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基于突變理論的應(yīng)急物流通道可靠性評(píng)價(jià)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-02-25 07:12

  本文關(guān)鍵詞: 應(yīng)急物流 物流通道 應(yīng)急物流通道 可靠性 突變理論 出處:《重慶交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:近年,我國(guó)各種自然災(zāi)害多發(fā),氣象災(zāi)害、地質(zhì)災(zāi)害、海洋災(zāi)害、水文災(zāi)害等每年都給國(guó)家和人民的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)帶來(lái)巨大損失。加強(qiáng)災(zāi)害的預(yù)警和防范是各國(guó)各政府的職責(zé),屬于事前控制,非常重要。但同時(shí)當(dāng)災(zāi)害不可避免地發(fā)生后,及時(shí)的災(zāi)害救助就顯得尤為重要。由于應(yīng)急條件下,救援物資的運(yùn)輸調(diào)度具有突發(fā)性和不可預(yù)知性、時(shí)效性、弱經(jīng)濟(jì)性、非常規(guī)性等特征,因此應(yīng)急物流成為研究熱點(diǎn)之一。應(yīng)急物流通道是應(yīng)急物流系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,而且是應(yīng)急物流有效運(yùn)作的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。應(yīng)急物流通道的可靠性是衡量應(yīng)急救援反應(yīng)能力的一個(gè)重要指標(biāo)。 本文以應(yīng)急物流通道可靠性的選擇與評(píng)價(jià)為研究對(duì)象,在闡述國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)應(yīng)急物流及物流通道的概念、分類進(jìn)行了論述,并在此基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了應(yīng)急物流通道的概念。此外,從概念、機(jī)理、特征、應(yīng)用方面介紹了突變理論。 然后,,從應(yīng)急物流通道構(gòu)成角度,分析影響應(yīng)急物流通道可靠性因素,根據(jù)科學(xué)性與可操作性、代表性與獨(dú)立性、持續(xù)性與動(dòng)態(tài)性、定性及定量、通用性與發(fā)展性、全面性與可比性相結(jié)合的原則,構(gòu)建了應(yīng)急物流通道可靠性的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,該指標(biāo)體系主要由應(yīng)急物流通道技術(shù)、應(yīng)急物流通道設(shè)施、應(yīng)急物流通道環(huán)境和應(yīng)急物流通道管理四個(gè)維度組成。此外,還分析表明了各個(gè)指標(biāo)的篩選和量化方法。 在比較專家定性判斷法、綜合評(píng)分法、層次分析法、模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)法等方法后,建立了基于突變?cè)u(píng)價(jià)法的評(píng)價(jià)模型。最后,通過(guò)案例分析驗(yàn)證了應(yīng)急物流通道可靠性的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系及評(píng)價(jià)模型與方法的可行性和有效性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the occurrence of various kinds of natural disasters in China, meteorological disasters, geological disasters, marine disasters, hydrological disasters and so on have brought huge losses to the lives and property of the country and the people every year. It is the responsibility of the governments of all countries to strengthen the early warning and prevention of disasters. It is very important to control in advance, but at the same time, the timely disaster relief is especially important when the disaster inevitably occurs. Because of the emergency condition, the dispatch of the relief material is unexpected, unpredictable and timely. Because of its weak economy and unconventional characteristics, emergency logistics has become one of the research hotspots. Emergency logistics channel is an important part of emergency logistics system. The reliability of emergency logistics channel is an important index to measure the ability of emergency rescue response. This paper takes the reliability selection and evaluation of emergency logistics channel as the research object. On the basis of expounding the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper first discusses the concept and classification of emergency logistics and logistics channel. On this basis, the concept of emergency logistics channel is summarized. In addition, the catastrophe theory is introduced from the aspects of concept, mechanism, characteristics and application. Then, from the point of view of emergency logistics channel composition, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the reliability of emergency logistics channel, according to the scientific and operational, representativeness and independence, persistence and dynamic, qualitative and quantitative, generality and development. Combining the principle of comprehensiveness and comparability, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of emergency logistics channel reliability, which is mainly composed of emergency logistics channel technology, emergency logistics corridor facilities, The emergency logistics channel environment and the emergency logistics channel management are composed of four dimensions. In addition, the selection and quantification methods of each index are also analyzed. After comparing the methods of expert qualitative judgment, comprehensive scoring, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and data envelopment, an evaluation model based on catastrophe evaluation is established. The feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation index system, evaluation model and method of emergency logistics channel reliability are verified by case analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:U116

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