本文選題：大型活動(dòng) + 突發(fā)事件��； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：大型活動(dòng)期間,往往在短時(shí)間內(nèi)集聚了大量人流和車(chē)流,一旦突發(fā)危害性事件,應(yīng)急疏散過(guò)程中的交通需求在時(shí)空上的集中特性尤為突出,增加了城市交通壓力和發(fā)生次生事件的可能性。為提高應(yīng)對(duì)危害性突發(fā)事件能力、保障應(yīng)急交通疏散過(guò)程安全有序,必須合理規(guī)劃應(yīng)急交通疏散方案,如何選擇最優(yōu)疏散方案則成為了應(yīng)急管理部門(mén)的決策難點(diǎn)。要做出對(duì)疏散方案優(yōu)劣的判斷,就需要對(duì)各方案的應(yīng)急交通疏散效率進(jìn)行全面、明確的評(píng)價(jià)。本文因此對(duì)大型活動(dòng)突發(fā)事件下的應(yīng)急交通疏散效率評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)方法展開(kāi)了研究。 首先,本文在總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)大型活動(dòng)和突發(fā)事件進(jìn)行了概念界定,對(duì)應(yīng)急交通疏散效率的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了研究,并總結(jié)了大型活動(dòng)交通特性、區(qū)位特性和運(yùn)行組織特性,歸納了大型活動(dòng)突發(fā)事件的特征。 其次,探討了大型活動(dòng)應(yīng)急交通疏散問(wèn)題及其與一般場(chǎng)合下應(yīng)急交通疏散的區(qū)別和聯(lián)系,分析了應(yīng)急交通疏散過(guò)程和應(yīng)急交通疏散方案內(nèi)容構(gòu)成,研究了大型活動(dòng)應(yīng)急交通疏散的疏散需求、疏散交通流和采取的交通管控措施等交通特性。針對(duì)應(yīng)急交通疏散效率影響因素分析構(gòu)建了疏散效率評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并給出了每一指標(biāo)的度量方法,結(jié)合專(zhuān)家評(píng)分法、信息粒度和粗糙集理論構(gòu)建了基于粗糙集-信息粒度的指標(biāo)篩選模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)約簡(jiǎn),共篩選出包括疏散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、疏散路網(wǎng)連通度等在內(nèi)的11個(gè)指標(biāo)。 最后,運(yùn)用目前已有的評(píng)價(jià)理論,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的AHP判斷矩陣取值方式、基點(diǎn)相對(duì)重要性計(jì)算方法、判斷矩陣修正方法和權(quán)重確定方法進(jìn)行了改進(jìn),并與PPCE模型結(jié)合求解各指標(biāo)的主客觀權(quán)重,設(shè)計(jì)了求解PPCE模型和CAHP模型的基于實(shí)數(shù)編碼的自適應(yīng)遺傳算法(RAGA),構(gòu)建了基于組合賦權(quán)的廣義價(jià)值函數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)模型。為驗(yàn)證所建評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)模型的實(shí)用性,選取一個(gè)虛擬突發(fā)事件下的武漢體育中心應(yīng)急交通疏散場(chǎng)景進(jìn)行實(shí)例運(yùn)用,以Trans CAD作為仿真平臺(tái),得到了疏散路網(wǎng)上流量分配情況及相關(guān)指標(biāo)數(shù)值,并用MATLAB軟件進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)計(jì)算,通過(guò)各方案的應(yīng)急交通疏散效率值對(duì)比篩選出最優(yōu)方案。
[Abstract]:During large-scale activities, a large number of people and vehicles are often gathered in a short period of time. In the event of a sudden and harmful event, the traffic demand in the emergency evacuation process is especially concentrated in time and space. Increased urban traffic pressure and the possibility of secondary events. In order to improve the ability to deal with hazardous emergencies and ensure the safety and order of emergency traffic evacuation process, it is necessary to plan the emergency traffic evacuation scheme reasonably. How to choose the optimal evacuation plan has become the decision-making difficulty of the emergency management department. To judge the advantages and disadvantages of the evacuation scheme, it is necessary to make a comprehensive and clear evaluation of the emergency traffic evacuation efficiency of each scheme. Therefore, the evaluation index system and evaluation method of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency are studied in this paper. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the related research results at home and abroad, this paper defines the concept of large-scale activities and emergencies, studies the connotation of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency, and summarizes the traffic characteristics of large-scale events. Location characteristics and operational organization characteristics, summed up the characteristics of large-scale events emergencies. Secondly, the paper discusses the problem of emergency traffic evacuation in large-scale activities and the difference and relation between emergency traffic evacuation and emergency traffic evacuation in general, and analyzes the process of emergency traffic evacuation and the content of emergency traffic evacuation scheme. In this paper, the evacuation requirements, evacuation flow and traffic control measures of emergency traffic evacuation for large scale events are studied. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the evacuation efficiency of emergency traffic, the evaluation index system of evacuation efficiency is constructed, and the measurement method of each index is given, which is combined with the expert scoring method. Based on information granularity and rough set theory, an index screening model based on rough set and information granularity is constructed, and evaluation index reduction is realized. Eleven indexes, including evacuation risk and connectivity of evacuation network, are screened out. Finally, using the existing evaluation theory, this paper improves the traditional AHP judgment matrix method, the calculation method of the relative importance of the base point, the judgment matrix correction method and the weight determination method. Combining with the PPCE model to solve the subjective and objective weights of each index, an adaptive genetic algorithm based on real coding for solving PPCE model and CAHP model is designed, and a generalized value function evaluation model based on combinatorial weight is constructed. In order to verify the practicability of the evaluation index system and evaluation model, an emergency traffic evacuation scene of Wuhan Sports Center under the virtual emergency was selected to be used as an example, and Trans CAD was used as the simulation platform. The flow distribution and related index values of the evacuation road network are obtained, and the optimal scheme is selected by comparing the evacuation efficiency values of each scheme with the comprehensive evaluation calculation by MATLAB software.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李炎鋒;石勃偉;王超;李俊梅;樊洪明;;城市地下軌道交通火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系模型研究——以某地鐵車(chē)站為例[J];防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工程學(xué)報(bào);2010年06期

