本文選題：地鐵盾構(gòu)施工 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理��； 參考：《青島理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著快速推進(jìn)的城市化進(jìn)程，盾構(gòu)法逐漸成為特定地質(zhì)條件下地鐵建設(shè)采用較多的施工方法。地鐵盾構(gòu)施工具有施工周期長(zhǎng)、受環(huán)境制約影響大等特點(diǎn)，且當(dāng)前的施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理還存在一些問(wèn)題，因此，，重視地鐵盾構(gòu)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究，對(duì)地鐵工程盾構(gòu)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析、評(píng)價(jià)并指導(dǎo)工程實(shí)踐就顯得尤為重要。 首先，介紹了研究的背景、目的與意義，探討了國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀，并對(duì)研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行評(píng)述，提出論文的研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法與技術(shù)路線；同時(shí)，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的概念、目標(biāo)與程序進(jìn)行了闡述，介紹了地鐵施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法等理論基礎(chǔ)。 其次，介紹了地鐵隧道盾構(gòu)施工技術(shù)，分析了盾構(gòu)施工的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，并結(jié)合地鐵盾構(gòu)施工的特點(diǎn)，利用專(zhuān)家調(diào)查法、流程圖法、魚(yú)骨圖法，分別從機(jī)械、環(huán)境與施工管理三個(gè)方面對(duì)盾構(gòu)施工流程中各階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源進(jìn)行全面辨識(shí)，建立出一個(gè)全面的指標(biāo)體系，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了ISM解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型，分析了各階段指標(biāo)因素之間的相互影響關(guān)系。 最后，結(jié)合傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析控制方法的特點(diǎn)，探討了運(yùn)用云理論進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析、評(píng)價(jià)與控制的適用性，建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估云模型。以上海地鐵13號(hào)線為例，運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重，通過(guò)對(duì)云進(jìn)行四則運(yùn)算與加權(quán)合成，將定性的評(píng)價(jià)語(yǔ)言轉(zhuǎn)化為云模型中定量的期望、熵與超熵，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)地鐵盾構(gòu)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的整體評(píng)價(jià)，提出相應(yīng)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。該模型能夠?qū)L(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能性與損失程度進(jìn)行綜合定量分析，克服了傳統(tǒng)方法中專(zhuān)家確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的主觀性，兼顧了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的模糊性與不確定性，具有一定的科學(xué)性。 本文對(duì)盾構(gòu)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間的影響關(guān)系進(jìn)行了深入分析，建立了基于熵權(quán)法和云理論的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型，并結(jié)合工程案例進(jìn)行分析與驗(yàn)證，為地鐵施工的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid urbanization process, the shield method has gradually become more construction methods for subway construction under specific geological conditions. The subway shield construction has the characteristics of long construction period and great influence on the environment, and there are some problems in the current construction risk management. Therefore, the research on the risk management of subway shield construction is paid attention to. It is particularly important to analyze, evaluate and guide the construction practice of shield tunneling.
First, it introduces the background, purpose and significance of the research, discusses the status of the research at home and abroad, reviews the research status, puts forward the research contents, methods and technical routes of the paper, and expounds the concept, objectives and procedures of risk and risk management, and introduces the management of subway construction risk and the method of risk management. On the basis.
Secondly, it introduces the shield construction technology of subway tunnel, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of shield construction, and combines the characteristics of the subway shield construction, and uses the expert investigation method, flow chart method and fish bone map method to identify the risk sources in each stage of the shield construction process from three aspects of machinery, environment and construction management. Based on the index system, the ISM interpretation structure model is established, and the interrelationship between the index factors in each stage is analyzed.
Finally, combining the characteristics of the traditional risk analysis control method, this paper probes into the application of cloud theory to risk analysis, evaluation and control, and establishes a risk assessment cloud model. Taking the Shanghai Metro Line 13 as an example, the entropy weight method is used to determine the index weight, and the qualitative evaluation language is transformed into the qualitative evaluation language by four operations and weighted synthesis of the cloud. The quantitative expectation, entropy and entropy in the cloud model, the overall evaluation of the subway shield construction risk is realized, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The model can analyze the risk probability and the degree of loss comprehensively and quantitatively, overcome the subjective of the experts to determine the risk grade in the traditional method, and take into account the fuzziness and uncertainty of the risk evaluation. It has a certain scientific nature.
This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the relationship between the risk factors of the shield construction, establishes a risk assessment model based on entropy weight and cloud theory, and analyzes and verifies the engineering cases, which can provide some reference for the risk management of subway construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U455.43;U231.3

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