本文關(guān)鍵詞： 路面管理系統(tǒng) 服務(wù)性能 動態(tài)加權(quán)評價 線性回歸 預(yù)測模型　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：高速公路是一種現(xiàn)代化的運輸通道，對經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展起著越來越重要的作用。近年來，隨著高速公路的蓬勃發(fā)展，我國高速公路的通車里程迅速增長，為全社會帶來巨大的社會經(jīng)濟效益。高速公路的養(yǎng)護任務(wù)也隨之愈來愈重，養(yǎng)護管理工作也日益復(fù)雜。 公路的養(yǎng)護，我們提倡預(yù)防為主，在前期發(fā)現(xiàn)問題隱患并及早修正，避免后期災(zāi)害出現(xiàn)時大規(guī)模的投入，在一定程度上節(jié)約了資金，也提升了公路作為公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的服務(wù)水平。我國很早就意識到了預(yù)防性養(yǎng)護的重要性，并著手研究，時至今日，已存在眾多使用性能評價方法，但大多數(shù)仍然是針對傳統(tǒng)的養(yǎng)護模式，不適應(yīng)于當(dāng)下所面臨的種種新問題。我們通過對高速公路路面早期破壞現(xiàn)象的調(diào)查，運用合適的評價方法進行評價，并建立切合實際的性能預(yù)測模型，繼而為養(yǎng)護決策做出依據(jù)，仍然具有十分重要的意義。對建設(shè)單位的建設(shè)投資、養(yǎng)護單位的養(yǎng)護費用以及基于使用者視角的路面服務(wù)水平都影響重大，，直接影響各方的經(jīng)濟效益。 就目前來說，我國的評價體系主要是針對普通瀝青路面的。本文通過分析瀝青路面服務(wù)水平下降的原因，進而測定路面的結(jié)構(gòu)強度、損壞狀況、行駛質(zhì)量、安全性能四種評價指標，在此基礎(chǔ)上計算路面行駛質(zhì)量指數(shù)（RQI）、路面抗滑性能指數(shù)（SRI）、路面狀況指數(shù)（PCI）以及路面結(jié)構(gòu)強度指數(shù)（PSSI），最終以該四項指標計算路面養(yǎng)護質(zhì)量指數(shù)PQI，并將路面養(yǎng)護質(zhì)量指數(shù)作為評價的最終標準。針對評價體系過于單一，權(quán)重賦值過于主觀的情況，在模糊評價的基礎(chǔ)上采用了動態(tài)賦權(quán)值的方法，探討了性能評價的新方法。 通過路面綜合性能評價，結(jié)合相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和影響道路服務(wù)性能的主要因素，對性能預(yù)測模型進行了研究。在綜合分析力學(xué)預(yù)測模型、力學(xué)一經(jīng)驗預(yù)測模型、經(jīng)驗回歸預(yù)測模型和概率型預(yù)測模型等各種模型優(yōu)、缺點的基礎(chǔ)上，嘗試運用線性回歸分析法，根據(jù)實測數(shù)據(jù)對表征路面服務(wù)性能的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進行預(yù)測，對其中部分預(yù)測值用實測數(shù)據(jù)進行檢驗，確定了線性回歸分析方法的可行性與有效性。
[Abstract]:Expressway is a modern transportation channel, which plays a more and more important role in the development of economy. In recent years, with the vigorous development of freeway, the mileage of expressway in our country is increasing rapidly. It brings great social and economic benefits to the whole society. The maintenance task of expressway is becoming more and more serious, and the maintenance and management work is becoming more and more complicated. Highway maintenance, we advocate prevention, in the early detection of hidden trouble and early correction, to avoid large-scale investment in late disasters, to a certain extent saved funds. The service level of highway as public infrastructure has also been improved. Our country has realized the importance of preventive maintenance for a long time, and began to study, up to now, there are many performance evaluation methods. However, most of them are still aimed at the traditional maintenance mode, which can not adapt to all kinds of new problems. Through the investigation of the early damage phenomenon of highway pavement, we use the appropriate evaluation method to evaluate. It is still of great significance to establish a practical performance prediction model and then make the basis for the maintenance decision. It is still of great significance to the construction investment of the construction unit. The maintenance cost of the maintenance unit and the pavement service level based on the perspective of the user have a great impact on the economic benefits of all parties. At present, the evaluation system of our country is mainly aimed at the ordinary asphalt pavement. This paper analyzes the reasons of the decline of the service level of the asphalt pavement, and then determines the structure strength, damage condition and driving quality of the pavement. On the basis of four evaluation indexes of safety performance, the road quality index (RQI) and the pavement anti-skid performance index (SRI) are calculated. The pavement condition index (PCI) and the pavement structural strength index (PSSI) are used to calculate the pavement maintenance quality index (PQI). The pavement maintenance quality index is regarded as the final standard of evaluation. Aiming at the situation that the evaluation system is too single and the weight assignment is too subjective, the method of dynamic weighting value is adopted on the basis of fuzzy evaluation. A new method of performance evaluation is discussed. Through the comprehensive performance evaluation of pavement, combined with the relevant data and the main factors affecting the performance of road service, the performance prediction model is studied. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of various models, such as empirical regression prediction model and probabilistic prediction model, this paper attempts to use linear regression analysis method to predict the related data which represent the pavement service performance according to the measured data. The feasibility and validity of the linear regression analysis method are determined by testing some of the predicted values with the measured data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U418.6

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