本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市交通 可持續(xù)發(fā)展 評(píng)價(jià) 熵權(quán) 未確知測(cè)度 置信度識(shí)別準(zhǔn)則　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，城市交通擁堵現(xiàn)象愈加嚴(yán)重、城市環(huán)境質(zhì)量日趨惡化、自然資源日益緊缺，這些問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重影響著城市經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。交通系統(tǒng)是城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中的一個(gè)重要分支，其可持續(xù)發(fā)展是城市實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)性發(fā)展的基本保障。只有與城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境及資源協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，城市交通系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略才會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。城市交通系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展綜合評(píng)價(jià)是衡量城市交通系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度的重要措施。通過(guò)對(duì)城市交通系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)及分析，才能全面了解城市交通系統(tǒng)與城市經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、環(huán)境及資源是否協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，進(jìn)而指導(dǎo)決策者改善城市交通發(fā)展環(huán)境，保證城市交通系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本論文根據(jù)未確知測(cè)度理論，建立城市交通可持續(xù)發(fā)展綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。在綜合考慮影響城市交通發(fā)展因素的基礎(chǔ)上，從城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、交通需求、環(huán)境質(zhì)量及資源消耗4個(gè)方面進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的選取，提出城市交通發(fā)展的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。針對(duì)影響城市交通發(fā)展的不同影響因素，利用熵權(quán)系數(shù)法計(jì)算各不同影響因素的指標(biāo)權(quán)重，并根據(jù)實(shí)際情況，分別對(duì)其進(jìn)行定性、定量分析。再按照置信度識(shí)別準(zhǔn)則進(jìn)行等級(jí)劃分，，根據(jù)得分情況對(duì)近6年的河北省某城市交通發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行排序比較，最后得出城市交通系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的綜合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。將該方法應(yīng)用于某城市的交通發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)中，試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，基于未確知測(cè)度的評(píng)價(jià)模型可以合理、有效地對(duì)城市交通發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行綜合性評(píng)價(jià)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's social economy, the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious, the quality of urban environment is deteriorating day by day, and the natural resources are increasingly scarce. These problems seriously affect the urban economy and society. Sustainable development of environment. Traffic system is an important branch of urban social economic system. Its sustainable development is the basic guarantee of sustainable development of city. Only with urban social economy. Coordinated development of environment and resources. The sustainable development strategy of urban transportation system can only be realized. The comprehensive evaluation of sustainable development of urban transportation system is an important measure to measure the degree of sustainable development of urban transportation system. Evaluation and analysis. In order to fully understand whether the urban transportation system and urban economy, society, environment and resources develop harmoniously, and then guide the decision-makers to improve the urban traffic development environment and ensure the sustainable development of urban transportation system. Based on the theory of unascertained measure, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of urban traffic sustainable development. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the factors affecting urban traffic development, the urban economic development and traffic demand are considered. Four aspects of environmental quality and resource consumption are selected, and the evaluation index system of urban traffic development is put forward, aiming at the different influencing factors of urban traffic development. Entropy weight coefficient method is used to calculate the index weight of different influencing factors, and according to the actual situation, it is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and then classified according to the confidence recognition criterion. According to the score of a city in Hebei Province in recent 6 years of traffic development level of ranking comparison, finally, the comprehensive evaluation of urban traffic system development results, the application of this method in a certain city traffic development evaluation. The experimental results show that the evaluation model based on unascertained measure is reasonable and effective for comprehensive evaluation of urban traffic development level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U12

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