the work box, improve the operating level of the operators, and take the length of the working time of the ship as the auxiliary basis, the development trend of the future operation box of each class group is predicted by the time series. The overall level and present situation of the work in each group can be reflected, and the development and changing rules of the completion of each group's business can be shown. It is difficult to arrange the workers' attendance, the unbalanced working hours and the difficulties in improving the overall business level of the group. First, the field workers in Shanghai Sheng Ming Port Co., Ltd. have been discussed. The current situation of management confusion and the lack of control means for field workers, it is clear that the application of time series prediction method to analyze the development of the control system of data is of great significance to the production and development of the enterprise. On this basis, it discusses the main functions such as arranging attendance, registration of attendance, inquiry of operation box and so on. The core subsystems, such as the personnel assignment, the volume classification and summary of the operation box, are then designed in detail. The trend of using the data mining analysis method based on time series is discussed, and the time required by the linear regression method to predict the ship's completion from the start to completion is discussed. As a basis for auxiliary control, the purpose of balancing the work time is achieved. Finally, a brief analysis of the expansibility, pleioties, investment benefits and future prospects of the system is made.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U691;TP311.52

【參考文獻】

相關博士學位論文 前1條

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本文編號：2036952