本文選題：高速公路 + 交通事故　； 參考：《長安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國高速公路運(yùn)輸事業(yè)的快速發(fā)展給人們的出行帶來很大的便利，同時(shí)不斷推動(dòng)著各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。另一方面，高速公路的事故發(fā)生率也呈現(xiàn)居高不下的形勢。由于高速公路上行車速度較快，一旦發(fā)生交通事故，所帶來的財(cái)產(chǎn)損失、人員傷亡不可估量，而由交通事故引發(fā)的交通擁堵也屢見不鮮。高速公路事故引發(fā)的交通擁堵，不僅會(huì)對高速公路上的出行者造成極大的出行延誤，嚴(yán)重時(shí)其影響會(huì)蔓延至高速公路所處路網(wǎng)的其他道路上，從而降低整個(gè)路網(wǎng)的通行能力。 交通誘導(dǎo)作為疏散交通的重要措施，能夠有效地降低交通事故擁堵造成的損失，提高路網(wǎng)的整體運(yùn)行效率。本文首先分析了高速公路事故容易引發(fā)擁堵、難于救援的特點(diǎn)，進(jìn)而提出了不同服務(wù)水平、事故形態(tài)下交通誘導(dǎo)的適用性，，并分析了對于不同的出行者而言其主要的交通誘導(dǎo)需求。 通過問卷調(diào)查獲得駕駛員對交通誘導(dǎo)心理認(rèn)知的數(shù)據(jù)，分析駕駛員個(gè)人屬性對其接受交通誘導(dǎo)意愿的影響，確定駕駛員接受交通誘導(dǎo)的時(shí)間忍耐度、節(jié)約時(shí)間界限及繞行距離界限。將調(diào)查分析的結(jié)果應(yīng)用到分流點(diǎn)、分流路徑的確定當(dāng)中，并根據(jù)所確定的分流路徑剩余通行能力，判斷高速公路可以分流的交通量。 運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件SPSS擬合出誘導(dǎo)分流的logit離散選擇模型�；谝幌盗械睦碚摲治�，以京昆高速公路某處發(fā)生事故為例，制定適宜的交通誘導(dǎo)方案。通過擬合的logit模型確定每條分流路徑的分流量，一定程度上符合駕駛員接受交通誘導(dǎo)的意愿，后續(xù)還需進(jìn)一步地改善調(diào)查方案及模型的構(gòu)建方法。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of expressway transportation in China brings great convenience for people to travel, and promotes the development of economy in various regions. On the other hand, the accident rate of highway also presents high situation. Because of the high speed on the freeway, once the traffic accident occurs, the property loss and casualties are inestimable, and the traffic jam caused by the traffic accident is also common. The traffic jam caused by the expressway accident will not only cause great travel delay to the travelers on the expressway, but also will spread to other roads of the highway network when serious, thus reducing the capacity of the whole network. As an important measure of evacuation traffic, traffic guidance can effectively reduce the loss caused by traffic accident congestion and improve the overall operation efficiency of the road network. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of freeway accidents which are easy to cause congestion and difficult to rescue, and then puts forward the applicability of traffic guidance under different service levels and accident patterns. The main traffic guidance needs for different travelers are analyzed. The data of drivers' psychological cognition to traffic guidance were obtained by questionnaire, and the influence of drivers' personal attributes on their willingness to accept traffic guidance was analyzed, and the time tolerance of drivers to traffic guidance was determined. Save time limit and circumvent distance limit. The results of investigation and analysis are applied to the determination of diversion points and diverging paths. According to the determined residual capacity of diversion paths, the traffic volume of freeway can be separated is judged. The logit discrete selection model of induced shunt was fitted by statistical software SPSS. Based on a series of theoretical analysis, a suitable traffic guidance scheme was established by taking an accident on Beijing-Kunming Expressway as an example. The fitting logit model is used to determine the flow fraction of each shunt path to a certain extent in accordance with the will of the driver to accept traffic guidance. Further improvement of the investigation scheme and the construction method of the model are needed in the follow-up.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U495;U491.3

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