本文選題：水位變化 + 長(zhǎng)江中游　； 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：受全球氣候變化的影響，近年來(lái)長(zhǎng)江流域的暴雨、干旱等極端氣候頻繁發(fā)生，導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)江中游極端水位的出現(xiàn)時(shí)間或提前或延遲，隨機(jī)性不斷加大，極端高、低水位持續(xù)時(shí)間發(fā)生變化。極端水位變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江航運(yùn)的運(yùn)輸效率、運(yùn)輸安全和運(yùn)輸經(jīng)濟(jì)等方面產(chǎn)生了重大不利影響。在此背景下，論文從航運(yùn)企業(yè)、港口企業(yè)和貨主企業(yè)的角度，深入研究極端水位變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中游航運(yùn)物流成本所涉及的船舶運(yùn)輸成本和港口服務(wù)成本等的影響機(jī)理，并建立相應(yīng)的影響量化模型。在長(zhǎng)江航運(yùn)的航道治理、船型發(fā)展、船舶運(yùn)輸組織、航運(yùn)安全管理、港口建設(shè)與運(yùn)營(yíng)、以及長(zhǎng)江航運(yùn)物流效率等的研究中必須充分考慮極端水位變化的影響，為航運(yùn)物流成本的研究提供支持，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文主要研究工作和結(jié)論如下： 1）在調(diào)研長(zhǎng)江中游水文數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上，采用Mann-Kendall和ARIMA模型深入地分析長(zhǎng)江中游極端水位變化的時(shí)間特征與規(guī)律，研究認(rèn)為：2004～2012年長(zhǎng)江中游各主要水文站洪水期極端水位的年比重相對(duì)比較平穩(wěn)，其中城陵磯與九江站處于極端洪水水位的時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)；除了漢口站外，其他各水文站枯水期極端水位的年比重基本呈從東向西遞減趨勢(shì)，其中宜昌站枯水期極端水位的年比重最大。預(yù)測(cè)2013～2020年各水文站洪水期極端水位的年比重與歷年數(shù)據(jù)相比有所上升，但增幅不明顯；除螺山站和九江站枯水期極端水位的年比重波動(dòng)較大外，其他各水文站均表現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)，年比重較之以前有上升的趨勢(shì)，其中宜昌站和沙市站枯水期極端水位的年比重上升幅度較大。 長(zhǎng)江中游水位變化的空間特征和規(guī)律表現(xiàn)為長(zhǎng)江中游各段每年枯水期處于極端水位的時(shí)間遠(yuǎn)長(zhǎng)于洪水期，其中長(zhǎng)江中游上半段，即宜昌-城陵磯段枯水期極端水位的持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)，這種趨勢(shì)將在未來(lái)一段時(shí)期內(nèi)仍持續(xù)存在。 2）應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)分析了航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)的特征及構(gòu)成，確定了航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)目標(biāo)，即航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)的供給主動(dòng)與需求變化相協(xié)調(diào)。在此基礎(chǔ)上通過(guò)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)相關(guān)理論研究了航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)的組成及其系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的因果關(guān)系，構(gòu)建了主要因素間因果關(guān)系模型；研究了水位作為外生變量與航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)間產(chǎn)生能量交換時(shí)航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的動(dòng)態(tài)傳遞過(guò)程，分析了水位變化對(duì)航運(yùn)物流供給子系統(tǒng)中航道、船舶和港口的影響；在研究航運(yùn)物流成本構(gòu)成的基礎(chǔ)上，揭示了水位變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中游航運(yùn)物流成本所涉及的船舶運(yùn)輸成本和港口服務(wù)成本等的影響機(jī)理，提出了航運(yùn)物流系統(tǒng)在水位變化影響下的適應(yīng)機(jī)制。 3）從航運(yùn)企業(yè)角度出發(fā)，分析了船舶運(yùn)輸成本的構(gòu)成要素，研究了水位變化對(duì)船舶運(yùn)輸成本構(gòu)成要素中的船舶裝載率、船舶航速和船舶等航時(shí)間等因素的影響，分析了水位變化對(duì)不同船型裝載率的影響規(guī)律，在一定假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上提出了水位變化對(duì)船舶運(yùn)輸成本影響的量化模型，并應(yīng)用于具體算例之中。 4）從港口企業(yè)角度出發(fā)，分析了港口企業(yè)在為船舶提供靠泊、貨物裝卸、儲(chǔ)存以及其他相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)過(guò)程中的服務(wù)成本構(gòu)成要素，研究了水位變化對(duì)港口裝卸效率、船舶在港停留時(shí)間的影響，，在一定假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出水位變化對(duì)港口服務(wù)成本影響的量化模型，并應(yīng)用于具體算例之中。 5）從貨主企業(yè)角度出發(fā)，分析了貨物在整個(gè)航運(yùn)物流過(guò)程中的航運(yùn)物流成本的構(gòu)成要素（包含貨物物流成本和貨物時(shí)間成本），研究了水位變化對(duì)貨物時(shí)間成本的影響，綜合水位變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中游船舶運(yùn)輸成本和港口服務(wù)成本影響的量化模型，提出了水位變化對(duì)航運(yùn)物流成本影響的綜合量化模型，并應(yīng)用于具體算例之中。
[Abstract]:Due to the influence of global climate change, the extreme weather, such as rainstorm and drought in the Yangtze River Basin, has occurred frequently in recent years, resulting in the time or advance or delay of the extreme water level in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which has increased randomness, extreme high and low water level. In this context, from the perspective of shipping enterprises, port enterprises and cargo owners, the paper studies the influence mechanism of extreme water level changes on shipping costs and port service costs involved in shipping logistics costs in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and establishes a corresponding quantitative model of impact on the Yangtze River. It has important theoretical and practical significance to give full consideration to the influence of extreme water level changes in the study of shipping channel management, ship type development, shipping organization, shipping safety management, port construction and operation, and the efficiency of the Yangtze River shipping logistics. It is of great theoretical and practical significance. Below:
