本文選題：海外EPC工程項目　切入點：承包商風險　出處：《武漢理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：海外EPC（設(shè)計Engineering、采購Procurement、施工Construction總承包模式的簡稱）工程通常為大型項目，不僅受到經(jīng)濟、政治、勞務(wù)、資金、采購、運輸?shù)仍虻挠绊�，而且與技術(shù)標準、法律法規(guī)、氣候環(huán)境、社會文化等因素息息相關(guān)，因此決定了它的高風險性。由于我國承包商不習慣EPC模式，理解不透徹EPC合同、風險處理不當，導致某些海外EPC工程處于虧損狀態(tài)。因此，怎樣有效、全面、正確的對風險進行識別、評價與控制，是我國承包商關(guān)注的焦點。 結(jié)合Z國M公路EPC項目，識別分析該項目總承包商的各類風險，按照風險評價理論，通過定性與定量方法對項目總承包商的風險展開系統(tǒng)的研究。主要研究內(nèi)容包括： （1）將該項目承包商的風險從風險來源分為兩大類：客觀因素導致的風險、承包商自身局限因素導致的風險。對風險進行全面的識別分析。其中，客觀因素導致的風險分為7類共20個風險事件，承包商自身局限因素導致的風險分為6類共19個風險事件，總計39個風險事件。 （2）針對客觀因素導致的風險事件相互獨立的特點，采用改良了的專家打分法進行定性分析，結(jié)合風險嚴重性與可能性進行打分，確定風險等級。定量分析采用集值法進行損失分析、蒙特卡洛計算機模擬進行概率分析，計算出風險值與風險指數(shù)，確定風險大小并排序。 （3）針對承包商自身局限導致的風險事件相互影響的特點，采用專家打分法與多層次分析法確定風險指標的權(quán)重。定量分析則引入灰色理論計算風險值，，確定風險大小，使評價結(jié)果更真實。 （4）建立M公路項目承包商的風險預警系統(tǒng)，對風險值較高的風險因素實施監(jiān)控，隨時掌握風險狀態(tài)，以減少風險的發(fā)生。以M公路項目承包商風險現(xiàn)狀為依據(jù)，提出規(guī)避風險的建議，供承包商參考。 研究結(jié)果可供EPC總承包商評估對外工程風險時參考，從而識別、評價、控制風險，將風險損失降到最低，從而成功的控制工程成本。
[Abstract]:Overseas EPCs are usually large-scale projects, influenced not only by economic, political, labor, capital, procurement, transportation and other reasons, but also by technical standards, laws and regulations, climate environment, etc. Social and cultural factors are closely related to each other, which determines its high risk. Because our contractors are not used to the EPC model, understand the EPC contract thoroughly, the risk is not handled properly, and some overseas EPC projects are in a state of loss. How to identify, evaluate and control risks effectively, comprehensively and correctly is the focus of our contractors. Combined with the M highway EPC project of Z country, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks of the general contractor of the project. According to the theory of risk evaluation, the risk of the general contractor of the project is studied systematically by qualitative and quantitative methods. The main research contents are as follows:. 1) the risk of the contractor of the project is divided into two categories from the source of risk: the risk caused by objective factors, the risk caused by the contractor's own limitations, and the comprehensive identification and analysis of the risk. The risk caused by objective factors can be divided into 7 types and 20 risk events, while the risk caused by the contractor's own limited factors can be divided into 6 categories and 19 risk events, with a total of 39 risk events. (2) in view of the independent characteristics of the risk events caused by objective factors, the improved expert scoring method is used to carry out qualitative analysis, and the risk severity and possibility are combined to score. The risk grade is determined. The loss analysis is carried out by means of set value method, and the probability is analyzed by Monte Carlo computer simulation. The risk value and risk index are calculated, and the risk magnitude is determined and sorted. 3) according to the characteristics of the interaction between the risk events caused by the contractor's own limitations, the weight of the risk index is determined by the expert scoring method and the multi-level analysis method, while the grey theory is introduced in the quantitative analysis to calculate the risk value and determine the risk magnitude. To make the evaluation more true. 4) establish the risk early warning system of the contractor of M highway project, monitor the risk factors with high risk value, grasp the risk state at any time, in order to reduce the occurrence of risk, take the risk situation of the contractor of M highway project as the basis, Propose risk aversion suggestions for contractor's reference. The results can be used as a reference for EPC general contractor to evaluate the external engineering risk, identify, evaluate and control the risk, reduce the risk loss to the minimum, and control the project cost successfully.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U415.1

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