本文選題：北極航線　切入點(diǎn)：對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：北極科考數(shù)據(jù)顯示,北極變暖速度遠(yuǎn)快于預(yù)期,北冰洋冰層融化速度加快,極有可能在2050年出現(xiàn)夏季無(wú)冰狀態(tài)。北極航線是北冰洋上連通太平洋與大西洋的航道,狹義上分為西北航道和東北航道。北極航線開通后,將成為連接?xùn)|北亞與北美、北歐的海上運(yùn)輸走廊,以最短海上距離連接世界主要生產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)。由于海上運(yùn)輸具有價(jià)格低、運(yùn)量大的特點(diǎn),90%以上的國(guó)際貨物貿(mào)易需要依靠海上運(yùn)輸來(lái)完成,北極航線引起的海上運(yùn)輸路徑改變勢(shì)必在很大程度上影響世界貿(mào)易格局。中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易也依賴于海上運(yùn)輸,且中國(guó)處于、北極航線的延長(zhǎng)線上,北極航線的全線開通必將影響到中國(guó)貿(mào)易,使中國(guó)除現(xiàn)有東向太平洋航線、西向大西洋航線外,增加一條到達(dá)歐洲和北美洲的更為便捷和安全的海上航線。 本文首先闡述了研究背景與意義,國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)展,以及本文的研究方法與框架。緊接著,本文介紹了北極航線自然情況與通航情況現(xiàn)狀,并以宏觀的角度從機(jī)會(huì)和威脅兩方面,定性分析了北極航線通航對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的影響。之后,本文詳細(xì)分析了對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力研究的理論基礎(chǔ),即隨機(jī)前沿模型的產(chǎn)生、發(fā)展和應(yīng)用,以及技術(shù)效率的理論內(nèi)涵和測(cè)算方法。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文選取79個(gè)國(guó)家10年間的面板數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,利用隨機(jī)前沿引力模型對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易與進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易兩方面進(jìn)行估計(jì),證明了海運(yùn)距離與我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易之間的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。根據(jù)所得到的參數(shù)方程與技術(shù)效率值,本文測(cè)算現(xiàn)階段的我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力,以及北極航線通航后我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力,并將兩者進(jìn)行對(duì)比,肯定了北極航線對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力的積極影響。 結(jié)果表明,北極航線通航可以使我國(guó)與樣本國(guó)家的海運(yùn)距離縮短20%-35%,使我國(guó)進(jìn)出口潛力平均提升8.48%,出口潛力平均提升12.85%,若以北極航線開通后的對(duì)外貿(mào)易潛力為目標(biāo),我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易仍有極大的拓展空間。同時(shí),我國(guó)與樣本國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易效率有待提高,以充分發(fā)揮北極航線通航對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的推動(dòng)作用。
[Abstract]:Arctic data show that the Arctic is warming much faster than expected, and that the Arctic ice is melting faster, and that it is likely to be ice-free in summer on 2050. The Arctic route connects the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean. In a narrow sense, it is divided into the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. When the Arctic route is opened, it will become a maritime transport corridor connecting Northeast Asia with North America and Northern Europe. The world's main production markets and consumer markets are connected by the shortest distance at sea. Since maritime transport is characterized by low prices and large volumes, more than 90% of international trade in goods needs to be accomplished by sea transport. The changes in shipping routes caused by the Arctic route are bound to affect the pattern of world trade to a large extent. China's foreign trade also depends on maritime transport, and China is on the extended route of the Arctic route. The opening of the entire Arctic route will affect China's trade, and China will add a more convenient and safe sea route to Europe and North America, in addition to the existing East Pacific and West Atlantic routes. This paper first describes the background and significance of the research, the related research progress at home and abroad, as well as the research methods and framework of this paper. In this paper, the influence of Arctic route navigation on China's foreign trade is analyzed qualitatively from the perspective of opportunity and threat. Then, the theoretical basis of the research on the potential of foreign trade is analyzed in detail, that is, the generation of stochastic frontier model. Development and application, and the theoretical connotation and measurement methods of technical efficiency. Based on this, the panel data from 79 countries over a period of 10 years are selected as the research samples. The stochastic frontier gravity model is used to estimate China's export trade and import and export trade, and the negative correlation between sea transport distance and China's foreign trade is proved. This paper calculates the foreign trade potential of our country at the present stage, and the foreign trade potential of our country after the Arctic route navigation, and compares the two, and confirms the positive influence of the Arctic route on our country's foreign trade potential. The results show that the shipping distance between China and the sample countries can be shortened by 20 to 35 percent, the import and export potential of our country will be increased by 8.48 on average, and the export potential will be increased by 12.85 percent on average. If we aim at the foreign trade potential after the opening of the Arctic route, At the same time, the trade efficiency between China and the sample countries needs to be improved in order to give full play to the role of Arctic route navigation to promote China's foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752;U697.33

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