本文關(guān)鍵詞：北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)碳排放及減排情景分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)碳排放及減排情景分析

Carbon Emissions and Reduction Scenarios of Transportation in Beijing

[1] [2] [3] [4]

KE Shui-fa WANG Ya CHEN Yi-gang LIU Ai-yu （School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China）

中國人民大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)與農(nóng)村發(fā)展學(xué)院,北京100872

文章摘要：在可持續(xù)發(fā)展的宏觀背景下，節(jié)約有限物質(zhì)和能量資源，減少廢棄物和環(huán)境有害物的排放是環(huán)保、低碳的前提，而交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)是降低碳排放量的重要領(lǐng)域。因此。微觀層面梳理北京交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)展及碳排放狀況，并分析其減排潛力，對于促進(jìn)北京市的低碳發(fā)展同樣具有積極意義。論文闡述了2（R）1—2011年北京交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。并對2005—2011年北京市交通運(yùn)輸能源消費(fèi)而產(chǎn)生的碳排放量進(jìn)行了測算。從各類消費(fèi)能源的碳排放量的動態(tài)變化得出：煤油的碳排放量是北京市交通運(yùn)輸碳排放量的最主要來源。進(jìn)而基于交通運(yùn)輸?shù)哪茉词褂媒Y(jié)構(gòu)、道路調(diào)控政策措施、不同交通方式結(jié)構(gòu)等視角。采用情景分析方法。依次設(shè)置低度、中度和高度三種情景模式．對北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的碳減排情景進(jìn)行了比較分析。研究結(jié)果表明：①北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展．多元化復(fù)合型的交運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)目趨完善；②北京市交通運(yùn)輸?shù)哪茉聪乃a(chǎn)生碳排放量不斷增長。主要原因是大量煤油和柴油能源的耗用；③通過改變交通運(yùn)輸?shù)哪茉词褂媒Y(jié)構(gòu)可以有效調(diào)減北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的碳排放量。基于全文分析得到如下啟示：①北京市交通運(yùn)輸碳排放在未來十年具有較大的減排空間。降低煤油、柴油在能源消費(fèi)總量中所占比例，，提高天然氣、電力在能源消費(fèi)總置中所占的比例，將有助于減少碳排放的總量；②小汽車對于整個(gè)城市交通系統(tǒng)能源消耗量的邊際效應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于其他的交通方式；③北京市機(jī)動車申購搖號制度、機(jī)動車尾號限行措施以及對新能源汽車的大力推廣是控制小汽車快速增長，減少其能源消費(fèi)量和碳排放量的必要政策手段。在城市的發(fā)展過程中。公共交通具有節(jié)地、節(jié)能以及環(huán)保的優(yōu)勢。應(yīng)該大力倡導(dǎo)公共交通，加大城市公共交通的投入力度。使得?

Abstr：Under the background of sustainable development, conservation of energy resources and reduction of waste and environmental emissions is the prerequisite of environmental protection and low carbon development. The transportation is an important field of carbon emissions reduction. It is a positive significance for promoting the low carbon development in Beijing of combing the transportation and carbon emissions status and analyzing the emission reduction potential on the micro-scale. The development status of transportation from 2001 to 2011 in Beijing was elaborated in the paper, and the carbon emissions caused by energy consumption of transportation from 2005 to 2011 were also calculated. Drawn from the dynamic change of carbon emissions of different kinds of energy consumption, kerosene is the main source of transportation emissions in Beijing. On the perspective of energy using structures, road controlling measures and traffic mode structures, the low, moderate and high emission reduction scenarios are set to analyze the carbon emissions reduction of transportation in Beijing. The results is shown as follows ： （~）The transportation in Beijing is keeping sustainable development, and the diversified type transportation network is becoming more and more perfect; （~）The carbon emissions of transportation consumption is on the rise, and the main reason is the wide use of kerosene and diesel oil ; （~ the carbon emissions can be decreased by changing the energy structure of transportation. Some enlightenments are obtained as follows：（~The carbon emissions of transportation has a larger reduction space in the next ten years. Reducing the proportion of kerosene and diesel oil occupied in total energy consumption and inc

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:transportation carbon emissions scenario analysis Beijing

課題項(xiàng)目：北京市自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目“北京市碳排放影響因素、削減潛力及低碳發(fā)展策略研究”（編號：9132012）.

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)碳排放及減排情景分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。