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  本文選題：出行方式選擇 + 不確定性行為決策　； 參考：《長沙理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通擁堵已經(jīng)成為影響城市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和人民生活水平提高的一個重要因素,建立可持續(xù)的交通發(fā)展模式是根本的解決之道,而了解城市居民出行習慣和出行規(guī)律是必要條件。本文運用前景理論,對城市居民交通出行方式選擇進行研究,旨在完善交通出行行為決策與預測方法,具有較好的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。本文對國內(nèi)外不確定性決策和交通出行方式選擇理論進行了歸納總結(jié),對居民交通出行方式選擇的影響因素進行了分析。針對當前交通出行方式選擇研究存在的兩個不足：忽視不確定性以及不同出行特性出行者存在的偏好差異,將前景理論與區(qū)間分析相結(jié)合,構(gòu)建了基于前景理論的出行方式選擇模型。根據(jù)不同收入、不同目的的出行者對于服務屬性要求的不同,運用“參照系”理論,設(shè)立不同出行特性下的區(qū)間數(shù)“參照點”,以此建立收益損失矩陣,采用區(qū)間運算得到價值函數(shù)值,并以此為效用值構(gòu)建Logit城市居民出行方式選擇模型,運用Matlab進行參數(shù)標定。通過實例,對居民出行方式選擇進行了分析計算,結(jié)果表明,本文提出的方法具有良好的預測性能。本文提出的基于前景理論的出行方式選擇模型,不僅考慮了不確定性影響因素,而且考慮了不同出行目的出行者的偏好差異,更加切合實際,能夠為交通決策者提供更好的決策依據(jù),具有良好的應用前景。
[Abstract]:Traffic congestion has become an important factor affecting the development of urban economy and the improvement of people's living standard. Establishing a sustainable traffic development model is the fundamental solution, and understanding the travel habits and rules of urban residents is a necessary condition. Based on the prospect theory, this paper studies the choice of urban residents' transportation travel mode, aiming at perfecting the decision making and forecasting method of traffic travel behavior, which has good theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, the theory of uncertainty decision and choice of travel mode at home and abroad is summarized, and the factors influencing the choice of travel mode of residents are analyzed. In view of the two shortcomings of the current research on the choice of travel modes: ignoring the uncertainty and the differences in preferences of travelers with different travel characteristics, the foreground theory is combined with interval analysis. A trip mode selection model based on foreground theory is constructed. According to different income and different purpose traveler's request for service attribute, using "reference frame" theory, set up interval number "reference point" under different travel characteristic, thus establish income loss matrix. The value function value is obtained by interval operation, and the model of Logit urban residents' travel mode selection is constructed based on the utility value. The parameters are calibrated by Matlab. The results show that the proposed method has good prediction performance. In this paper, the travel mode selection model based on foreground theory not only takes into account the uncertain factors, but also takes into account the different preferences of travelers with different travel purposes, so it is more practical. It can provide better decision-making basis for traffic decision makers and has a good application prospect.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 張飛飛;劉蓓蓓;畢軍;陳錦;;城市居民交通方式選擇及其影響因素分析——以南京市為例[J];四川環(huán)境;2012年03期

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本文編號：1825749