本文選題：海外EPC工程項(xiàng)目　切入點(diǎn)：承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：海外EPC（設(shè)計(jì)Engineering、采購(gòu)Procurement、施工Construction總承包模式的簡(jiǎn)稱）工程通常為大型項(xiàng)目，不僅受到經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、勞務(wù)、資金、采購(gòu)、運(yùn)輸?shù)仍虻挠绊�，而且與技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、法律法規(guī)、氣候環(huán)境、社會(huì)文化等因素息息相關(guān)，因此決定了它的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性。由于我國(guó)承包商不習(xí)慣EPC模式，理解不透徹EPC合同、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理不當(dāng)，導(dǎo)致某些海外EPC工程處于虧損狀態(tài)。因此，怎樣有效、全面、正確的對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)與控制，是我國(guó)承包商關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。 結(jié)合Z國(guó)M公路EPC項(xiàng)目，識(shí)別分析該項(xiàng)目總承包商的各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，按照風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論，通過定性與定量方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目總承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)展開系統(tǒng)的研究。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括： （1）將該項(xiàng)目承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源分為兩大類：客觀因素導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、承包商自身局限因素導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行全面的識(shí)別分析。其中，客觀因素導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為7類共20個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件，承包商自身局限因素導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為6類共19個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件，總計(jì)39個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件。 （2）針對(duì)客觀因素導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件相互獨(dú)立的特點(diǎn)，采用改良了的專家打分法進(jìn)行定性分析，結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)嚴(yán)重性與可能性進(jìn)行打分，確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。定量分析采用集值法進(jìn)行損失分析、蒙特卡洛計(jì)算機(jī)模擬進(jìn)行概率分析，計(jì)算出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)，確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小并排序。 （3）針對(duì)承包商自身局限導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件相互影響的特點(diǎn)，采用專家打分法與多層次分析法確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重。定量分析則引入灰色理論計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值，，確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小，使評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果更真實(shí)。 （4）建立M公路項(xiàng)目承包商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值較高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素實(shí)施監(jiān)控，隨時(shí)掌握風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)，以減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生。以M公路項(xiàng)目承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀為依據(jù)，提出規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議，供承包商參考。 研究結(jié)果可供EPC總承包商評(píng)估對(duì)外工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)參考，從而識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)、控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失降到最低，從而成功的控制工程成本。
[Abstract]:Overseas EPCs are usually large-scale projects, influenced not only by economic, political, labor, capital, procurement, transportation and other reasons, but also by technical standards, laws and regulations, climate environment, etc. Social and cultural factors are closely related to each other, which determines its high risk. Because our contractors are not used to the EPC model, understand the EPC contract thoroughly, the risk is not handled properly, and some overseas EPC projects are in a state of loss. How to identify, evaluate and control risks effectively, comprehensively and correctly is the focus of our contractors. Combined with the M highway EPC project of Z country, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks of the general contractor of the project. According to the theory of risk evaluation, the risk of the general contractor of the project is studied systematically by qualitative and quantitative methods. The main research contents are as follows:. 1) the risk of the contractor of the project is divided into two categories from the source of risk: the risk caused by objective factors, the risk caused by the contractor's own limitations, and the comprehensive identification and analysis of the risk. The risk caused by objective factors can be divided into 7 types and 20 risk events, while the risk caused by the contractor's own limited factors can be divided into 6 categories and 19 risk events, with a total of 39 risk events. (2) in view of the independent characteristics of the risk events caused by objective factors, the improved expert scoring method is used to carry out qualitative analysis, and the risk severity and possibility are combined to score. The risk grade is determined. The loss analysis is carried out by means of set value method, and the probability is analyzed by Monte Carlo computer simulation. The risk value and risk index are calculated, and the risk magnitude is determined and sorted. 3) according to the characteristics of the interaction between the risk events caused by the contractor's own limitations, the weight of the risk index is determined by the expert scoring method and the multi-level analysis method, while the grey theory is introduced in the quantitative analysis to calculate the risk value and determine the risk magnitude. To make the evaluation more true. 4) establish the risk early warning system of the contractor of M highway project, monitor the risk factors with high risk value, grasp the risk state at any time, in order to reduce the occurrence of risk, take the risk situation of the contractor of M highway project as the basis, Propose risk aversion suggestions for contractor's reference. The results can be used as a reference for EPC general contractor to evaluate the external engineering risk, identify, evaluate and control the risk, reduce the risk loss to the minimum, and control the project cost successfully.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U415.1

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