2 盧宗華;;層次分析法中判斷矩陣構(gòu)造方法的改進(jìn)[J];系統(tǒng)工程;1990年01期

3 霍良安;黃培清;程云龍;;基于疏散效率的展會(huì)應(yīng)急優(yōu)化問(wèn)題研究[J];工業(yè)工程與管理;2011年04期

4 趙宇寧;黨會(huì)森;;人員密集場(chǎng)所應(yīng)急疏散的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型研究[J];中國(guó)公共安全(學(xué)術(shù)版);2012年02期

5 亓延軍;梅鵬;陸松;;基于模糊層次分析法的某超高層建筑疏散效率分析[J];火災(zāi)科學(xué);2011年04期

6 張勁松;吳筠;;AHP判斷矩陣次序一致性檢驗(yàn)的三角形法[J];九江學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2011年04期

7 劉勇;項(xiàng)莉;謝軍;嚴(yán)寶杰;;城市路網(wǎng)可靠性計(jì)算方法[J];交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)報(bào);2007年03期

8 任常興;張欣;張網(wǎng);呂東;王婕;李晉;;人員密集場(chǎng)所突發(fā)火災(zāi)事故應(yīng)急疏散能力分析[J];中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù);2010年02期

9 王以恒;;基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法的北京市地鐵站應(yīng)急疏散能力仿真評(píng)估模型[J];中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù);2012年01期

10 楊曉華,陸桂華,酈建強(qiáng);自適應(yīng)加速遺傳算法及其在水位流量關(guān)系擬合中的應(yīng)用[J];水文;2002年02期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 唐桂娟;城市自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急能力綜合評(píng)價(jià)研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué);2011年

，

本文編號(hào)：1829900