本文關鍵詞： 并線決策 OD分類 MNL模型 客流轉移　出處：《西南交通大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國城市化進程的加快和新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設戰(zhàn)略的提出,交通基礎設施在我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的征程中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用。越來越多的城市將交通問題放在了提升城市形象、發(fā)展城市經(jīng)濟的首位。在“公交優(yōu)先戰(zhàn)略”的引導下,城市軌道交通建設成為當代城市交通發(fā)展的一個主要內容。然而,軌道網(wǎng)絡建設不能一蹴而就,需要經(jīng)過漫長的時期。目前,我國大部分城市處于軌道建設初期,軌道線網(wǎng)形成尚缺氣候,而絕大多數(shù)城市在開通首期軌道交通線路時,對原有的公交路線結構調整經(jīng)驗不足。特別是城市中僅存在單條軌道的時候,其配套服務水平低導致其吸引范圍有限,吸引強度欠佳。此時人們容易高估其“公交骨干”的作用而遵循“平行減弱,垂直加強”的公交調整定則,放棄與之并線的常規(guī)公交線路,以至于在軌道交通開通之后造成居民出行不便。 目前,常規(guī)公交規(guī)劃部門對于地鐵新線開通后,并線的常規(guī)公交的調整決策是采取“社會實驗”法,即地鐵新線開通,保留常規(guī)公交持續(xù)開通一段時間,觀察其客流變化,來決定常規(guī)公交的去留。這樣的做法容易導致社會資源的浪費和城市交通結構反復地變化,造成整個交通系統(tǒng)秩序混亂。因此,需要研究科學合理的方法,在地鐵開通前積極預測并線走廊的客流變化,制定并線公交的調整方案,以期地鐵開通后,客流能達到平穩(wěn)過渡。 本文基于個人出行調查,確定影響并線通道內方式選擇的主要因素；利用非集計模型科學、合理地分析地鐵新線開通后,公共交通客流從并線常規(guī)公交轉移到軌道交通的規(guī)律,判斷未來公共交通運輸結構,并以此作出正確的規(guī)劃和決策。最后對影響并線問題的主要原因做出靈敏度分析,確定影響因素的影響程度以供決策者判斷。 將該方法運用到成都地鐵1號線和常規(guī)公交16路的案例中,預測成都地鐵1號線新線開通之后16路車的轉移率,收集16路車在地鐵開通前后運營資料,與計算結果進行對比,驗證方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's urbanization process and the proposed new urbanization construction strategy. Transportation infrastructure plays a more and more important role in the journey of economic and social development in China. More and more cities put traffic problems in the promotion of the image of the city. Under the guidance of "bus priority strategy", urban rail transit construction has become a main content of contemporary urban transportation development. However, rail network construction can not be accomplished overnight. It needs a long period. At present, most cities in our country are in the initial stage of track construction, the rail network is still lack of climate, and most cities are opening the first phase of rail transit lines. The adjustment of the original bus route structure is inexperienced. Especially when there is only a single track in the city, its low level of supporting services leads to its limited scope of attraction. At this time, people tend to overestimate the role of "bus backbone" and follow the "parallel weakening, vertical strengthening" bus adjustment rules, and give up with the conventional bus lines. So that after the opening of rail transit caused inconvenience to residents. At present, after the opening of the new subway line, the adjustment decision of the routine transit line of the routine transit planning department is to adopt the "social experiment" method, that is, to open the new subway line for a period of time. Observe the change of passenger flow to determine the regular bus. Such a practice can lead to the waste of social resources and the repeated changes of urban traffic structure, resulting in the chaos of the whole traffic system. It is necessary to study scientific and reasonable methods to actively predict the passenger flow changes in the corridor before the subway is opened and to formulate the adjustment scheme of the parallel line public transport so as to ensure the smooth transition of the passenger flow after the opening of the subway. Based on the personal travel survey, this paper determines the main factors that affect the choice of mode in the parallel channel. By using the science of disaggregate model, this paper reasonably analyzes the law of public transport passenger flow transferring from conventional public transportation to rail transit after the new subway line is opened, and judges the future public transport structure. Finally, sensitivity analysis is made to determine the influence degree of the influencing factors for decision makers. The method is applied to the cases of Chengdu Metro Line 1 and bus Line 16, and the transfer rate of the 16 bus after the opening of the new line of Chengdu Metro Line 1 is predicted, and the operation data of the 16 bus before and after the opening of the subway are collected. Compared with the calculated results, the feasibility of the method is verified.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 趙鵬,藤原章正,杉惠賴寧;SP調查方法在交通預測中的應用[J];北方交通大學學報;2000年06期

2 王方,陳金川,陳艷艷;交通SP調查的均勻設計方法[J];城市交通;2005年03期

3 黎江,范巍,楊承東;城市軌道交通票價及計費方法的探討[J];都市快軌交通;2005年03期

4 孫楊;宋瑞;何世偉;;彈性需求下的接運公交網(wǎng)絡設計[J];吉林大學學報(工學版);2011年02期

5 覃運梅;王玲玲;;基于遺傳算法的公交發(fā)車間隔模型[J];交通標準化;2009年Z1期

6 李震;;成都地鐵1號線天府廣場停站時間研究[J];交通運輸工程與信息學報;2011年02期

7 倪亞洲;劉星昊;;基于非集計模型的居民公交出行次數(shù)選擇行為研究[J];交通與運輸(學術版);2012年01期

8 富曉艷;雋志才;宗芳;;基于非集計選擇模型的長春市居民出行數(shù)據(jù)分析[J];交通運輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2007年05期

9 何明;過秀成;冉江宇;吳才銳;祝偉;劉超平;;基于非集計MNL模型的軌道交通方式預測[J];交通運輸系統(tǒng)工程與信息;2010年02期

10 周韜;邵敏華;;與軌道線平行的常規(guī)公交線路優(yōu)化方法研究[J];公路工程;2011年05期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 雷磊;城市與區(qū)域一體化的出行需求分析理論與方法研究[D];西南交通大學;2010年

，

本文編號：1459436