1) on the basis of the survey of the hydrological data of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the time characteristics and laws of the extreme water level change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are deeply analyzed with Mann-Kendall and ARIMA models. It is considered that the annual proportion of the extreme water level of the main hydrological stations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively stable in 2004~2012 years, and the Chenglingji and JiuJiang Railway Station are in the extreme. In addition to the HanKou Railway Station, the annual proportion of the extreme water level in the dry water period of other hydrological stations is basically from the east to the west, and the annual proportion of the extreme water level of the YiChang Railway Station is the largest. There is no obvious amplitude; the annual gravity fluctuation of the extreme water level of the snail mountain station and the JiuJiang Railway Station is relatively large, and the other hydrological stations are stable, and the annual proportion is higher than before, and the annual proportion of the extreme water level of YiChang Railway Station and Shashi station is higher than that of YiChang Railway Station.
The spatial characteristics and laws of the water level change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River show that the time of the extreme water level in the middle reaches of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is far longer than the flood period, in which the last half of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, that is, the extreme water level in the dry period of the Yichang Chenglingji section, will continue to persist in the period of no period of time.
2) the characteristics and composition of shipping logistics system are analyzed by system dynamics, and the target of shipping logistics system is determined, that is, the supply of shipping logistics system is coordinated with the change of demand. On this basis, the composition of shipping logistics system and the causality in the system are studied through the theory of system dynamics, and the main causes are built. The dynamic transfer process of the water level as an external variable and the shipping logistics system is studied. The influence of the water level change on the navigation channel, the ship and the port in the shipping logistics supply subsystem is analyzed. The influence mechanism of position change on shipping cost and port service cost involved in shipping logistics cost in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is proposed, and the adaptation mechanism of shipping logistics system under the influence of water level changes is put forward.
3) from the point of view of shipping enterprises, the constituent elements of ship transportation cost are analyzed, and the influence of water level change on ship loading rate, ship speed and ship time and so on are studied, and the influence rules of water level change on the loading rate of different ship types are analyzed. On the basis of certain assumptions, the effect of water level change is put forward. The quantitative model of the influence of water level change on ship transportation cost is applied to a specific example.
4) from the port enterprise point of view, this paper analyzes the service cost components of the port enterprises in the process of providing berth, cargo handling, storage and other related business, and studies the effect of water level change on port handling efficiency and the residence time of ships in port. On the basis of a set hypothesis, the change of water level to the port service is put forward. The quantitative model of the impact is applied to a specific example.
5) from the point of view of the cargo owner, this paper analyzes the components of the shipping logistics cost in the whole shipping logistics process, including the logistics cost and the time cost of the goods, and studies the influence of the change of the water level on the time cost of the goods, and the quantification of the influence of the comprehensive water level on the shipping cost and the port service cost of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. A comprehensive quantitative model of the influence of water level change on shipping logistics cost is proposed and applied to a specific example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F552.5

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